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Nonprofit Radio for January 20, 2017: 2016 Giving Report & 2017 Forecast

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Rob Mitchell, Paul Schervish & Doug White: 2016 Giving Report & 2017 Forecast

No need to wait until June! Atlas of Giving CEO Rob Mitchell releases the Atlas’ analysis of last year’s giving and their initial forecast for 2017. Also, insightful commentary from professors Paul Schervish from Boston College and Doug White from Columbia University.

 


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Hello and welcome to tony martignetti non-profit radio big non-profit ideas for the other ninety five percent it’s inauguration day today we have a listener of the week i know which is more important for non-profit radio listener of the week is more important. Karen graham she e mailed me your whole hair thing is cracking me up. Thank you for bringing that joy into my day. Well, karen, thank you for taking such an interest in my exceedingly long hair. Longest it’s ever been in my life. I’m glad it brings you joy and i would ask you to speak to my mother about this, please, because she is routinely reminding me that her salon also cuts men’s hair on dh she’s threatening scissors while i’m sleeping, so i’ll give you her contact info. Ah, now karen is executive director of idealware, which i admire very much idealware dot or ge, i did a video praising them a few weeks ago, which you’ll find at tony martignetti dot com i don’t think you’ll find the video at idealware dot orc, which i’m most disappointed about franklin att leased a link you could’ve shared the link, i thought, but idealware is a very good organization dahna karen graham, executive director congratulations on being our listener of the week. I’m glad you’re with me. I’d be stricken with keto acid urea if you rained down on me with the idea that you missed today’s show twenty sixteen giving report and the twenty seventeen forecast no need to wait until june. Atlas of giving ceo rob mitchell releases the atlases analysis of last year’s giving and their initial forecast for twenty seventeen also have insightful commentary from professor of paul schervish for boston college and doug white on tony’s. Take two videos from the non-profit technology conference we’re sponsored by pursuant full service fund-raising data driven and technology enabled, you’ll raise more money pursuant dot com, and by we be spelling supercool spelling bee fundraisers. Wee bey e spelling dot com i’m very glad to welcome rob mitchell back he’s uh, but on the show three, four times or so he’s, the ceo of atlas, of giving, you’ll find that at atlas of giving dot com he’s at philanthropy man or, as i like to say at philantech roman, which he probably gets tired of hearing me say, but it’s my show. I do whatever the hell i want. Is that philanthropy? Hman? That’s the end of it. Welcome back, rob mitchell. Thanks, tony it’s. Always great to be with you. It’s. A pleasure to have you. Thanks for coming up from texas. Thank you very much. So you’re you’re here to well, you’re here to release the the review of twenty sixteen and the forecast for twenty seventeen remind us, please. What is going on it atlas of giving. What is this all about? Atlas of giving at the atlas of giving what we do is we measure and forecast charitable giving by sector by source and by state, including washington d c and we release our information monthly it’s. Our forecast is updated each month. Our calculation of giving is updated by sector source and state each month. And our methodology is based on sixty five algorithms. What we did was we we had a team of twenty five phd level statisticians and analyst revue factors that we thought affected giving and two that they they added fifty percent mohr and they actually determined and what fact? What economic? Demographic and event factors are involved in charitable giving. And what their relative weights were for each category. For instance, the algorithm for corporate giving is very, very different from the algorithm for ah ah, church giving let’s say, so this this there are some commonalities, but they’re also. And when i say when i say correlation, this is based on what’s called correlation science a correlation, even a strong one does not necessarily indicate that that there is a relationship, and one example i’ll give you is that in our in our corporate giving algorithm, one of the key factors is auto parts sales. Now we don’t for a minute believe that auto parts sales have anything to do with charitable giving, but there is a strong there is a strong relation that variable correlates with that form of giving exactly for reasons that we could speculate. But in numerical regression analysis, those factors air correlated those two variables exactly correlated and just just so you know, this is the same kind of technology that the fed uses hedge funds use. I trust you, you’re a bona fide and and interestingly enough, the the auto parts sales is also part of one of the feds algorithms we found out so and one of the things we found recently because we’re continually trying to improve our algorithms and learned from them is that large equipment manufacturing index has a strong correlation with national giving. Okay, all right. We’re not gonna go too much into the mechanics of the details of it. Okay, but that’s, interesting large equipment manufacturing. And what was i just i’m sorry. What part in order parts sales, uh, related to fund-raising who knew, right? We do. We do now. Okay. You have a headline for us. Let’s. First talk about what, twenty sixteen looked like for fund-raising. What happened? Well, in twenty sixteen, we had a record year for dollars given, and the dollars given was just shy of half a trillion dollars. It was four hundred ninety seven point four billion dollars given nationally doll causes. How does that relate to twenty fifteen? That is a four point one percent increase. Okay, over twenty fifteen. And what was twenty fifth? Twenty fourteen to twenty. Fifteen. Remember that? What was that increase? It was it was a double digit increases. Wass it? Wass okay. We’re coming on the tail end of the recession, i guess. Well, a lot of that had to do with what was happening in the stock market. And we’ll talk more about that. Ok, as we go on, okay, maura that alright. So four point, one percent increase from fifteen to sixteen were just under half a billion, half a trillion dollars in giving for one other important point to make is that. For for most people who are affiliated with non-profits or the non-profit industry, they have assumed, based on other information, that charitable giving has been pegged at two percent of real gdp for as long as we can remember. Yes, you have an announcement for this. Go ahead, we have we have charitable giving at almost three percent of real gdp, so two point nine, seven percent of real gdp and that is huge because the country has been talking about the stalled percentage of two percent of gdp for a long time. I mean, it certainly the six years that i’ve been doing this and probably longer than that. So now you’re putting at just under three percent of gdp, which is enormous, fifty percent increase your saying yes, all right, all right. And there’s a reason why, okay, we’re gonna hold that reason, okay? Till after this break, you’re gonna hold that and we’ll go away for a moment. But of course we’ll be back. We’re talking about the twenty sixteen review the twenty seventeen forecast to professors joining us, paul service and doug white. Stay with us. You’re tuned to non-profit radio tony martignetti also hosts a podcast for the chronicle of philanthropy fund-raising fundamentals is a quick ten minute burst of fund-raising insights, published once a month. Tony’s guests are expert in crowdfunding, mobile giving event fund-raising direct mail and donor cultivation. Really, all the fund-raising issues that make you wonder, am i doing this right? Is there a better way there is? Find the fund-raising fundamentals archive it. Tony martignetti dot com that’s marketmesuite n e t t i remember there’s, a g before the end, thousands of listeners have subscribed on itunes. You can also learn maura, the chronicle website, philanthropy dot com fund-raising fundamentals, the better way. Durney welcome back to big non-profit ideas for the other ninety five percent want tease i want to do a little live list, their love just a just a touch of the live listeners college station, texas, raleigh, north carolina and multiple right here in new york, new york, of course we’ve got our listeners abroad will get to those but still it’s a little taste of live listen love for now. All right, almost three percent let’s call a three percent two point nine seven what’s three one hundred’s between friends and colleagues let’s call it three percent of gdp. Why do you believe we’ve had this fifty percent increase? Well, there are a number of reasons they’ve been growing. One is the number of non-profits continues to grow and so now we way have but that’s always been the case and we always assumed to it seemed to be a zero sum game more non-profits entered, i don’t know, fifty thousand a year, so maybe one of the professors has a better number than that. But many, many new every year, and it’s still always stuck at two percent. Well, yes, but now we have technology and so there’s so many more different ways for people to give there’s so many there’s, so many more ways for people who are raising the money to get good information and good targeting about how they’re going to solicit money so fund-raising has become much more efficient, okay? And the only moral if, if that’s if it’s related to technologies, probably more adopting technology that we’ve had for a while, except for maybe you do things like text text to give is that is that that the person that would be one of one that i one that i love is crowdfunding kind of technology where you’re using social media to raise money for a cause? And so that didn’t exist. The other thing that well, i mean, it didn’t just come into existence in twenty sixteen. No, we’ve had crowdfunding no, no, no, no, no. Several years, no and but we didn’t just jump from two percent to three percent and one year either. Okay? It’s been creeping out. So what was the percentage last year? The percentage of gdp? The percentage last year. Wass i don’t remember. Okay, but it was something less than two point nine seven it wass okay, okay. Um all right, so we’re we’re at three percent now. That’s that’s, that’s a big deal. It is a big deal. This has been stale or stagnant. Stay lt’s. Wrong word stagnant for a long time. Okay, um, let’s talk about some of the different sectors that have benefited from this this increase since since last year there four point, one percent increase. I always i’m always crease about religion because religion is you and i have talked over the past couple years has always been a shrinking proportion. It’s been the largest of all the sectors but it’s been a shrinking proportion. Yes, ten years ago, gifts to churches and congregations accounted for fifty percent of all giving in the urals. Now, it’s, what thirty would you have? A thirty one. Thirty two percent metoo and did it lose lose a percent from last year? We’re projecting that it’s going to lose a percent from this year to next year. Okay, so it stayed steady because last year it had lost a percentage. Yes, it from fifteen to sixteen and lost a percent. And i’m pretty sure from fourteen to fifteen lost two percent, so i’ve never talking about that with you. Because now it’s steady. But you’re projecting a loss for next year. Yes. Okay. But it used to be fifty. Used to be fifty now. Thirty two. Okay. And the reason why is that the united states is becoming more like western europe. It’s becoming more secularized. Fewer and fewer people are joining congregations supporting congregations. But what’s interesting is that you mentioned zero sum game? E-giving is still growing so that the gifts air going. Other places. They’re just not going to religion. Yeah, clearly right. And really one of the one of the fastest growing sector of the fastest growing sector over the last three years has been the environmental sector and it is the smallest sector. It only accounts for two percent of all giving. But at the rate it’s growing it’s, it’s, it’s astounding. And then human needs organizations have also done quite well and education. The education sector has grown. Those air the three fastest growing sectors and have been for the last three. Well, really, since the end of the recession? Um, education is explained by the way that they raise money because one of the things we found at the alice of giving is that it’s not so much about the quote economy, its factors in the economy, it’s factors of demographic that’s because about your algorithms, you’re your algorithms have found the variables, the aii factors that that car late with e-giving so are two professors air well well acquainted with the fact that most universities go from campaign to campaign and lots of campaign contributions come out of come out of aa gains in the stock market or gains in real estate. And so when the stock market does well, education does well about the environment. What what’s what’s happening there? I think that the biggest factor in the environment is awareness you can’t not. You cannot turn on any of your i once heard a guy say a few years ago that the time has come when you can pick your version of the truth through the news. Yeah, and so but truthfully, no matter what your source of news is, you can’t escape the fact that we’re always talking about the environment now, climate change, we’re talking about climate change. We’re talking about the instruments to defer climate change things like solar panel and wind power and other alternative energy sources i mean, elon musk is making ah is making billions of dollars capturing energy and batteries and using that do you see in your twenty seventeen forecast on increase in market share for the environment from larger than two percent? No, you don’t say no. You see it’s continuing to grow, it is narrowing and it’s growing faster than to grow, but not more than than its current share. Two percent not more. That’s correct. Okay. We could be wrong, though, because remember this is this forecast that we’ll talk about today. It’s just the first of eleven for forecast will do throughout the year. So we update we we update our forecast every month. And the example that i love to give is two thousand won two thousand one was bumping along to be a great e-giving your ah relatively good giving here. And then september eleventh happened. And if you were a non disaster charity what we know today having backfilled information now for fifty years is that giving dried up? If you’re a non disaster charity, pretty much for six months and then came roaring back let’s stop talking around. The forecast and let’s talk about the forecast for twenty seventeen. What do you see happening? We’re looking for growth of four point four percent nationally. Four point four versus four point one for this year. So a little bit more growth. Yes. And and what? What dollar amount? Does that come to the dollar amount over half a trillion. Right. It’s going to be over half a trillion? Yes. Okay, okay. Ah, looks like five hundred nineteen five in nineteen billion. Five hundred nineteen. Okay. Now again, we’re with the caveat. I understand this is your first forecast of eleven of eleven more to come for twenty seventeen each month. You update the annual forecasts. That is that right? We do well, so it’s a rolling twelve month forecast. So our forecast contains a forecast for next month for the next three months for the next six months for the next twelve months. And then we also update the calendar year forecast every month. Okay. What do you ah, what else do you foresee for twenty? Seventeen around around let’s. Talk about the let’s. Talk about the sources because you mentioned some of the sectors that you see sector. Growth in twenty seventeen about from sources, foundations, corporate bequest, individuals, et cetera. What do you have there for? Twenty seventeen? Well, the biggest change i see is in corporate giving and co e-giving as as many people know, is is not a large percentage of source giving in the united states, only five percent. We’re gonna talk about that when we bring the professors in, i might like to i’d like to chat a little bit about why that is to me that small maybe i’m wrong, but alright, so martignetti e-giving corporate giving this year this year just past twenty sixteen was double digit growth ten point three percent. What we’re projecting for next year for corporate giving is only one point, eight percent. All right? Uh still grow. I’m looking at that and i understand that’s growth. I’m talking about the share. The proportional share of total giving for corporations is only five percent. All right? I’ll tell you what, let’s, let’s bring in our professors because we’ve talked about the headlines let’s. Bring in doug white he’s, former professor and director of columbia university’s, master of science in fund-raising management, his most recent book is abusing donors intent, which we discussed here. I was going to tease him about that having been three years ago. And what’s happened since. But now i find out that he’s writing another book for later this year. Doug white, welcome back. Well, thank you for having me back. It’s. Good to see you again. Even with your long hair, can’t avoid it. Just call him sampson. You and karen clams. And i thought it was einstein. I prefer fabio. If you’re gonna if you’re gonna make any references. Let’s, make it fabio. Paul service she’s on he’s on the line with us from north carolina. He’s, professor emeritus at boston college, where he led the center on wealth and philanthropy. He helped to found the wealth and giving forum appear centered endeavour to deepen the philanthropic engagement of the nation’s seven thousand wealthiest families. Pull service. Welcome back. Hello. Nice to be back in a load up. Pleasure to have you all you both with us. Let’s. Uh, let’s. Give difference to the guy on the phone because he’s a slight disadvantage. Paul sharpish. What sticks out? Let’s? Start with the twenty sixteen review before we get to the twenty. Seventeen forecast which look out for you in the in the review of twenty sixteen, giving the that growth that occurred in twenty sixteen i think that the story in all of these numbers is that the amount of giving is growing twenty billion a year over the last few years and at four percent it’s going to grow faster than that. The compounding uh, this is a remarkable trendline that twenty sixteen confirms and the projections for twenty seventeen indicates the continuation of that. So you love about going the amount going charity is incredible and growing. You love this that we’re now three percent of gdp. Yes. And when we did our well transfer models, we found that if the goose’s growth and wealth and tdp the biggest growth and so after pete and so if the economy grows, we’re going to find dramatic, even greater dramatic roles in philanthropy. Doug white, let’s, let’s bring you in. But what strikes you about? Twenty sixteen? Well, what paul just said is a continuation off his studies back in the nineties and nearly two thousand with regard to what’s going to happen, and i think we’re seeing it take place. Right now twenty sixteen for me was defined by the mega gift there were so many of them and what i don’t have my fingertips is thie analysis of how the smaller gifts have grown. The number of smaller gifts have grown, but we do know that the mega gifts have have been more than they’ve ever been before. That has to be a fact er in your number’s right, rob it iss, in fact, twenty fifteen there were more mega gifts than there were in twenty sixteen, actually, so it is a factor you talk about a zuckerberg gift or another gift from the gates foundation, or or those kinds of things it’s it mega gifts are huge factor, but another factor is what we’re finding and i’d be interested in. The opinion of our two experts is what we’re finding is that millennials are a e-giving group of individuals and they’re looking for they’re not looking for cost per dollar, raised as their measurement there, looking for effectiveness and accountability on who they give, too, but they are an active force and philanthropy. The big gains that we’ve had in online giving in technology e-giving come largely from that group of people dug millennials. I totally agree with that and i think that’s one of the bigger challenges for the established charities around the united states who have become used to just the annual giving, continuing in continuing, which is fine, but i think the millennials, they’re saying they’re asking different questions, they’re not saying, am i loyal to this cause? They’re asking, even if i am loyal to this cause, how effective is my gift? And i think the question of impact we use that word, a lot of it is a topic of my new book. The question of impact is so important it should be, but now it’s important to the millennials because his roberts saying they give individually they give to causes that they can see an impact in or from paul what’s, your sense of what’s creating thiss terrific growth it’s, it’s, it’s, the dramatic growth of wealth at the very top. And what doug said is absolutely correct. Maybe gifts capture one dimension. What captures a larger slot? This is the million dollars and these air increasing and the list is getting longer, and i think, uh, that’s also helps explain the decline in religious e-giving ah, religious giving this to churches and the upper end does not give proportionately, uh, to their churches in the same ratio that the bottom ninety five percent of the population does so part of this change in religious e-giving is that so muchmore is going to education two new kinds of ventures to international to environment to social needs, and at the very top the percentage that they give to their churches is minuscule compared to how much they give the other causes. So that is part of not just the secularization which i agree with, but part of this is where the making gifts you’re going. Well, paul, how come we’re not cracking this seventy three, seventy four percent proportion that individuals account for in the total pie of giving? How come it’s it’s sticks there if we’re seeing all the us? Yeah, you? Yes, paul. We’re seeing all these mega gifts and the million dollar gifts. How come we’re not getting past the seven? The mid seventy figure? Well, one of the things is we just found out the foundation growth is is dramatic. Most of foundation growth and requests are individual gifts. And so when we’re looking at individuals, you have to understand what the is going on inside of individuals and that’s private foundations to it’s also the quest and it’s also remittances. Now, doug, i would say that report by your very astute ah research on remittances would be important. See what we’re finding out in some places that a lot of immigrants air not contributing, quote unquote to philanthropy. But the number iss between one hundred fifty and two hundred billion a year, that is sent back overseas largely to people in need buy-in immigrants recent immigrants alright, let’s, turn to let’s start to doug remittances. Well, that’s a good point that a lot of money does go back. And that’s, of course not counted in this whole process here in terms of generosity, the way we define charity, the way we defined, making the world a better place. That’s a huge part of that and it’s unfortunate. We can’t capture that. But we’re not talking about that and technical terms right now, but we really ought to, because it’s a an expression of our our society’s beneficence. And i really think that’s an important thing but there’s one other question that i just wanted to point out, or at least clarify from my own perspective, is that this really is a zero sum game. There’s only one hundred percentage points that we have to work with and so to actually ask or worry about, we’re only a seventy five percent those air living individuals, you know, on the other five percent, we have dead individuals, they’re still individuals. A question requests that’s really kind of eighty percent. I can’t. We could only go one hundred percent, but that’s on ly if nobody else gave anything, the foundations are the corporations. So i suspect it’s going to stay that way, in fact, has been their seventy five and five for the last long as i can remember. Well and paul’s point, of course, that a lot of the foundation giving is individuals directed by individuals. But it comes from the private found a it’s, just a medium. So as an expression of individual philanthropy, i think paul is correct. I would throw in the individual philanthropy into the foundation world and donor advised funds. Oh, yeah. We’re going to continue this conversation. I gotta do a little business. I have to talk about a couple of our response duitz and we’re going to get to donor advised funds after this pursuing pursuing dot com between brexit, the syrian refugee crisis and the inauguration of a new president today, the national and global climates have a lot of implications for what you can expect in your fund-raising we’re going to talk about some of those events later today. The next pursuant webinar is field guide to twenty seventeen fund-raising it’ll give you strategies that you need to keep up with. Everything is going on in the world. It’s a free web in or they always are. You register at pursuing dot com go to resource is and then webinars and i’m not too keen on that word. Webinars i don’t know it’s it’s in the lexicon now we’re stuck with it, but i don’t know i never liked it from i never like to from the beginning maybe i didn’t go public, but i’m expressing now webinars i don’t know, it’s just i think we could come up with something better than webinars. I understand where it comes from way have been seminar, but i don’t like it and i was early. I just i just wasn’t public early. We’ll be spelling spelling bees for fund-raising they have a new video up it’s from a night that raised money for hfc, which is help for children. The organisation needed help for its programs for children they turned to we’d be spelling there’s one hundred and ten thousand dollars in a spelling bee night. Check out the video it’s at wi be e spelling dot com. I’ve got video interviews for you from the twenty sixteen non-profit technology conference. Twenty twenty sixteenth. God, i need an intern, so i have someone to blame the twenty sixteen non-profit the the video is titled virtual organizations and volunteers. There are four interviews in those areas, and they are on managing remote employees, managing remote volunteers where to find volunteers and leveraging your start or tech volunteers. My video from the twenty sixteen non-profit technology conference with the links to the four interviews is that tony martignetti dot com and i, uh i suggest you check out this year’s non-profit technology conference twenty seventeen and t c this is always a very smart conference. I say it often because i believe it. Check out. Ntcdinosaur washington, d c this year, march twenty third, you get the info it and ten dot or ge, and that is tony’s take two the rest of the live listen, love, you know, it’s got to go out. I mean, there’s, no question about that. Besides the ones i already mentioned, we’ve got tampa, florida we’ve got forming ten missouri welcome farming to missouri. You haven’t been with us before. Welcome and somerville, new jersey! Welcome live listener love to you, let’s. Go abroad, of course. Seoul, south korea, always checking in so loyal south korea on your haserot comes a ham nida. We’ve got kiev in ukraine. No, i don’t know the scouts just do it live listener love to ah to kiev, tokyo also very loyal multiple. We’ve got multiple tokyo konnichi wa and the podcast pleasantries to the over twelve thousand listening in the time shift so glad that you are with us whether it’s a week later, days, months later, glad to have you with us. Pledge industries toe are over twelve thousand podcast listeners and the affiliate affections fast on the heels of the live listen love in the podcast pleasantries toe are am and fm listeners throughout the country am fm stations. Let your station know that you’re listening little feedback affections to the am fm affiliate listeners. Okay, rob mitchell, you you seem to be chomping at the bit to talk about donorsearch vise dh funds e-giving first about donor advised funds. I am a big proponent of donor advice found about and i can tell you that they’ve been the one of the biggest contributors fromthe grants that they’re making out of donor advised funds, since the depth of the recession is this tract in in your algorithms is part of the individual giving. Is that where we see dahna vice funds? What? We saved an analogue kate id on allocated. Okay, okay. Don’t advise funds are are they’re not knew they came in with the tax act of sixty eight. Yeah, they they’re not new. But this company called fidelity an investment company. I saw an opportunity and the thing that i love about donor advised funds and and paul talked about this a bit. The rise of the million dollar gift i think donorsearch vice funds have a big part of that because a za contributor myself, if my daughter’s here in the studio, listening with us if our family adopted a charitable project for which we wanted to contribute. But we did not have enough money available to us to just scratch a check, we could create a donor advice fund, a add to it, let let it be invested so that it would grow so that we could meet our our charitable mission for our family in a future year. Of course, this is a subject of controversy, because there are people who have on the other side of this, and they’ve written editorials in the chronicle, as you have, who believe that there’s too much money parked in donor advised funds is not getting out to the charities it sits. The donor gets their charitable deduction immediately, but it could sit for decades or generations, theoretically in the donor of ice fund and never get to the charities that it’s supposed to be benefiting. Well, theoretically, that could be the case. But if you read the fine print, if you set up a donor advice fund with one of the big three fidelity vanguard er schwab, or with the silicon valley foundation or ah any number. Of different true charitable organizations, community community funds are our big proponents of donor advised funds they can’t carry on perpetually, and the other thing is just a mathematical, just a mathematical equation. Donorsearch foundations are required to give five percent of their assets each year, and so what do they give a little more than five percent of their assets? You know, this is the argument against requiring donor advised phone or it five contributed percentage each year donorsearch vice funds or giving over twenty percent of their assets as grants to end use charities each year. But there are people who would say, well, let’s, make it fifty or forty or forty or fifty will see an increase. All right, we’re going, we’re gonna leave this that because i want to talk about some of the want to talk more about what you’re involved in more concretely, let’s bring doug back, doug so there’s a lot going on in the world, not the least of which is presidential inauguration today. We’ve got brexit, the a great britain leaving the european union. We’ve got syrian refugee crisis in europe. How do any or these or other things that are on your mind ah, affect our twenty seventeen philanthropy? Well, about an hour ago, the new president referenced ah, a lot of america as being in a state of some carnage, that’s his word, and whether you look at it that way or not, i do believe that philanthropy is going to have to shoulder a lot more than it has in the past, but we all know that philanthropy can’t do all of the work. And so i think one of the questions as this administration grows into its maturity, will be what kind of services will be cut back where philanthropy will have to fill in even more of the gap. So i think one of the messages and one of the reasons i think that twenty seventeenth will be a great mother where’s, my damn intern will be a great year for philanthropy anyway, is that the messages will be very concrete and very strong about the needs that society faces. That a lot of government support, as we see it right now. It may not happen this way, but a lot of government support won’t be there for. So i think the philanthropic sector will have to really step up to the plate in this in this coming here. How about you, paul? What about world affairs and twenty seventeen? I am much more optimistic. You can look up the wall of fear listeners, and that will lead you, teo. Not sleep very well at night. About your money. Uh, the the issue with, uh, philanthropy making up for government spending has been does without due respect. Um, talked about when any republican has been elected. And you have to understand that the federal budget is three point eight trillion dollars a year. Philanthropy it’s five hundred billion. And most of that doesn’t go to social services, and most of it is never going to go to social service. So it’s not going to make up very much, uh, we could hope it will, but that nothing that can touch medicaid, medicare, food stamp budgets. But that is of the non discretionary part of the federal budget is all. This is two point eight trillion. Can the discretionary part is a trillion, so i don’t i don’t have that problem in the forefront of my mind that’s making up it just can’t okay let’s, turn to doug. I just want to be clear. I i probably made on incorrect impression a moment ago. I didn’t mean to imply that ah, charity would make up for what government does or does not do and you’re right. That question has been around for ever, and the answer has been around forever charity can’t can’t step in like that. What i meant to say and i apologize for saying it badly, was that this gives thie organizations and opportunity to make their case stronger, not because they will say we will make up the difference, but because the need is there and your philanthropic support is even stronger than it’s ever been, which is, i think, a slightly different way of saying what i meant to say before, because paul, you’re so right. This is this is a question that’s been around forever, and i don’t believe it’s just for republican presidents, i think no matter what we do, ah, there will be gaps, by the way that the government does. Not feel and that’s going to be a matter of policy, but that’s always going to be the case and that those gaps will not be filled by philanthropy. But philanthropy, the organization’s themselves, if we kind of shift the mirror over there, can then say, hey, we have a big job to do support us, so i hope that bridges those two comments, okay? So you’re saying it maura’s as opportunity for round and around messaging and marketing, basically for charities, but paul’s absolutely correct. I don’t think anybody would disagree that what what charity does to help society is nothing by comparison to the amount of the government could spend to do the same kinds of things pull anything else you want to? You want to add on that? No, i think doug’s explanation is just perfect. And i appreciate see that two professors in agreement. Wow, e-giving might give them a chance. Well, i’ve always in my heart is with paul he’s. Been one of my heroes for the last two decades. All right, doug, how about you with the international affairs and impacting? I’m sorry. Yes, i’m looking at robyn. I’m saying, doug, rob international affairs twenty, seventeen and beyond. What do you see? Well, first let’s talk about twenty sixteen. The first half of twenty sixteen was dramatically different in typically do not allow anarchy on the show. When i was about twenty seventeen, expecting getting there, but but, uh, you came from texas. I’ll give you the difference. Go ahead, anarchist. There was a lot of uncertainty. I mean, we had the weirdest presidential election in my lifetime. We had distraction from the olympic games. We had an increase in in terror events worldwide and e-giving was essentially flat for the first half of the year. And then it took a spike in july, flattened out again. And then the last quarter of the year after the election. What? What are algorithms show is that giving spike xero after three months of the year? So the growth in twenty sixteen was not linear? It was not. Lin. What was what was the first six months? Like it was point nine percent growth. So just basically one percent. But we got ended up with four point four. So four point one four point one. I’m sorry for point force for next year for point one. So that extra three point one three point two came on the second half came and you’re saying there was a big spike in july first in the summer? Yes, and then again in november, right after the election? Exactly. Okay, and and the spike in november continued literally. Is that my saying that correct, but it’s a word linearly. Okay, thank you for correcting me on that. But they’re two professors with this. I’ve got to be correct. We’ll have their mikes shut off. Xero it’ll be now it’s me. That was that was a linear progression. Okay? For november, october, november and december, and right now, but that’s what? It was, but there was a spike in november right after the election. November eighth. Absolutely. It was. Okay. I get just a tribute that teo stability. You know, the raucous election is over. I i think that there was some election relief involved emotionally, i think that people were people. They weren’t sitting on the sidelines, gifts were still being made. They just weren’t growing there giving at the rate they had been growing in past years. And we’re talking mostly about individuals but corporations corporate giving grew at a good rate this last year, now for twenty seventeen, um, i think there are a lot of unanswered questions, and we’ve got the expert on the phone with us professor schervish. You know, one of the one of the things that the new president has talked about in his tax plan is an elimination of the estate tax. And paul’s paul spent a great deal of his professional career talking about generational transfer of wealth, and we’ve all talked about what what would happen if the estate tax went away with what would the impact on charitable bequest giving b and so that’s one of those unanswered questions. We don’t know what the tax plan is going to be and it’s going to be a very, very interesting year, and i have more questions than i have answers. Frankly, all right, let’s, go out for a break. When we come back, we’ll ask paul about the estate tax repeal possibility on i also want to get this corporate five percent e-giving proportion, and i got another live listen to love one specific one. Stay with us. Like what you’re hearing a non-profit radio tony’s got more on youtube, you’ll find clips from stand up comedy tv spots and exclusive interviews catch guests like seth gordon. Craig newmark, the founder of craigslist marquis of eco enterprises strong’s best from donors choose dot org’s aria finger, do something that worked. And naomi levine from new york universities heimans center on philantech tony tweets to, he finds the best content from the most knowledgeable, interesting people in and around non-profits to share on his stream. If you have valuable info, he wants to re tweet you during the show. You can join the conversation on twitter using hashtag non-profit radio twitter is an easy way to reach tony he’s at tony martignetti narasimhan t i g e n e t t i remember there’s a g before the end he hosts a podcast for the chronicle of philanthropy fund-raising fundamentals is a short monthly show devoted to getting over your fund-raising hartals just like non-profit radio, toni talks to leading thinkers, experts and cool people with great ideas. As one fan said, tony picks their brains and i don’t have to leave my office fund-raising fundamentals was recently dubbed the most helpful non-profit podcast you have ever heard. You can also join the conversation on facebook, where you can ask questions before or after the show. The guests were there, too. Get insider show alerts by email, tony tells you who’s on each week and always includes link so that you can contact guests directly. To sign up, visit the facebook page for tony martignetti dot com. I’m peter shankman, author of zombie loyalists, and you’re listening to tony martignetti non-profit radio. Big non-profit ideas for the other ninety five percent. Special live listener love is right here in the studio because that’s alexey mitchell, visiting from she’s been she’s extremely well travelled twenty four year old india, thailand, germany, switzerland what am i leaving out? It’s? Amazing. Very well travelled france student at columbia university her proud father saying france. Lexie, thanks for being with us live. Listen love to you. Okay, let’s, bring paul in. Paul, you want to you want to ah opine about the possibility of the estate tax repeal and what that would mean? Well, i have done some research on that. Yeah, i’ve heard rumors to that effect. Yes, some but about the repeal on and so has the center on philanthropy. And what we’ve done is we’ve asked people in research what would be if there is in a state tax currently, what would be your distribution of your state? And it turns out that it’s, pretty much what it would be, uh, correctly, according to what is happening to distribution two heirs to charity and to taxes. But if we say what happens if you eliminate the estate tax, what will happen? People that don’t like the elimination of the state tax the issue for them is largely that less money’s going to government. The evidence is that from these studies now these are people giving their opinion is that mohr will goto philanthropy and more well, goto airs. The loser is government by definition. Now people that think that government is philanthropy are going to object to the appeal repeal of the estate tax. But even the government has shown in one or two studies earlier on that to repeal the estate tax has not led to a decline and charitable giving, and i predict because of how wealthy people are and needing to figure out for their own sake, what to do good with that body there’s not going to be a problem with the abreu teal of latex. Okay, you’re you’re pretty well recognized as as an authority, but i love that name. All right, you got robbed, mitchell’s vote and doug is doug eyes knotting. I’m not nodding off, no nodding, nodding office don’t know. I’d say no, no, no, i just wanted to clear up. If someone’s not, i’m not. I’m not gonna touch that with it can’t happen just doesn’t happen. Non-profit radio and it’s my intuition that because although i haven’t studied it as much as paul he’s absolutely correct it’s a non answerable question, but go for it. I mean, there could be other reasons to not eliminate the estate tax. And by the way, the estate taxes pretty much eliminated for most people by far because of the extremely high yeah it’s five million dollars that’s that’s. Ten million per couple. So i mean, what are we talking about here? I know i don’t think there’s been any decrease among people who are who have a states of less than that and their request terrible giving i i’ll give you an anecdotal. A demonstration of what paul’s just said our doug’s just that that is that i unfortunately lost my mother in november. We’re now dealing with her state, which is a non taxable size to state her charitable contributions to me were all striking, actually, yeah, they and she got no tax benefit whatsoever from for creating those charitable bequests. Wait that’s widely recognized people aren’t doing it for the for the tax benefit, for the most part, mint study after study, bank of america has studies of high net worth giving, and the tax benefit is like usually the third or fourth reason that people site for leaving leaving charity in their state. I want to turn to the to the corporate this is just a little bug, a boo of mind, maybe, and you’re welcome to tell me if i’m if i’m mistaken. Corporate giving is five percent of the van you’il giving, according to the atlas of giving that seem small to me. Are you doug? Is my my off base with court corporations only contributing five percent and tell me if i am? I don’t think you’re so much off base again. We have ah xero some game here, it’s one hundred percent. So what do they represent within that? They’ve been around five percent for, you know, for a while, but i think, really your question leads me to think about what their motive in charitable giving is and their place in society. They think corporations are becoming much more aware of the role they need to play in society, but at the same time they have one primary purpose, and that is to make money for their stockholders. We don’t do that in the charitable world, but corporations do that. And so there could be a huge uproar if corporations got more charitable, all right on. And i mean to distinguish that from the newly growing be corporation segment let’s get at it this way, rob, where what proportions of the different sources of fund-raising are are growing across a bequest, individual foundation, corporate missing other sources anyway, so we’ve got this now three percent gdp. Well, you have to somebody’s giving maur what proportion? Well sources e-giving you have to consider where the proportions are. So as a cz doug and paul of both pointed out, when you add individual giving to bequest giving which is actually individuals that’s, that’s, that’s a gigantic right so that’s gigantic number ok, and so that’s, where most of the growth comes from, no matter what the growth rate iss and so if corporations, as they did this past year, they their gifts grew at ten percent, which that’s the first time i’ve seen that since we’ve started the atlas of giving and it’s way above the annual growth of four point one. Exactly so, it’s it’s more than double. Okay, except that, but but paul’s exactly right. In the case of publicly traded companies there first, their first priority is to their shareholders. And if you don’t think that a shareholder of the shareholders meeting is going to stand up and challenge a charitable gift because it could have been something that enriched their shares, you’d be wrong. Now ninety five percent of the businesses in america are not publicly traded their small businesses. I i have a couple of them i give to charity dahna through my small business, but it’s much more difficult to measure those kinds of gifts than it is the large corp large, publicly traded corporations. We just have about a minute and a half left. So i want to just touch on some some state data because you track sector source and state where’s the most generous state in the country. You know, this year what we showed was this is close to you, mike. This is going to come as a surprise. Heimans north dakota. I really love north dakota. North dakota grew seven point one percent and the states that you typically look for our texas, florida, california and new york, north dakota grew family are the most populous states, those air three most popular, of course, california number one texas tune of new york is number three, so the north dakota phenomena is also a function of their population and the and the oil play that has happened and what we’re finding from the oil play, whether it’s in texas or north dakota, is that, um, there’s a delayed effect and charitable giving and the north dakota you’re saying the population’s a factor because it’s so small it’s so small, i don’t know what the population is there but it’s it’s small what? We love north dakota. All right, gentlemen, we gotta leave it there. I want to thank you very much. Ceo rob mitchell from atlas of giving alice e-giving dot com former professor at columbia university doug white. We’ll have him back when his next book is is ready. It’s on the wounded warrior project. And paul service professor mary-jo boston college, gentlemen. Thank you so very much. Thank you, tony. Thank you. Pleasure. Next week, amy sample ward, our social media contributor returns if you missed any part of today’s show, i beseech you, find it on tony martignetti dot com. We’re sponsored by pursuant online tools for small and midsize non-profits data driven and technology enabled, and by we be spelling supercool spelling bee fundraisers, we b e spelling, dot com, our creative producers, claire meyerhoff. Sam liebowitz is the line producer. Gavin dollars are am and fm outreach director shows social media is by susan chavez, and this cool music is by scott stein. Be with me next week for non-profit radio. Big non-profit ideas for the other ninety five percent go out and be great. Kayman what’s not to love about non-profit radio tony gets the best guests check this out from seth godin this’s the first revolution since tv nineteen fifty and henry ford nineteen twenty it’s the revolution of our lifetime here’s a smart, simple idea from craigslist founder craig newmark yeah insights, orn presentation or anything? People don’t really need the fancy stuff they need something which is simple, in fact, when’s the best time to post on facebook facebook’s andrew noise nose at traffic is at an all time hyre on nine a m or eight pm so that’s, when you should be posting your most meaningful post here’s aria finger ceo of do something dot or ge young people are not going to be involved in social change if it’s boring and they don’t see the impact of what they’re doing. So you got to make it fun applicable to these young people look so otherwise a fifteen and sixteen year old they have better things to do if they have xbox, they have tv, they have their cell phones. Me dar is the founder of idealist took two or three years for foundation staff, sort of dane toe add an email address their card. It was like it was phone. This email thing is fired-up that’s why should i give it away? Charles best founded donors choose dot or ge somehow they’ve gotten in touch kind of off line as it were on dno. Two exchanges of brownies and visits and physical gift mark echo is the founder and ceo of eco enterprises. You may be wearing his hoodies and shirts. Tony, talk to him. Yeah, you know, i just i’m a big believer that’s not what you make in life. It sze, you know, tell you make people feel this is public radio host majora carter. Innovation is in the power of understanding that you don’t just do it. You put money on a situation expected to hell. You put money in a situation and invested and expect it to grow and savvy advice for success from eric sabiston. What separates those who achieve from those who do not is in direct proportion to one’s ability to ask others for help. The smartest experts and leading thinkers air on tony martignetti non-profit radio big non-profit ideas for the other ninety five percent.

Nonprofit Radio for July 22, 2016: Training Choices & 2Q16 Fundraising Metrics

Big Nonprofit Ideas for the Other 95%

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Kevin Martone, Debra Askanase & Rene Swink: Training Choices

(From L-R) Kevin Martone, Debra Askanase & Rene Swink at 16NTC

Our panel from the 2016 Nonprofit Technology Conference reveals best practices for training: goals; who participates; successful formats; and working within culture. They also have suggestions for technology and leave you with resources. They are Kevin Martone, from the Harold Grinspoon Foundation; Debra Askanase, Community Organizer 2.0; and Rene Swink with Exceptional Children’s Assistance Center (ECAC).

 

 

Rob Mitchell: 2Q16 Fundraising Metrics

How did 2nd quarter fundraising go and what’s changed in the full year forecast since January? Atlas of Giving has the data and CEO Rob Mitchell shares all. Rob is with me after each quarter for analysis.

 

 


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Hello and welcome to tony martignetti non-profit radio big non-profit ideas for the other ninety five percent on your aptly named host oh, i’m glad you’re with me. I’d come down with a case of bourelly aosis if you infected me with the notion that you missed today’s show training choices, our panel from the twenty sixteen non-profit technology conference reveals best practices for training goals who participates, successful formats and working within organization culture. They also have suggestions for technology and leave you with three sources. They are kevin martin from the harold grinspoon foundation. Deborah askanase, community organizer two point oh and renee swink with exceptional children’s assistance center and two q sixteen fund-raising results. How did second quarter fund-raising go and what’s changed in the full year forecast since january? Atlas of giving has the data and ceo rob mitchell shares at all. Rob is with me at the end of each quarter for analysis. I’m tony steak too three hundredth show next week, we’re sponsored by pursuing full service fund-raising data driven and technology enabled, you’ll raise more money pursuant dot com here is the panel, kevin martone, deborah askanase and renee swink from ntcdinosaur lier. This year welcome to tony martignetti non-profit radio coverage of sixteen ntc non-profit technology conference this is also part of ntc conversations. We’re in san jose, california, at the convention center. My guests are kevin martone, deborah askanase and renee swink. We will meet them very shortly. Right now i have tio take a moment to acknowledge and recognize the swag item for this interview which is from charity dynamics. You have a combination is very well done. Combination sunscreen and lip balm. So you either apply it with this roller on your lips or you take this off and it’s ah it’s a sunscreen applicator that’s a combined and then if those to fail you then cherry dynamics has alot in travel size it’s, hard to get i have never seen alot in travel size so i’m taking this one home with me and this joins our our our swag pile for the day oh, that’s! What? That is it’s. Impressive phone. All right. Okay. Let’s, meet let’s. Meet the panel here. Kevin martone is kevin is the technology program manager for a harold grinspoon foundation. Seated in the middle is debra askanase she’s founder and digital engagement strategist. At community organizer two point oh, and renee swink is technical assistance coordinator at kevin deborah rene. Welcome, thank you, thank you, thank you, non-profit radio pleasure. All right, your session topic was the future of capacity building is collaborative, learning communities, collaborative and cohorts. Okay, so we’re ah, we’re applying. Our learning models are learning model our best process to these different structures, these distant, collaborative structures that right. Okay, i agree with that way. Well, my thanks to rene for explain that to me before that. Before that, like, i turned down because i was a little trouble with the description, but i got it. So why don’t we talk first about what a successful training process is? And then we’ll talk about the different. Form of formats that we can fit into. So makes sense. All right. Makes pretty professional trainers. Is that right? Are you asleep? Part of our in-kind department. Full time job. Okay, your bona fide hyre. Okay. Well, let’s, start with deborah askanase because i’ve known you the longest. Thanks. So what do you think the essential elements are of training? And how do you how do you do it? Best at community organizer two point zero. So there’s a couple of elements that are really important to think about the first thing when you’re designing a training is thinking about the goals. You always start with the goals. What is it that is going to increase capacity and help people to get there to increase their capacity? Because that’s, the whole point of training, and renee khun speak very eloquently about that pay goals goal. Then you think about who needs to be at the table so many times training so designed in the right people aren’t at the table and it’s really important based on your goals. What? What segment of your audience should be there? What segment of your participants does management need to be at the table. Do board members need to be at the table? It’s not a the third thing that you want to think about our learning elements. So how do people learn? And what elements do you want to bring into that so that they can best? What do that mean? Learning elements? Little jargon. E? You know, he’s, john, you know i have jargon. I want them ahead of time. I said, yeah, he’s real big on joining. Well, yeah. You warn you warn them and you’re the one who’s in it. Okay, you know what? The learning elements? What does that mean? So that’s thinking about? Well, when you take any kind of training or you goto workshop procession, you leave and you think, oh, i really learned because these pieces were part of it. So it’s often it’s, participatory, it’s, collaborative there’s, some sort of exercise where you integrated in there’s pierre, learning that takes place and there’s actually a few. If you take our slides, which are in the collaborative notes, you’ll see we kind of list out you could choose what we’re gonna work best for your session that will meet your goals. And then finally, after you thinking aboutthe learning elements then you think about okay who’s, the student and who’s the teacher here. Is it something where it’s going to be best done by pierre learning where there’s no official trainer, facilitator. But we all learn from each other’s expertise or there’s somebody who facilitates with some co learning from the students? This is the format now we’re talking about right? So you think about who’s the student who’s the teacher, a piece of it, and then finally think about and this is really important, something we came to when we were designing this the cultural elements so many times we designed trainings and we don’t think about what’s the culture of the organization, who it’s being the training is being created for and what’s the culture of the people who are attending the training, and all of us have stories about what happens when you don’t understand the culture or how you bring the culture in that’s so important and we actually have culture cards will come will come to those i i’m happy to pass it on the other side. Okay, now. So we just have about twenty five point six minutes together. So and you had at ninety minutes and plus, on top of all the top of the model, uh, we have to talk about our different formats. Communities, collaborative sze and cohorts, right? Of course. I appreciate that because i like a liberation jargon jail. Uh, i send live listener love on every show i do podcast pleasantries for our podcast ten thousand podcast listeners i do affiliate affections for the am and fm stations that are part of the show. I’ve told you. Take to sew a pattern kevin’s going to kill me if i don’t mention there’s also technical stuff to think about like how did you use technology to do the training? Alright way. But that’s like last let’s say we could get teo let’s. Let’s take on each of these elements. But we have to do it a little quicker than you did it in the ninety minute session. All right, so you deferred to rene for goals. So, rene, what about think about goals in training? Well, yeah. I mean, you always want to think about what is it? What is it you want to accomplish? But you also need to look at where our people are with their present levels, what is it? They don’t know? Because if you go in thinking, oh, i think everybody needs to learn this, and if you’re not really aware of what’s going on in your audience, they may go way already know that so we just wasted your time. So really looking at that what you’re running and we really want to increase people’s knowledge, their skills and ultimately they go out and end up doing it, and so they become active learners and active doers. So how do we be good at assessing with the goals ought to be so we’re not we’re not over the heads of the audience, nor are we telling them things that they’ve already learned they already know well, you know, when ideally it’s great. If you are able teo non-profit radio, we deal with the rto so we’ll deal with the ideal and unlimited budgets, right? Exactly. So really it’s great is if you khun survey people ahead of time, do a needs assessment. Really? Hopefully you have a relationship with your audience and you can do that. But even when all of that happens a lot of times, you just have to be really flexible and be able to pivot and kind of go and asking those questions, okay, who’s in the room, and if you have surprised people, you can go oops, we’re going to adjust, we pivoted during ourselves, way did. Okay, okay, you’re tuned to non-profit radio. Tony martignetti also hosts a podcast for the chronicle of philanthropy fund-raising fundamentals is a quick ten minute burst of fund-raising insights published once a month. Tony’s guests are expert in crowdfunding, mobile giving event fund-raising direct mail and donor cultivation. Really all the fund-raising issues that make you wonder, am i doing this right? Is there a better way there is? Find the fund-raising fundamentals archive it. Tony martignetti dot com that’s marketmesuite n e t t i remember there’s a g before the end, thousands of listeners have subscribed on itunes. You can also learn maura, the chronicle website philanthropy dot com fund-raising fundamentals the better way. Duitz who should be in it? Let’s get kevin in the conversation? Sure, who should be participating in this training so so never hinted at it, but there’s, i guess i should say it differently. I’m sorry i’m making it sound like it’s, same for everything. How do you determine who should participate in the training that you are planning, right? And there’s often two parts there’s the people who are actually you’re learning like we’re going to be it you around or whatever the training is, we’re going to be throughout and then never hinted at the the executives, the people decision makers at whatever organization that people are from making sure they have buy-in so, for example, i run this year round communications training and it’s for young communications staff to help them with their overall communication skills around planning i’m that kind of thing, but at the first session that we do, we require that their executive director or a decision maker at that organization come with them so that they can work together to come up with their overall goals, that communication goals at the organization, their overall goals so that it drives what the student is. Doing the entire year and we feel it’s important because if they’re not willing to come to that first session and be part of that it’s it’s not likely that they’re going to buy into change that happens through the course, okay? And can we talk a little more generally about how to determine who should be a participant? Well, i mean, in the training that i’ve run, it’s it’s usually relatives usually clear from the golden goals. So for us, for that communications training it’s to help each of these organizations have better communicate outreach to their stakeholders, and so we’re pinpointing the communications person director, right? Right, exactly. Okay. All right. So it should be apparent from the goals with goals should drive who belongs? Yeah, yeah, yeah. Okay. All right, deborah arms. We’re back to you for learning elements. All right? Well, you really only you pretty much have been described with the learning elements are going to me. It’s and i was a non professional trainer, so i’m the neal fight. I’m the non bona fide on the those on the path, but i’m not on the panel, so i’m not qualified to me. It’s just like how we’re gonna do this what’s going to be? How are we going? What’s our methodology going b but you said he’s going to be pure learning practice, role play. My voice just cracked like i’m fourteen, i’m just puberty neo-sage still awkward, but i missed that part of some well, okay, so we talked about learning elements that people learn by integrating it. And so it’s, really a question of for your training and for your audience. What ways are creative and perhaps applicability for people to really put into practice what they’re learning and and that was a collaborative learning. Okay, okay. Let’s give you another shot, then. So format. What? What? So there’s a different okay, what were we going to say about form out? How are we diving into this little deeper? And i called it format. It came after learning elements. Then you were thinking about the way we’re thinking about this here. This’s your culture card. You know we’ve got we’ve got the format cods for matter-ness wait. Let’s not be unkind. Not probably right? I’m going to remain where you gonna be? All right. One says one primary trainer. When that no. Official facilitator and one says facilitator plus koegler learning and these areas shaded in blue and here they are for our video audience. Okay, so i’ll let you speak through them. Sure. As part of the session, we handed these out and had groups practice. Know why i had to feel like i don’t know what you did a great job by awkwardness. I told you, i never really imagined i could graduate from here. You have a law degree, but i never graduated puberty. All right, um, so during the training we handed these out had people kind of we’re like, okay? And your session there’s only one primary trainer. And if if that’s the right thing to meet the goals and that’s what’s known as a traditional training right. But when we get into the jargon jail of the collaborative and the cohorts in the communities something where there’s no official trainer and people are learning from each other that’s called a learning community that sound like anarchy. It isthe i’ve actually participated in one and helped design one. And i think they’re fabulous not. And it can be as long as it if it’s not intentional it needs to be intentional goal right now. Is that really okay? All right, that’s a possibility. And then there’s elearning collaborative, which is more along the lines of what you do, kevin, and what what you do, rene as well and that’s where there’s a facilitator who sort of guides the overall vision but there’s a lot of peer learning that happens where people are working in groups of twos and skillsets that’s a skill that’s a really maybe an art, actually, to be a successful facilitator, i’ve been in some programs with mediocre facilitators and like, they don’t set the rules. Well, you know, they’re like too dictatorial about the rules. Don’t people participating with the ground rules are theyjust dictate them and it goes downhill from there? Yeah, like nobody feels by boat and they feel like dictated to choose card number one one primary trainer. Exactly what? You’re supposed to be the facilitator. Exactly. Okay, but i haven’t only been in crummy ones, but i’m thinking of becoming well. We did talk about crummy one or we started with what’s. The worst training you have ever been in. Yeah, i think it’s hard to be a good facilitator, i think it’s a lot of practice. Yeah. Is that okay? Yeah. All right. So that’s, the way we say that we covered format pretty well down with that. I think we’re all right. The cultural element you want to just going down the line. Get now that’s where the culture courts because it was fun this week. A lot of fun because actually in the training, folks were given a scenario of something. So we gave them a scenario of a training they had to develop, so they didn’t have to think about that. And then when we dealt the cards out, then that made them really start to apply what we hoped. Where the elements of a good training so the culture cards we passed out, they’re in purple for those folks that aren’t on video and see this. But basically, what if one of your training participant’s death what do you d’oh that’s oneaccord says a training personally handed that car? Yes, exactly. Managing management and staff they supervise are in the same training, management and the staff they supervisor in the same training. Yes, kevin said, but the first right? Right, you’re you’re that’s mandatory. For you, the first for the first time, a man, kevin, you get you also deal with that in a very interesting way with the where? Management’s not in the super secret group that only the trainees. Aaron. Right, that’s. True. Right, then we’ll spend the whole day together. Well, they spend that first day, but then the rest of the year oh, yeah, the participants are allowed to have a safe space where they can bring up issues that kind of thing and not have it first session has to be with management, right? And the whole rest of the year is with the right, the communications director. Right? Right. We’ll bring up a lot more a lot other different issues. If they’re they’re together the whole time, certainly very hard can’t come up. Right? Like i’m understaffed and under resourced. My ceo doesn’t hear me. You’re going to many administrative things that take me away from my communications task, right? I interviewed. Well, we had a communications panel yesterday. Yeah, like miller was great. Then there were two others also, and i got an earful about potential problems. Exact locations, directors face it could be you have spanish. And english speakers and you have the priority is to use only one language. Okay. That’s a tough one? Yes, it is. Or the culture of the organization failure is frowned upon. They don’t allow innovation. Well, they don’t encourage and the innovation and risk exactly was frowned upon, right? And then if then you no staffer required well, that really to attend the court set staff says staff are required. Brandraise yeah, and mix of skills and levels and experience. So all of these things, these culture cards really can cause a really can either be amazing and opportunities for growth and collaboration. Or they can be cluster. You know what the’s a cards are? Index cards size. I’d say they’re all color coded the culture cards or purple and the format cards were blue and we have some green ones over there. What with all that? Absolutely do those and these were basically show show show kapin buy-in that basically location because sometimes organizations khun do them in person or sometimes people have remote staff and so we really mixed it up is, you know, either entirely remote or in person or a combination entirely in person remote. And in person or entirely remote. Okay, location. That’s going to impact? Uh, okay, kevin, make this explicit. How does location make a difference? Why? Why is that important? Well, especially for all right, it’s a plan that was especially for these trainings where we’re trying to make a collaborative where we’re trying to build not only content, you know, knowledge in the participants, but also appear network if it’s all virtual, you really have to work hard to make those connections. So you know whether it’s, you know, in person, you can have them go up for coffee and they can connect much easier, right? Right, exactly. And so, you know, you might use, and this is where sometimes technology can come in, like using google plus hangouts where its visual or some other kind of video conferencing so people can talk to each other, breaking the group up into smaller groups and having discussions. So they’re talking about each other’s issues in their homework, and you know what they’re working on. And then there’s also just techniques you can do so. One of my colleagues, laurie herrick, does a great job of doing this and her fund-raising training. Where she asked questions in her webinars, which well, you know, we all know what weapons could be painful and very dry, but she’ll ask a question and just stop and there’s a lot of awkward silence, especially at the beginning of these trainings. And i know for me, my instinct is to jump in and, like, give the answer right toe as a training. Like, i i kind of know what i want, but she really steps back and lets them talk. And so that’s the kind of thing unless them across talk so that they’re working with each other, building that pier collaboration and connecting with each other. So there’s a lot of different techniques you can do that you might need if its remote versus being in person. Okay. Thank you. All right. I feel like we could move now to our voice cracked again thursday. Moved now, tio. All right, so these different formats that we’re going to apply this to the learning communities, the collaborative tze and the cohorts. Yes. We want to have a collaborative training for our capacity building cohort. Theo, i’m striking. Jorgen jorgen session collaborative class. Okay, collaborative capacity bilich okay. So what is a who wants to take this? Who? What is a learning community? I’ll take that one off. Okay? So elearning community is that one that you called possible anarchy where there is no official facilitator in the community itself decides what they wanna learn in this eye. How do we know walking into that thing? That this is going to be valuable to me? That is what i’m paid to be here. I don’t even know what i’m walking into. Well, these air more than anything done from the community, not as a paid trainer. There’s no paid trainer. The community teaches itself. So think of something like where you a community of practice like ten group gets together. Exactly. But it’s a little more intentional around. We’re trying tto learn from each other and designing the learning experience together. All right, this is not a paid training that i’m attending at a hotel for a weekend or something. Most likely. Okay, thank you. Rights here. And i’m the neophyte eyes these basic questions. So this is where the community intentionally decides what it wants to learn. An example would be one that i have participated in. And helped design for the faculty at marlborough college grad school, where we realized we all had a lot to learn from each other and we’re so busy teaching we didn’t have time to understand the value of what everyone could contribute. Where is marlborough college? It is located. The roger program is in brattleboro from and it’s ah graduate program for non-profit management and i teach social media for social change. Someone else teaches environmental justice someone else teaches, you know, all kinds of things finance, whatever, and we decided to come together as a learning community, and for a hour and a half once a month, someone would share three questions that were fundamental to think about what they teach in the community. It wasn’t just that say i would share a critical question about social media wasn’t that i’m giving my knowledge is that we’re having a conversation where were all learning together about this piece, and then we decided talks about talk about goals, we decide it was a cultural value that no one should have more information than the other, so any supplemental readings were handed out afterward so that we all learn together at the same time. And then there was afterwards supplemental reading to continue the conversation. So that’s an example. Okay. Okay. That’s. Ah, learning community right now. That’s an ongoing you doing in that format that’s. The form that we used last year. Now another learning community starting up this year. Okay. All right. Who wants to take on collaborative sze what’s a collaborative grayce that’s a really good question. I think they weave ultimately, we decided collaborative cohort waiting in the session to go really well with the reason we did that is because he s deborah’s looking at me as we were having these conversations and we were like, going okay, well, what is the definition of a collaborative? And what is the definition? And really they end up bleeding over to each other. They have lots of the same characteristics. So bottom line is it really doesn’t matter what you call yourself. As long as you are incorporating all of these learning elements and you are meeting the needs of either yourself like a learning community or the end person, the participant and you are increasing their capacity. Then we’ve done exactly what we have set out to. Dio give me a collaborative ako or whatever they call it. All right. So in other words, this session topic is fragile. That’s what i’m saying for a little bit weird that you were good with that thing misleading at best. Absolutely likely fraudulent. What? We needed to get you in the door somehow. Right? Right. Generation. You just want to win the election either because there were six hundred seminar top six hundred workshop possibilities. And you wanted to make the you got exactly what you got. You got to do what you gotta do. I will say that in all fairness, one of the beautiful things is that kevin and i proposed the topic and there was another person who was going to do with us who wasn’t able to make it. And then we brought in rene. We brought in andrea. And as we’re all understanding each other’s expertise and how we approach training the way that we decided teo, execute on it, change slightly and that’s why it’s a little odd that’s all that’s, all very collaborative because we have pamphlets. Collaborative way. Did you like it? If it’s not a georgia or in the liberation? Perfect pivot. Oh, good. Neo-sage he’s. Quick friday. Alright. Okay. How about ah, about a cohort? Is there something legitimate and coordinate is actually doing? If you want to talk about how you do cohorts well, i was going to say, well, yeah, i do a cool a half. Yeah, i talk for a living. Not like you, tony, but we do a co wart two of our spanish speaking staff that are tend to be very isolated in our centers are non-profits and so we really wanted to build a cohort that they knew that they could rely on themselves and in build that community while also being a cohort, but also respecting the fact that everything needed to be in spanish for them as well. So it ended up being a combination of a cohort and a learning community at the same time. And it turned out really nicely that’s why we say it meets the goals that we hear. Exactly. Okay, we need a couple more minutes because we could talk for everybody training haven’t talks about technology beautiful and how it supports our way. We have a couple minutes i’d like to make so i mean the first thing the stresses and we talked about this in the session, it was the last thing we talked about all the other stuff we’ve already talked about it much more important. Technology is just a tool to help you reach those goals to help your participants get what they’re supposed to get out of the course. But, you know, we talked about some of the technology’s already, so you know, whether it’s, google plus hangouts to whether, if it’s it’s remote, the private facebook group, i think, never mentioned which was is a place that we use for the participants to share their homework, to have other conversations privately away from their management. You know, what were some other technologies we talked way we even use some that some people like we use big tent, which is just a free, big, tanked and yes, and it’s, just a free online where you can have forum and post documents? Eso which like some people, that we just looked upon it, but it works for our community. I know another cohort that uses they actually bookmark and ever note, and they have a collaborative notebook where they they fill in. With ideas they have in between. The actual learning session site is called ever note. Ever note? Yes, black back-up because it has been mentioned in some other interview. Slack is known for it was mentioned. I thought for project management. You can use it for your basically twisted. However you like. Okay? Yeah. Okay. And then they listed webinar technology. So everything from adobe to webex too joined on me. Joined up mi young’s, jing’s aaron, i love personally j r g i n g i just isa use that for screen jobs. Wellbeing, street raptures. But if you are trying to teach something really specific, it’s a great way to post it and for people to use it. So it is a way we use it a lot in our community. Yeah, exactly. Just joking. It’s j i m j i just yeah, yeah. Okay. Yes. I’m slow in the morning before. All right, all right, all right. So this is very interesting. So actually have something in twenty five, twenty six minutes that you know, these these formats, aside from being fraudulent in the title, they really they are. We never sharing. Really? They really are not. Really or not the key? I mean, they they blend together, there could be a milan jj of many and it doesn’t really matter what they’re called. As long as the training is meeting the needs and the goals of the of the i’m not even sure called trainees, but thrice already catching on e i never trainees was not right and help us eliminate jargon. I mean it’s always a word fraudulent. We’re like we’re done with this. Thank you. Alright, the they are kevin martin and he is the technology program manager at the harold grinspoon foundation and in the middle. Deborah askanase, founder and digital engagement strategist. Community organizer two point oh, and renee swink, technical assistance coordinator at the c a c thank you so much. Thank you. Fun. Yes, stony martignetti non-profit radio coverage of sixteen ntc. Thank you for being with us. Two q sixteen fund-raising results with rob mitchell coming up first. Pursuant, they’ve got mohr free research for you. Just released yesterday. A new report optimized your donor pipeline. You need to raise more money. That means you need a strong pipeline of potential donors or prospects. Whichever you prefer to call. Them coming in coming in your door. This report is to help you build and retain and optimize that pipeline coming in it’s free like all their researches it’s again optimized your donor pipeline. You’ll find it at pursuing dot com and click resource is and i’m just amazed at how much they offer for free lots of webinars that are in fact, one of their weapon. Our guests is eyes going to be a guest on non-profit radio coming up talking about disney? What? What he learned from disney and applies in non-profit fund-raising but any case, the free stuff, the free knowledge that pursuing shares is generous, remarkable. Take advantage of it. Get thea, optimize your donor pipeline report now for tony’s take two, three hundred show next week it is the sixth anniversary of non-profit radio. This is the two hundred ninety ninth show and next week three hundred scott stein. You know him because i credit him at the end of every show. He’s going to live in the studio with his eighty eight he’s going to play the song claire meyer, half our creative producer is going to be in the studio from north carolina. We’ve got giveaways, non-profit radio fact or fiction game show lots going on. We’re going periscope it so you could join us on joining the periscope through twitter um, three hundred show next week. There’s a video on it at tony martignetti dot com says a little more, but the takeaway is next week three hundred show be here, that is tony’s take two. I hope that was emphatic enough. I’m concerned it may not have been rob mitchell is with us. You know him? He’s, the ceo of atlas of giving, which is the only monthly forecast and measurement of charitable giving by sector source and state in the u s they’re an atlas of giving dot com. Rob is at ah, philanthropy man or as i like to say at philantech roman rob mitchell, our resident roman welcome back. Hey, tony it’s. Good to be back. Pleasure to have you were talking about the second quarter of sixteen what’s the what’s, the headline for the mid year. Well, the midyear headline. I wish i had better news for you, tony, but e-giving has been essentially flat for the first half of two thousand sixteen. We’ve had a gain. Of less than one percent for total giving, which amounts to two hundred forty one point to a billion dollars. Okay, and what’s the percentage it’s actually point nine percent. So just okay, so just slightly under one percent gain. Okay? Um yes, all right. And yeah, that there there are some. There are some reasons for this. There also are some speculative reasons for this. But i will tell you that on dh this is not a good sign. June giving decreased i’m slightly from may for a total of forty points seven. Two billion. Now that was just it was virtually flat. But dahna we haven’t observed that for several years. In fact, we haven’t observed that kind of flatness since two thousand. Alright, since two thousand ten you’re saying there hasn’t been a six month period of this degree of flatness. Is that right? That’s? Correct. Okay, so it’s been six years are two thousand ten sort of emerging starting to emerge from the recession. All right, well, we had a we had a great emergence from the recession. Metoo apart from what other estimators have said are you know the atlas of giving consist of sixty. Five separate algorithms where we we have identified what factors are involved in giving and their relatives strings by sector source and st s o um, yeah, this is this is, uh this is a a bit of a different year. We’ve been on the rise since, um, since really two thousand nine and, um, this year’s very different donors are very uncertain right now. They’re uncertain about the economy, they’re uncertain about the stock market, and as all of us know, the stock market has had significant volatility this year, there is the continuing fear of rising interest rates. Um then there’s the election and the outcome of the election is huge because people are there sitting on the donor’s air sitting on the sidelines there they’re not. They’re not drawing back, but they’re also not increasing because they’re wondering about how the outcome of the election is going to affect them on taxes, on their income, on social security, on student loans and other things. Okay, rob, can you speak to where where things stood back four years ago? Ah, this period in two thousand twelve, right before an election. I don’t have that information and, you know okay, okay. I’m just wondering what what generally election is, whether this is an unusual election cycle for for fund-raising it i believe that it is an unusual election cycle. I mean, we’ve got two candidates who had who have the highest disapproval rate that we’ve ever had in history. Well, i know it’s an unusual election, it’s certainly that i’m wondering if if the impact on fund-raising is different than it has been in the past. That’s all right, we can. We’re going to you’re going to come back. What? After where? We know ah september, right? So we can we can still we could talk more about that in after the third quarter. Sure. Okay. Okay. We could compare maybe just two thousand twelve and maybe even two thousand eight. Okay, no problem. Let’s, talk a little about semente. Vigia yl. Well, actually, now, before we move on to different how different types of charities are faring so far, let’s talk a little more about some of this uncertainty. Another thing i’m thinking is, what about oil prices? Oil prices being so low. That’s gonna have an impact in our energy producing states. It does. And in our energy producing states and i live in one of those, which is texas, and i actually have a business which has been negatively affected by the downturn in oil prices and so that’s the bad news. So states like texas, north dakota, wyoming, pennsylvania um, those states that were flourishing before the oil, the oriole price shut down are having a difficult time. Yeah, we’re moving away. They’re finding other jobs and so forth. But there’s there’s a good side to this. The good side to this is that gasoline prices no are lower as a result, and therefore there is more disposable income for most of the country and that that is reflected not only in gasoline prices but in i couldn’t believe this. But i just just a couple of weeks ago, i was able to fly my daughter from chicago to san antonio for forty five dollars. Yeah, and that is a direct reflection of oil of the low price of oil, right? So it’s a ying and yang sort of thing. Yes, the states that our oil dependent are having a difficult time. But i would say for the overall charitable giving economy what’s happened in oil prices is a very positive thing. Okay, okay. By the way, i would argue that new york state and especially the capital, albany, is a major producer of gas. But that’s that’s a political statement i turned out to be trying to be political on the welsh. I don’t know, maybe it’s true in a lot of steak kapin had in the in the this week in the in the convention and next in next week’s convention. I don’t know that there can be more gas. There was a lot of gas coming out of those that’s. True too. Um all right, that’s, the extent of our political commentary are interesting. All right, so you think the low oil prices are generally generally a positive, generally a positive, because discretionary income is the key to charitable giving to the terrible giving economy means seventy four percent. Seventy four percent of all guests are made by individuals, right? So when individuals have more money available to them, they will give more, okay and when, when things like interest rates, inflation, oil prices or get in this case, gasoline prices or or a few loyal prices for heating in the winter. Put pressure on them. They have less money to give, and seventy four percent of the economy is given by individual giving. Yeah, and that’s that’s reflected in some of the other numbers that you you report for the for the midyear that grants from donor advised funds are up significantly. Foundation grants are up significantly. But we’re still only see a nine tenths of a percent increase, because three quarters of the giving comes from people. Exactly. In fact, if you look at as i look at the sectors, a zai look, a e-giving by sectors. You know, one of the sector that is the most affected by individual giving it’s church e-giving and it is down one point, one percent that’s pretty for me. That’s pretty typical when we you and i have been talking about this every time you’re on and we’re covering this church giving has been declining about one percent each year. For what, three, four years? Something like that. It has been because and it’s a it’s a combination of factors. But it has a lot to do with there’s less there’s, less participation on the part of americans and church attendance in church. Joining or membership and and then churches also are like large charities. They take it on the chin when unemployment is high. Now i understand unemployment is not officially is not high right now, but we’ve had a tremendous number of people drop out of even looking for a job and that’s that’s making an impact to and but you compare that with okay, so that’s the largest sector that that that sector accounts for a third of the charitable giving economy. Yes, and it is declining, and we expect that it will continue to decline, but then you look at the sector that is performing the best, which is the environmental sector, and there are almost four percent. The problem is it’s great, that they’re at four percent, but they’re the smallest sector. Yeah, they’re a tiny piece of the pie. What what’s what’s there, what’s there, taking the in the in the overall, giving the percentage wise. What is the environment account for the environment accounts for two percent? Okay, rod, we gotta go out for a break. When we come back, you and i’ll keep talking, and i know everybody’s going to stay with us. Plus, we got live. Listen, love coming up. Don’t want to miss the loveless term of stay with us. 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Hi, this is claire meyerhoff from the plan giving agency. If you have big dreams but a small budget, you have a home at tony martignetti non-profit radio. Welcome back to big non-profit ideas for the other ninety five percent. We got to do the live love, you know, the live love has got to go out to st louis missouri college station, texas while we’re talking about texas um, maybe that’s rob. Rob, is that you listening earlier? You in college station? I am not in kottler enough. Okay, then that someone else and there’s live love going out to that person. Also fort worth, texas live love going out there. And then, uh, let’s go abroad. We got verburg, netherlands. Welcome, netherlands live listener love to you. I don’t think you’ve been with us before. If you have it’s not too common. Come back. We’ve got many mean colombia. We’ve got seoul, south korea. Where? Of course i want to say come za ham, nida and tokyo, japan konnichiwa, beijing china knee how always so reliable. Unbelievable! The asian connection between seoul, beijing and tokyo. Such reliable listeners live love to you what comes after the live love it’s got to be the podcast pleasantries, you know i mean that’s. A rhetorical question pleasantries out to the many, many thousands of people listening on whatever device whatever time, whatever activity you are doing at this moment. Are you on a treadmill? Are you in a car? Are you painting the side of your house? So you’re washing your dishes pleasantries to you, our podcast audience, and after that comes the affiliate affections. You can’t have live list of loving podcast presences with out affiliate affections it’s just not done. I couldn’t i couldn’t conceive of it. Our am and fm listeners throughout the country. Stations ranging from oh upstate new york to washington state, down tto oregon and california and philadelphia area well, that’s actually not filled out buy-in castor county area. Those are the ones that come to mind all affections to all and more. There are other stations out there all our affiliate station listeners. Rob mitchell. Thank you for that indulgence while i greet and thank are many of the songs i have one question for you. Tony. Yes? Are you the guy playing the piano for the intro music? No. That’s. That’s, scott steinar music is by scott stein. That is fantastic. That well, if you listen live well, if you listen to next week’s show live or archive or affiliate you’ll hear scott performed the entire song, which is cheap red wine he’s going he’s going to be in the studio with his eighty eight and he’s going to play a song for us so well, i think he should change in the name tio two buck chuck, what the hell is that? Well, if you don’t know about trader joe’s too, but check is the is the trader joe’s economy wine. So when you’re talking about keeper at wine talking about two bucks two buck chuck. Okay, theo, this song, i think, was composed before trader joe’s was was popular. I don’t know before they were before they were even existed, but ah, it’s it’s several years old, but the tune caught my ear and we’re not changing to two buck chuck hyre that’s good to know that you’re a nino file. You like your wine? Yeah, well, actually, i i actually am a, um i have an interest in a central coast winery, so yes, in a way, i am andina file central coast of california. Yeah, yes. You want to shout out the winery? Um, the name of the wine group is called the inter p wine group. And our award winning lines are called double bond. Double bond. Ok, i’ll check it out from the central coast. All right. And very interested. See what you learned on non-profit radio it’s remarkable. The ceo of us of giving has an interest in a double bond wines and and the entropy wine group. You’re not going. You’re not going to capture that. And other media outlets. You just not. All right. That’s, enough navel gazing and backslapping. So let’s talk about, um, britain’s exit from the european union and the european common market. You are very concerned about that. Yes, i am. Okay, let’s, move on. How about a little fulfilling some detail? Okay, well, the first thing i’ll tell you is that if you go on atlas of e-giving dot com today and pull up the current monthly report, which is through june it’s the mid year report, it will show that we are projecting that e-giving well, the giving your will finish two point one percent higher than two thousand fifteen. Now. That’s. Good news. Any increase in giving as good news? Yeah. Blood. It is slightly lower than our original forecast back in january of two. Point. Six percent. But here’s. My concern. The exit of the brits from the from the u is goingto have some negative effects, which are not going to be immediately apparent. But could but will, up here over the next six months and here’s some of the things to look for. What? The effect of of the brits leaving the eu means that the the u s dollar is, is that a high and that’s great if you’re traveling across the world? Okay, wait, wait, i can’t let you get away. Hold on, i can’t worldwide trade that’s a very bad okay, hold on, hold on. What about rob? Rob mitchell trompeter financial markets slow the economy and i would say that the financial markets that we’re in now could be characterized as volatile. I mean, one day we’re, uh i’m watching my portfolio when they were up when they were down. You just you just never know rob. And one of the most concerning things to me is that fed chair janet yellen isn’t sure said publicly that she isn’t sure if the exit of britain from the you will trigger a global recession. Now that’s not something that’s a very, very strong statement from the chairman of the fed and so that’s that’s troubling. Okay, rob us unemployment. Robert you listening to me? Rob? Rob, stop for a minute. Okay, okay. Take a breath, please. I’ve been trying to get a question and i’m trying to get a question into you, we’re going. We’re going back now, going back a minute. You have tio, all right, we have just about two minutes left, make it s so. I understand you’re very concerned about brexit, make it explicit for me. What is the connection between britain leaving the european union and the common market and a strong dollar? And a strong dollar. Yeah, strong dollar. How does that happen? Worldwide? And that effects the american economy? It also effects u s unemployment. But what’s the connection between britain leaving and those things you just said. They’re britain and germany were propping up the european union and it’s not clear at this point whether the european union will survive, because if if the germans tone and tony you and i wr roughly the same age, if the germans and the if the germans decide that they’re tired of supporting the socialist activities of italy, france, greece and spain, the hole you could fall apart. Okay, so that all right, so that makes the american dollar more appealing. Okay. Okay. That’s, the kind of art that’s we gotta make it explicit. Everybody listening is not an economist, including me. Even though i have a bachelor’s in science from an economic from carnegie mellon university. Um okay. We have just about thirty seconds left. Leave us with it’s a friday. Leave us with something a little positive. Please. The good news is that in spite of all the bad news, charitable giving is expected to increase this year by two point, one percent. Right so far. My two point one. Okay, alright, rob, we gotta leave it right there. Rob mitchell, ceo of atlas of giving. You’ll find them an atlas of giving dot com and that’s where? The media report is and he is at philantech roman. Thank you, rob mitchell. Thanks, tony. Always great to be with you. If you missed any part of today’s show, i beseech you, find it on tony martignetti dot com what about next week? It’s a three hundred show that’s. Another rhetorical question. That’s two in one hour. What do you know? You know what next week is it’s a three hundred joe, for goodness sake, responsive by pursuing online tools for small and midsize non-profits data driven and technology enabled pursuing dot com our creative producers claire meyerhoff she’ll be in the studio next week. Sam liebowitz is a line producer, he’s in the studio every week gavin dollars are am and fm and outreach director. He’s never been in the studio shows social media’s by susan chavez. Nor has she, but she doesn’t actually work from california. Our music is by scott stein. He’ll be in the studio next week. Be with me next week for non-profit radio big non-profit ideas for the other ninety five percent go out and be great xero what’s not to love about non-profit radio tony gets the best guests check this out from seth godin this’s the first revolution since tv nineteen fifty and henry ford nineteen twenty it’s the revolution of our lifetime here’s a smart, simple idea from craigslist founder craig newmark yeah insights, orn presentation or anything? People don’t really need the fancy stuff they need something which is simple and fast. When’s the best time to post on facebook facebook’s andrew noise nose at traffic is at an all time hyre on nine a m or eight pm so that’s, when you should be posting your most meaningful post here’s aria finger ceo of do something dot or ge young people are not going to be involved in social change if it’s boring and they don’t see the impact of what they’re doing so you gotta make it fun and applicable to these young people look so otherwise a fifteen and sixteen year old they have better things to do if they have xbox, they have tv, they have their cell phones me dar is the founder of idealised took two or three years for foundation staff, sort of dane toe add an email address their card. It was like it was phone. This email thing is right and that’s why should i give it away? Charles best founded donors choose dot or ge somehow they’ve gotten in touch kind of off line as it were on dno. Two exchanges of brownies and visits and physical gift mark echo is the founder and ceo of eco enterprises. You may be wearing his hoodies and shirts. Tony, talk to him. Yeah, you know, i just i’m a big believer that’s not what you make in life. It sze, you know, tell you make people feel this is public radio host majora carter. Innovation is in the power of understanding that you don’t just do it. You put money on a situation expected to hell. You put money in a situation and invested and expect it to grow and savvy advice for success from eric sabiston. What separates those who achieve from those who do not is in direct proportion to one’s ability to ask others for help. The smartest experts and leading thinkers air on tony martignetti non-profit radio big non-profit ideas for the other ninety five percent.

Nonprofit Radio for April 1, 2016: Digital Metrics & 1Q16 Fundraising Metrics

Big Nonprofit Ideas for the Other 95%

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Meico Whitlock & Rebecca Reyes: Digital Metrics

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Meico Whitlock & Rebecca Reyes at 16NTC

There’s so much you can measure, where do you start? Meico Whitlock and Rebecca Reyes answer that, and: What data does almost every nonprofit need to capture? Which deserves weekly attention versus monthly or annual? Plus, they have lots of resources! Meico is digital communications consultant and associate director of communications at NASTAD. Rebecca is digital marketing consultant at Spring Media Strategies. We talked at the 2016 Nonprofit Technology Conference last week, hosted by NTEN, the Nonprofit Technology Network. This is the first of 32 smart interviews from NTC.

 

Rob Mitchell: 1Q16 Fundraising Metrics

Rob MitchellHow did 1st quarter fundraising go and what’s changed in the full-year forecast since January? Atlas of Giving has the data and CEO Rob Mitchell shares all. Rob will be with me at the end of each quarter for analysis.

 

 


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Oppcoll hello and welcome to tony martignetti non-profit radio big non-profit ideas for the other ninety five percent. I’m your aptly named host it’s friday, april first. Oh, i’m glad you’re with me. I’d bear the embarrassment of galata phobia if i heard you laughing as you told me you missed today’s show digital matrix there’s so much you can measure where do you start? Mika whitlock and rebecca reyes answer that and what data does almost every non-profit need to capture, which deserves weekly attention versus monthly or annual. Plus they have lots of resource is miko is digital communications consultant and associate director of communications at nass. Dad rebecca is digital marketing consultant at spring bdo strategies. We talked at the twenty sixteen non-profit technology conference last week, hosted by n ten non-profit technology network, and this will be the first of thirty two smart interviews that i got from also one q sixteen metrics world about metrics today. How did first quarter fund-raising go and what’s changed in the full year forecast since january? Atlas of giving has the data and ceo rob mitchell shares at all. Rob will be with me each quarter at the end for that quarterly analysis on tony’s take two. My blue pedicure challenge we’re sponsored by pursuant full service fund-raising data driven and technology enabled. You’ll raise more money pursuant dot com and by crowdster online and mobile fund-raising software for non-profits now with apple pay crowdster dot com here are miko whitlock and rebecca reyes, and this is actually the very last interview that i did at ntc, but we’re kicking it off with them. Welcome to tony martignetti non-profit radio coverage of sixteen ntc, of course that’s, the non-profit technology conference in san jose, california, where in the convention center and this is also port of sixteen. Sorry of port of ntc conversations. My guests are miko whitlock and rebecca reyes, and their session topic is digital metrics. What to measure how and why we’re going to get to that very shortly. First after high like the and, oh, auntie si swag item for this interview, which is a t shirt from service analytics. Design there, you could see that there’s uh, some artistry to this sametz analytics swag final swag altum for the conference, this joins our swag pile unceremoniously thrown into the pile, and we are wrapping up our coverage of sixteen ntcdinosaur last of thirty two interviews, which will be playing over the next many months on non-profit radio with me rico whitlock he’s, digital communications consultant and associate director for communications at nass, ted and s t a t we’ll get to that masek and rebecca reyes she’s, digital marketing consultant at spring media strategies become rebecca. Welcome. Thank you. Thank you. Have you want non-profit radio? We call what is nasty? Nasco is the national alliance of state in territories, directors and that’s. Just a fancy way. Territorial aids directors, directors and that’s. Just a fancy way of saying that we are a national association that represents public health officials focused on ending hiv and hepatitis. Okay, so we work in all fifty states and the u s territories. All right, rebecca, how about spring dea strategies? Were they about? We do digital marketing strategy and campaigns for non-profits. Okay, focus on an environmental organizations. All right, all right. Digital matrix how do we know we’re back-up let’s start with you. How do we know what we should be measuring for? Our organization’s obviously varies across. It definitely varies. There are a couple of metrics that just every organization should mention measure in your website, email, social media. But it really comes down to what kinds of things are you looking for? What matters for your particular organization. Okay, what are your goals? Who are your audience? All right. And we’ll get to the ones that apply toe on what you say in this description. Almost every organization. But how do we know? How do we decide? What’s what’s? Best for us. It comes down to your goals. So we’re looking for gold. What were you trying to achieve with your website? All those channels you mentioned exactly. Okay. And i would extend that doesn’t so it’s essentially a formula, right? So you understand who your audience is? Our and a hint here is that the general public is not your audience, so you won’t be as specific as possible. And then the other part of his what rebecca said, which is? You want to understand what your goals. With the audience, what do you actually want them to do once you’ve identified them? And in the last part is what does success actually looked like? So when you bring the audience in the girls together, what a success look like when you’re able to figure those things out, then you know, roughly what are you looking for? Based on the platform that you’re using it as a metrix? Okay, so some of our outcomes might be more volunteers five thousand signatures on the petition exactly ten thousand calls to senators throughout the country exactly more dollars raised. What? Whatever whatever outcome is for our organisation. Maybe for a particular campaign and all those things i mentioned could be in our individual campaigns. Yes. Alright. What are we trying to achieve? And i guess in how long? Yes, maybe a timeframe. Ok? Yeah. So exactly. So you’re smart objectives, right? So you want to you want to make sure that you have focused goals, but that they are also time bound time. Marriageable, right? Was that sports chant for hyre? Measurable, right s measurable, achievable r i forget he is a time. Yes, yes, i remember. We’ll talk about smart, smart stand for i’m using smart lower case e putting on this clock. All right, i don’t know, but they have smart goal. Yeah, it z z o way to go. All right. Okay. What are the ones that every organization or to be measuring nico let’s go nufer this or nearly every organization should know something. Something yeah, so let’s, start with the basics. So if you’re an organization, you should have a website. The and the very basic right. And if you have a website, a couple of things you won’t be looking for, you want to know how many people are coming to your website. So that looks that you sort of unique page views. You want to know how long roughly people are staying on your pages? You know, are they digest in your content and you want to know where traffic is coming from? Is it coming from google? Is it coming from facebook? Do you have a partner organization that’s using a news owner that’s that’s promoting your materials and your partner’s got a really good job driving puts you a website. You want to understand those basic measures so that over time you can begin to understand how you make adjustments, so if you want to extend your reach and you have this party organizations really good job of pushing your things out, well, can you partner with a similar organizations that are doing as good a job of helping you drive people to your website? And again, you want to be very clear about making sure that the numbers don’t exist in a vacuum as well. So you want to go to compare them to a previous time here. So it’s not enough to say that we had five thousand web site visitors this month because we’re right previous month, right? So exactly so you want to compare to the previous point in time, okay? And if you’re just starting out it’s okay, if you don’t have those benchmarks, you’re gonna build that overtime. Yeah, all right, let me point out that there’s noise behind us because and t c sixteen is coming to a close as it is for cliffs pulling apart dahna boots and there’s there’s traffic back-up for that as banners get stored but non-profit radio persevere, we’re here, we’re here for the duration. We’re not back-up early. Like like are we are co located booth across the way i won’t. I won’t say which video, organization and site that is, but they’re huge on dh. They’re close to wrapping it up, not us, not radio. Go on, bek are staying with me. Thank you, hyre rebecca, are these things that it was my voice again, cracks like, i’m twelve these things that we could just describe, referring traffic and how long people staying on the site, etcetera, is this stuff we can all we could get all from google analytics, or, or or elsewhere. Absolutely. Google analytics is kind of industry standard. I’m there are a lot of tools out there, there’s, you know, you can get into really deep, you can get into reporting, you can, um, combined it with google sheets and put on adam for google analytics, so, you know, create those nice reports for yourself, but there also some third party tools that can really, you know, send them all of their great information to your emails. You don’t even have to go into google analytics to see that kind of information, but one thing is there are there’s a difference between the kind of data that you just monitor on a daily, weekly or monthly basis. And then there are some more advanced kinds of things that you want to take a look at it just kind of everyone started maybe quarterly or yearly whenever you get a chance so you can really dig a little bit deeper and take action on those things. Help us understand what, what we should be looking at weekly or monthly versus quarterly. Which one? So you want to kind of, you know, take a look at your bounce rate or your time on sight? How many visitors are you getting those air. Kind of some of the very basic things you just want to keep an eye on. And if you see a spike or you see a dip in the numbers that’s gonna be red flag, but you can go a little bit geever and look at those some of those basic analytics alongside some of the other kinds of metrics, like landing pages or exit pages. So you know what? Air you top landing pages. Two people spend a lot of time on those pages. What are your say? You have some really important sections in your website? Um, i’ve found websites, you know, have an average of, um, some the websites that i look at having average of, say, a minute and a half for overall time. But some very specific sections have maybe an average of five minutes, which is really great. And that tells you okay, there really? Digging into the information and really taking the time to learn about your organization. Okay. Okay. Now you mention the bounce, right? That is how many? Not how many people leave after viewing only one page. Is that the bounce? Right, right. Yeah. Yeah. Okay. I know a little something not trying to take over fighting. Okay, you’re tuned to non-profit radio. Tony martignetti also hosts a podcast for the chronicle of philanthropy. Fund-raising fundamentals is a quick ten minute burst of fund-raising insights, published once a month. Tony’s guests are expert in crowdfunding, mobile giving event fund-raising direct mail and donor cultivation. Really, all the fund-raising issues that make you wonder, am i doing this right? Is there a better way there is? Find the fund-raising fundamentals archive it. Tony martignetti dot com that’s marketmesuite n e t t i remember there’s, a g before the end, thousands of listeners have subscribed on itunes. You can also learn maura, the chronicle website, philanthropy dot com fund-raising fundamentals, the better way. Now. Okay, wait. Record. You mentioned? You know how long people stay on the safe? That you know, a minute and a half? Two minutes might not be bad if the site has first of all, it’s not marketing anything. Maybe there isn’t. A donation function means an education type site. And the poster short or the videos are short. Maybe a minute and a half to two minutes. Maybe that’s not so bad that it definitely. You know, this is the time on sight. The average has slowly gone down, you know, because people spend more time just going jumping around two from site to site. Especially if your traffic, a lot of it is coming from, you know, paid ads or organic search there going to be really cold leads. And so you’re gonna have a lot of people that, you know, it might not be quite the right fit and they are going to leave. But so that’s, why? It’s important to dig a little bit deeper and to see. Okay, maybe a minute and a half. That’s not, you know, super awesome. But if you have really high time on sight for some of the internal pages that really matter. If you are able to convert a lot of those people, you know, it doesn’t matter if they only spend thirty seconds. Okay, okay. Go, go. Yes, toe after that, i think it’s two things important to keep in mind. The first is what? Your goals. So people come to the website. What do you actually want them to do? R are they filling out a form? Teo, sign up for the email list. Are they watching a video? And that has to be aligned with your analysis of the time on page. The other part of it is his relative, right? So you need to be able to compare it to something else, get it having the time unpaid in isolation doesn’t really mean anything. Well, your point earlier that compared tto what’s. The trend over over a year, six months, exactly. Doing yeah, you may have different. May have different goals for your sight in a different periods over exactly pains. Yes. So two minutes might not be bad if donations are on the run. If the donation pages seymour or traffic? Yes. Okay. What about it? Yeah. Okay. Think about this. Okay. Anything? More and want to say about the metrics that nearly every organization should be following wait, so we just talked about the website, but there’s also social media there’s there’s snusz fund-raising there’s video on dso in the session that we that we covered, we sort of walk through each of these types of platforms of sort of want people through here the basic metrics that you need and hear the advanced metrics so people check out the session, notes they’ll find the slides where we sort of breakdown all of this information, ok, where the session notes i’m so that if you go to the intern website and you start for our session of digital metrics, there is a link to it they’re so intend out orders where you want to go and search for our session, okay, and the title again digital metrics what to measure, how and why, and the session hashtag is sixteen dig metrics d i g metrics with dejan metrics yes, and lost a great information on twitter if you’re following the conversation using that hashtag oh really? Yes, did you get a lot of session? A lot of live tweeting during the session? Lot allowed treating a lot of a lot of feedback and actually will be sending out the slides and alerting people to that through using that hashtag okay, okay, excellent xero forgot. What did you promise people? Tools and processes for collecting, reporting let’s not talk about some tools, rebecca, you start to touch the surface a little bit scratched. Serviceable what other tools do you? You both recommend well, very basic tools like i’m either google sheets or excel spreadsheets. That’s a really great place to just start, you know, identify the top five or ten things that you want to monitor over time that really matter to your organization and your organization’s goals just keep it, keep trucking there and then you know, whatever email tool you use. You know, facebook hasn’t really great analytics, twitter, youtube, they all have really great analytics built into the system. So whatever social media tool you use, you know, check that out. Also scheduling tools like who’d sweet buffers about social. They all have some really great analytics built into them. So that’s a good place to start. Just it, you know, see all of your social media information in one. Place. Okay. Are there any analytics tools that you like beyond what’s what’s imbedded in each of the sites that that go go even deeper? Yep. There’s some reporting tools that i really like if you check out springing a strategies dot com i have an under the block in the tool section. Um, some free tools for facebook, twitter, youtube, um, and interest. So you can see it’s, um, there’s a lot of tools out there. So i tried together some of the really best ones. Um, a lot of them are either free or very affordable because non-profits obviously on a tight budget. Another tool that i recommend checking out is k p i dashboards. So that’s key performance indicators. So this will really help you track, you know, from beginning to end. What? Uh, truck conversion. So if you really care about donations you’ll be able to see, you know, across your platforms, what’s working and that’s gonna be really great tool to bring everything all in one place. Okay, how about you make you got tools so you could recommend? Sure. So i would just echo what were rebecca mentioned? So we do use koegler analytics. For our website way, love it way also use about social in terms of the management, and i’m a really big thing of keeping it simple. And so we use google drive and the google sheets a za way to track metrics. And so those are some of the favorite tools that we use and in terms of the just basic principles, i would encourage folks to keep it simple. I think sometimes we spend a lot of time trying to find the perfect tool to get the job done. And the truth is that there isn’t a perfect tool because the audience and the goals are different for each organization is sometimes even within the organism nation that’s going to vary from campaign to campaign. And so there is no one tool that tells all of that. And so, my my recommendations for folks to find a few good tools that work and you souls ok, ok, but ntcdinosaur coming down around us. Matt hall, there’s trucks, there’s forklift, there’s there’s a manhole. That man lifting up the ceiling! Take him down. That was hanging from another boot. But we’re persevering. Wait another five or six minutes ago, okay? But very good advice, teo. You recognize that each organization going to different and and really you know what i mean? Don’t be afraid to try something. Yes. I mean, this is analytics. Yes. So try try a tool if it doesn’t. It’s not yielding what you need, then scrap it. Try something else, right? Yeah, and hard to fail it. Exactly. So and don’t remit the will. Right? So there you are in a community of organizations that are doing work similar to you. Ask someone that’s what intimacy is all about. Have someone. And if you have something that you can share with someone, share it. We grow stronger together and intent is very good about that. Yes. Over communities of practice. There’s got to be community back-up around analytics. There is one for digital communications. Okay, so okay. Are you in there? I am apart. Okay. Rebecca, you in there to get alright. And ten. Very sharing. Okay, even if you’re not a member. You khun? Yeah. There’s so much you could get from intense. Exactly. Then the membership was so during inexpensive anyway. Yeah. Amy sample ward he’s gonna say it’s cheap it’s, affordable, accessible that’s. Accessible? Like seventy dollars for a whole organs for everybody in the organization, you’ve got to be a member. All right, that’s sufficient and ten shot out. Um, okay. We still have a few more minutes together. What else have we talked about from your session that we should. So we spent a lot of time talking about strategy and process. So we we talked at the very beginning of our time together today about understanding people goals in your missions of success. That’s going to be very important because today or tomorrow, you know, there might be another equivalent to facebook. Everyone is sort of jumping on the bandwagon for yeah, if you understand your people, your goals and what you want to achieve, you can understand why they’re not that flat from actually makes sense for you. The other part of the session that we talked about was process in terms of how do you actually make this work day today before we go. Teo. Rebecca. Anything else you want to add about? Sure. We got time. Thank you. I just wanted to give a few examples of how people can go a little bit deeper. Eso you know we talked a lot about ok, these are the basics for monitoring, right? But you really want to make sure you find data that you can take action on. So that’s where, you know, combining the time on site with the top lining pages, for example, also really good easy practice to do is to take a look at your top. Paige is most visited pages or pages with a highest time on sight or whatever kind of metric you want to compare it to that particular day and look at your top ten and your bottom ten and put them side by side because you’ll likely see some differences. You you might spot cem patterns between the most popular and the least popular in that particular category. So then you can really, you know, once you spot those differences, definitely take a look at all of the rest of your articles and see if that trend holds true throughout your sight. And then you can stop doing things that don’t work and start doing things that really do work. Okay, i love the idea of comparing top to bottom. You’ve seen this and you found correlations? Yes, so things like headlines, for example, you know, obviously headlines like numbers or how to do really well versus things like questions or things that are really long and not very descriptive don’t do very well, and the difference can be huge, you know, from just five or ten klicks to an article versus hundreds, yes, okay, so buy-in top five ways to increase your facebook ad revenue versus social media strategies exactly, and of course, you want to have a variety of headlines you don’t wantto have Numbers and every single 1 but at least, but i’m just, you know, stop my head, mention numbers, okay, so no interesting. All right? Topic. Comparing kapin bottom. Excellent. Anything you want, teo. So you had some you said you have a couple of examples of another. Another strategy example. Um, let’s. See? Well, for one of the organizations that i worked with issues, they have a lot of different issue areas that they work with. So it’s really important to track, um, you know, just kind of keep the pulse on the issue. Areas that are most popular, so could be education or health care or youth was kind of a unique non-profit in that sense, and so for us, since issues are so important, that’s one thing that we really track in those, you know, nice spreadsheets. And over time, you can see in the grafts, you know, sometimes issues creep up, and sometimes they kind of drop off and that’s a really great indicator of okay. Maybe we should, you know, step back from the issue, this particular issue for a little while and focus on this other one because you’re really listening to. Then what is your audience want? And you, khun, sometimes see some trends happening before theirs. A national event that occurs, dahna okay, become anything you want, teo. No. I mean, if we were ready to sum up, i can sort of give cem really quick sort of high points that people should start focusing. Not quite. Okay. You said you were a strategy and process. Yeah, probably. I cut you off. You wanted to go to rebecca because you have a strategy. Okay. What do you say about process? No. So it’s about keeping it simple. And so we we work in a space where many of us where many different hats and we’re doing many things. And so rebecca touched on something earlier about, like, how often you should be doing things weinger you know how often should be looking at. So how certain metrics exactly versus exactly so you’re once you sort of built up practice of doing this. You have what? I have some general benchmarks in your in your mind. So you’re able to do what i call a spot checking where you are, maybe on the on a weekly basis sort of looking at your website numbers you’re looking at what’s happening on social media, and then you were able to dahna really quickly say, oh, well, that looks a little off. From where we were last week, where we were last month, i wonder what this is and you can sort of determine how you invest your time. And i think the something else to keep in keep in mind is there are lots of resources that are out there, you know? So buffer has a really great block on they talk, i think, in a very nuanced than assessable way for folks about metrics, and although they’re one of the capital tools that help people manage social media platforms, they’re also really good about sort of talking about where they have sort of fall short and where other tools might be. Ableto pick up it’s over yeah, buffer. Okay, about for dot com they have a really wonderful block where they talk about metrics. Beth cancer has a wonderful blawg and john john death camp has been on this show many times, including from yesterday, yesterday and here it ntcdinosaur before through and john hayden is also he’s. A wonderful resource is well, so they both have resource is specific to this particular topic. Um, it had been on the show also including this year at ntc. Been on before yeah. Okay, now we can wrap it up. Okay? Let’s. See, rebecca, you want to get the final word, but, uh, what’s a measure of how and why digital metrics i just want to echo what mika had said earlier of you really want to look at your particular organization schools and contextualized your data there’s lots of tools out there that well, come and go. So that’s, why i don’t. I’m a little bit hesitant to recommend very specific tools because they’re here today gone tomorrow and tomorrow. There’s gonna be lots of other great tools out there. So as long as you know what you were looking for, you know, what do you want people to do? And, um, take that time every once in a while to dig a little bit deeper? Have those come couple basic stats, you know, five, ten metrics that you just keep an eye on, make sure things are going well throughout the year and then, you know, maybe quarterly spent some time looking a little bit deeper. Like i gave some those examples about landing pages and headlines just so you can find out what works for your organization, okay, we’re gonna leave it there. That was rebecca raya’s, she’s, digital consult. Digital marketing consultant at spring media strategies. And also miko whitlock, digital communications consultant and associate director for communications. At nasty on what, again is nasty at the national line. So state in territorial aids directors. Thank you very much, vic. Oh, thanks so much. Thank you. Thank you for being with us. Tony martignetti non-profit radio coverage of sixteen ntc wrapping it up with the, uh, the four cliffs and the people movers and the union guys are all here. Tto back-up sixteen ntc, thanks so much for being with us. Rob mitchell and one q sixteen metrics coming up first. Pursuant, one of their tools is prospector. It uses your existing data to find your highest priority. Potential donors. You know who to focus on it identifies which of your donors are most likely to upgrade their giving, which is cool. Because then, knowing that you can prioritize your cultivation, you got limited time. And you need to raise more money. Prospector shows you who to focus on that’s already in your database. Not bringing in new names already in your database. Check out prospector at pursuing dot com what’s going on at crowdster dot com they have a deal for non-profit radio listeners get thirty days free or fifty percent off, you can try a crowdster peer-to-peer fund-raising sight completely free for a month or get fifty percent off. That means pay for a month and get another month free or sign up for two months and get two months added on free. You can claim your deal at crowdster dot com in the chat window, tell them you’re from non-profit radio and choose your deal it’s that simple. Now tony’s, take two my blue pedicure challenge back in two twenty thirteen my dark age of social media when i thought facebook likes were the most important measure of success. Um, the non-profit radio page then had about one hundred fifty, likes, and since i was stuck on this vanity metric and it’s very suitable, but we’re just talking. We’re talking about metrics all day today, this silly metric i wanted more one hundred fifty seems it was embarrassing, i thought so. Two friends from high school, barbara massey and lisa martin, challenged that they would double the number of lights on the page, so they would get me to three hundred, and we agreed that if they did that, then i would get a blue pedicure. I don’t remember how we settled on that as the bet, but that’s what it became and they had to do it within. I think it was pretty short campaign was like two weeks or two or three weeks, and they did it, and so i kept up my side. I went across the street from the studio on west seventy second street in new york city, and i got a blue pedicure, and you can witness that because i shot video naturally, this is not something that you want to let go. I want to preserve this forever because it’s so important family memories. So the video is up at twenty martignetti dotcom my blue pedicure challenge that’s tony’s take two. I’m not really, you know, live listener, love podcast, pleasantries, affiliate affections. I don’t really feel it today. I don’t, uh i just, uh i’m sure they’re out there, you know, the live listeners, but no, no, i’m not. I’m not feeling up to it for on dh same thing with the podcast listeners your you know i know you’re there. Um, i’m not, and the affiliate affections, yeah, am and fm. I know you’re there, okay? You know, there’s, there’s, some gratitude. Rob mitchell, rob mitchell, you with us, right? I am with you, tony, i’m always with you. Thank you. You’re the ceo of atlas, of giving it atlas of giving dot com and of course, you’re also on twitter at philanthropy. Man, how you doing? Welcome back to non-profit radio. Hey, thanks, it’s. Always good to be with you, tony. Thank you. Always good. I think this is this the first time that you’re not in the studio. But on the show i said, i think this might be the second time i’m not in the second. Allright, i love coming to the studio for the whole new york experience in the upper west side experience. It’s, it’s, uh, it’s irreplaceable. But, tony, today, after the show, i’m leaving immediately to drive to houston to go to the final four. So that’s, that is my excuse today for not being in the studio with you. Final four is that is that is that one baseball? No, that that would be a collegiate. Basketball. Basketball. Ok, is that the one with the free throws and the field goals? Basketball is that grows field goals and lots of yelling, screaming and bands. Playing in-kind people being interested because they want to find out if they’re going to make money on there on their march madness brackets march madness. All right, that sounds like more like illness than ah then, uh, then something you better okay? You’re a sports guy. I, uh i’ve heard of sports. Okay? S so you’re going to come on every quarter now, the end of the quarter, and you’re gonna tell us what has happened in that quarter and then how that has affected your forecast? The atlas of giving forecast for twenty sixteen. So i’m very excited about this. Good. We’re going to use every quarter. That’s cool? Yeah, i’m excited about it, too. I think i think it’s a good way for listeners and listeners, whether they’re live podcast or or affiliate, i think it’s a great way to peak to keep up, keep their finger on the pulse of american philanthropy and that’s what we like to say we’re doing at the alice of giving we have an atlas of giving twitter page at atlas of giving as you mentioned my twitter pages at full answer, man and we have analysis of giving facebook page and google plus page. So there are a number of ways for people to keep their finger on the pulse of what’s happening in american philanthropy. Okay. That’s ah, that’s. More self promotion than i generally allow. So that’s it. We cut that off. Now that we’ve cut off. All right, let’s, talk about some data. The number is not good for january. Through where we had january through march. Right? I assume january through february. Okay, just just finished march yesterday. Were quick, but we’re not that quick. Okay. Okay. So january february. The number is not good. No it’s, not it’s. Ah it’s. A disappointing number. The the through february e-giving as down nationally. One point, four percent, which some people would argue it’s flat some people may argue is yeah, but it’s not since since the atlas of giving has been around, um, since the depression, this is the first time we wait. Have we have seen two months of consecutive, um, downs down data? Altum and it’s there’s. Some explanations for it. Okay, it’s worrisome. Alright, first first time you’re saying the first time in how long? That way. So the first two months of the year have been down. When did this last happened? Two thousand nine. Okay. Depth of the recession. Okay. All right. So it’s gets down sector while yeah, nationwide. One point four percent. And what does that mean for the forecast for twenty sixteen? Well, the forecast has also taken a dip um, off of our original forecast and our forecast from last last month. The forecast today. And you have to understand that we we keeping our finger on the pulse of american philanthropy and the factors that are involved in charitable giving, including economic, demographic and event factors. We’re looking at a broad spectrum, and our forecast for calendar year two thousand sixteen is that two thousand sixteen, at least today is forecast to finish down to percent. Yeah. Okay. All right. And the point is, you know, this gets revised every single month. I mean, you’re you’re going to be coming on each quarter, but each month you revise the forecast. So, you know, this is the most the most recent data that you can analyze, which is up to one month old. Exactly. All right. And then next month, maybe maybe it’ll continue to decline. Who knows? But all right, now, what way? Not now. What was the forecast? Have to refresh? My recollection is you were on talking about it. What was the twenty sixteen forecast back in january? When when you were on the show? Well, it was a modest too. It was a modest two percent growth, two percent growth. Okay, so we’ve lost four percent from from then. Yes, because now we’re showing an annual decline of two. So okay, all right, well, you know, we keep our tracking the i mean, the news can always be good. And who knows what will happen at the end by the end of the year. But, you know, this is what this is, what data analysis is so people should be aware that the first two months were we’re tour. Okay? You have some suggestion as to why this maybe yeah, there there are several signal we’ve we’ve looked at the data, and we suspect that, um, the reason the forecasts has changed so well, i don’t want to say dramatically because that to me, four percent plus or minus i mean, if you think about political polls, they’re off four percent plus or minus so i don’t want to say dramatically that’s that’s that would be no being just keeping that stoploss that four percent of the reason that the forecast has changed from up to down is that, um, the the guy, the really smart guys who are looking at us gdp, gross sametz really gross domestic product have lowered their forecast for two thousand sixteen, and as every as most people know, gross domestic riel gross domestic product has a major is a major contributor, two charitable giving so that’s one reason. Okay, the expectations in the forecast for the united states stock market has been lowered. Also, not if you think about this time last year we were waiting for a correction, but instead of a correction occurring, the stock market was soaring at this time last year. And so instead of instead of revising numbers down, we were revised your number’s up. And so the the expectation and forecast of the stock market has been lowered so that that is that’s a contributing factor. Recent oil price increases now depends on where you live if you like that or you don’t like that. But for most americans, it’s being reflected at the gas pump, and what that means is that they’re paying more for their gasoline when they go to fill up and they have less disposable income. And since individuals account for seventy three percent of all giving, when when individuals have less disposable income, they have less to give. Yeah, so also get rob rob the objective gases such a a common commodity. I mean it’s like food. I mean, you know, in our car culture, you’re filling up, you know, once a week or something, you’re seeing this increase every week or maybe even more often, and it influences your your opinion of how much disposable income you have, it does absolutely, it does. The same thing is true for other things, like taxes when taxes go up, there’s less disposable income and i don’t care if it’s local taxes or national state taxes or national taxes. It’s, it’s all for individual givers, it’s all about disposable income, okay? And i’m just saying i’m pointing out gas because it’s such a a commodity that people buy so frequently that you know, people jog around and monitor oh, it’s one eighty seven there was one eighty nine over. At the place where i usually go to send mean people compare these pennies and if you see the penny’s going up week after week you ah, i guess you are less wealthy and you feel less well. Okay. Yes. Then then there is then there is the presidential political campaign and i have seen at least two reports from what i would consider to be reliable sources that say campaign e-giving does not affect charitable giving. I am. I am not in a position to say to you today that it does, though we are studying it and and are preparing a report to be released in june about the implications of political fund-raising on charitable giving. But what i would say to you is that campaign interest and uncertainty about future leadership is leaving potential donors on the sideline. Okay, all right, now, let me ask a question about that. How does the atlas of giving study this? How do you do that? Well, way. Have. As you know, tony, we have sixty five algorithms, and those algorithms are based on economic, demographic and event factors. And so, as as we look at each of those sixty five algorithms, whether they’re for a particular source of particular state or a particular sector durney we’re able to get a read on what is what is causing charitable giving to do what it is doing and that’s why we say, we’re keeping our pulse on american philanthropy, and right now, you know, if you look at if you look a campaign giving in terms of it’s out geever its volume in comparison with charitable giving, it’s it’s not very it’s, not very large, but when people are wondering what the leadership of the country is going to do, what taxes are going to do when there’s uncertainty, which there is a great amount of uncertainty today. Um, in both in both the democratic and republican parties, there’s talk of brokered conventions and so forth, people are more cautious, and they tend to stay on the sideline and and that’s what we’re seeing, yeah, so amazing in our algorithms. So it may not be so much the money that people spend on the presidential campaign. E-giving but the attitude of the feeling of uncertainty that’s what you’re suggesting absolutely ok, we’ll get a i think we’ll get where we’re going to. Is we’ll have you back in july because then that’ll be the end of the second quarter, and then you’ll be able to, um, talk about your june paper on on the impact of the presidential campaign on giving. How does that sound? Sounds great. Ok, we’ll take a break now we’re not wrapping up. I don’t want you think, tien, you got more to go, but we’re gonna take our break, and you and i are going to continue our convo, stay with us. Like what you’re hearing a non-profit radio tony’s got more on youtube, you’ll find clips from a standup comedy, tv spots and exclusive interviews catch guests like seth gordon, craig newmark, the founder of craigslist marquis of eco enterprises, charles best from donors choose dot org’s aria finger do something that worked and they only levine from new york universities heimans center on philantech tony tweets to, he finds the best content from the most knowledgeable, interesting people in and around non-profits to share on his stream. If you have valuable info, he wants to re tweet you during the show. You can join the conversation on twitter using hashtag non-profit radio twitter is an easy way to reach tony he’s at tony martignetti narasimhan t i g e n e t t i remember there’s a g before the end he hosts a podcast for the chronicle of philanthropy fund-raising fundamentals is a short monthly show devoted to getting over your fund-raising hartals just like non-profit radio, toni talks to leading thinkers, experts and cool people with great ideas. As one fan said, tony picks their brains and i don’t have to leave my office fund-raising fundamentals was recently dubbed the most helpful non-profit podcast you have ever heard, you can also join the conversation on facebook, where you can ask questions before or after the show. The guests were there, too. Get insider show alerts by email, tony tells you who’s on each week and always includes link so that you can contact guest directly. To sign up, visit the facebook page for tony martignetti dot com. Lively conversation. Top trans sounded life that’s, tony martignetti non-profit radio. And i am his knees. Carmela and i am his nephew, gino. Oppcoll no fools. My sweet niece and nephew. They listen to non-profit radio that they have no choice. But so that right, that that was really cool. Okay, rob mitchell, you want to share some other? Ah, some of the reasons so well is the oil and the gdp and the stock market forecast down the campaigning. What? You got other other other potential reasons or way exhausted our okay, what else? Give us one. Okay? So church e-giving, which is the largest sector accounts for the largest sector of giving in the u s that’s. Like was declining at a faster rate than the national e-giving right raid. The religion is what about a third? Right? Thirty two. Thirty three percent. Something okay now. It’s. Always it’s. It’s, i think. Now remember, tony, that about ten years ago it was about fifty percent. Yeah, well, that’s, sort of the point. I was going to make that you after year when you and i have been talking. I’m not sure it happened in twenty fifteen, but i know twenty, thirteen and fourteen. It was losing aa percent. It was it was losing market share one percent a year. I forget whether that happened in twenty fifteen i can’t remember, but i don’t expect you to remember, but but it’s been declining? Yeah, and now you’re saying it used to be fifty that was before me, but or before i used to pay attention to the stuff. So all right. And then so now, in the first two months, it declined. You think it declined faster than the one point four percent nationwide, right? I mean, sector across the how much? How much did church giving decline? Church e-giving declined. Hang on one second here, jesus was not church e-giving declined look at that rate of three point four percent three point four that’s more than double the one point four across all sectors, yes, wow! And since it’s the largest sector that we measure its impact on total national e-giving is bigger. So it is a very it’s, very significant to look a church e-giving look att gifts to religion and and really study what the trend is on trend has been that fewer and fewer americans for associating with congregations of any kind. They’re going to the they’re going to the church of trump. Well, they’re worshipping a new yorkers. So i’ll leave that worshipping at the feet of donald trump. I don’t know how relieved that you know, but what what what do you think you know this is this is because three new yorkers that are putting aside cruise it’s three new yorkers, but we don’t do politics. I’m sorry, let’s see, oh, the church giving. Why do you think church giving his declining thie elderly or dying and what the measurements have been very consistent over the last two decades, and that is that fewer and fewer people are so our affiliating with churches are attending. Church is are joining churches and altum if you’d like an analogy, look it look at western europe because i think we’re headed to the to the same. We’re sort of headed in the same places western europe. Religion is becoming less and less a significant part of american life, especially for younger americans. Millennials particularly, are not affiliating with churches at the same rate as their parents. Yeah, okay, okay. Let’s, see? All right. There’s. Some other things. Tony two interesting. Okay, but we also have to spend time with sametz commendations for what non-profits should do with this. So let me ask you all right? So let’s, move on me when we need to do that. Okay. Let’s, meet teo. I want to go now. Tio what’s happening across other sectors aside from religion, are things constant or or things changing there too? In the first two months that things are, every sector is down and giving dafs laid for two. Ok. One is the environmental sector which is up and the human service. And by the way, the environmental sector has, um, for the last five years been growing at a faster rate than any other sector. It’s call it. Call it awareness. Call it what you want. But the environmental sector, though it is the smallest giving sector is growing at the fastest rate. Um, the human needs sector are the human services sector is also growing off. All the rest all seven other sectors are in are in decline this year. Okay. Okay. Environment is that now that they have the smallest share i have your your pie chart here, environment is that two percent? Right? So so even a big increase how much is ah, how much is the environment up by how much? The environment is by two points up two point, two percent two point two and human services is up one percent. Okay, human services has about thirteen percent of total giving across all the different sectors. And that what we call an allocated, which also includes donor advised funds, is that zero percent growth. Okay, all right, let’s move to some recommendations for non-profits what? What do you suggesting? In light of what we know from the first two months of the year, it’s it’s time to use extreme caution and planning fiscal year budgets. Heimans as you well know, tony from the non-profits that you’ve worked with that you’re associated with or worked for, um, chances are the but the income budget is set by somebody sticking a wet finger in the air and saying, we’re going to do better than last year by x percent. Now, this is not the time to do that kind of planning. Uh, non-profits need to be especially careful in planning their fiscal year. Budgets it’s also time to consider delaying the launch of new capital campaigns until conditions improve. Lastly, i would say if you’re in, if you’re in mid year in your fiscal year, it’s time for you to modify you’re fiscal year budget in order to prepare for reality. So if your fiscal year, if you’re fiscal year budget was calling for an inn was with based on an increase in charitable giving of eight or ten percent now’s the time to welcome to reality it’s not gonna happen, mom now’s the time to adjust your budget to reality and to really situations. And so it means that you should cut back on your on expenses. How you cut back on expenses is a bonem organization by organization decision. But i would never recommend cutting back on fund-raising cost, because now more than ever you need your fund-raising staff out there trying to raise money for you. Yeah. Alright now, rob, we have just about a minute and a half left. So you need to keep that in mind. Now. What happens though if in the next quarter things rise and you know the forecast is now for, like a three. Percent increased for twenty sixteen. I mean hyre we can’t keep adjusting budgets down and then up, and we can’t work like that, either. Well, tony, i would disagree. I would say that the i s i would say that these organizations that are going to do the best in the future are those that are nimble enough to adjust their budgets toe what is really happening in the charitable giving economy. And so if i come back to you next quarter and say, we’re projecting that giving will be up three percent for the for the calendar year, i’m going to have a different message for you. But i do think that the the organizations that are nimble enough to to follow what is going on in the charitable giving economy are those that are going to have the best result. Okay, all right, we’re gonna leave it there. Rob mitchell that’s excellent. You’re going to back that’s a planet for july when we’ll talk about the second quarter and your paper on the political campaign and and and how it affects charitable giving, you’ll find rob mitchell at atlas of giving dot com and although also at atlas of giving, and he personally is at philanthropy, man, or is that like to point out at philantech roman? Either way, thank you very much, rob mitchell. Thanks, tony, my pleasure and watch for me on tv at the final four. Okay, i’ll, uh, i’ll be rooting for the mets next week. Next week, more from the non-profit technology conference amy sample ward on why non-profit technology network deserves your attention and volunteer training long distance what if all your volunteers can’t always come to your office? If you missed any part of today’s show, i don’t care what you do do whatever the hell you want, it’s april fool’s day and i know you didn’t buy that nonsense about live listen love podcast pleasantries and affiliate affections, apathy i know you didn’t my feeble attempt tio good, thank you. If you missed any part of today’s show, i endure you find it on tony martignetti dot com where in the world else would you go? I am still groping for the way forward. I don’t know. Maybe i need religion, but religions giving his down that’s a bad sign for me, perhaps responsive by pursuant online tools for small and midsize non-profits data driven and technology enabled pursuing dot com and by crowdster online and mobile fund-raising software for non-profits now with apple pay crowdster dot com. Our creative producer is claire meyerhoff. Sam liebowitz is the line producer. Gavin dollars are am and fm outreach director shows social media is by susan chavez. And our music is by scott stein. Be with me next week for non-profit radio. Big non-profit ideas for the other ninety five percent. Go out and be great. What’s not to love about non-profit radio tony gets the best guests check this out from seth godin this’s the first revolution since tv nineteen fifty and henry ford nineteen twenty it’s the revolution of our lifetime here’s a smart, simple idea from craigslist founder craig newmark yeah insights, orn presentation or anything? People don’t really need the fancy stuff they need something which is simple and fast. When’s the best time to post on facebook facebook’s andrew noise nose at traffic is at an all time hyre on nine a m or eight pm so that’s when you should be posting your most meaningful post here’s aria finger ceo of do something dot or ge young people are not going to be involved in social change if it’s boring and they don’t see the impact of what they’re doing so you got to make it fun and applicable to these young people look so otherwise a fifteen and sixteen year old they have better things to dio they have xbox, they have tv, they have their cell phones. Me dar is the founder of idealist took two or three years for foundation staff, sort of dane toe add an email address card. It was like it was phone. This email thing is right and that’s why should i give it away? Charles best founded donors choose dot or ge somehow they’ve gotten in touch kind of off line as it were on dno, two exchanges of brownies and visits and physical gifts. Mark echo is the founder and ceo of eco enterprises. You may be wearing his hoodies and shirts. Tony, talk to him. Yeah, you know, i just i’m a big believer that’s not what you make in life. It sze, you know, tell you make people feel this is public radio host majora carter. Innovation is in the power of understanding that you don’t just do it. You put money on a situation expected to hell. You put money in a situation and invested and expect it to grow and savvy advice for success from eric sacristan. What separates those who achieve from those who do not is in direct proportion to one’s ability to ask others for help. The smartest experts and leading thinkers air on tony martignetti non-profit radio big non-profit ideas for the other ninety five percent.

Nonprofit Radio for January 29, 2016: 2015 Giving Report & 2016 Forecast

Big Nonprofit Ideas for the Other 95%

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Rob Mitchell, Paul Schervish & Doug White2015 Giving Report & 2016 Forecast

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hello and welcome to tony martignetti non-profit radio big non-profit ideas for the other ninety five percent i’m your aptly named host oh i’m glad you’re with me i’d be hit with deacon veins teno sinusitis if if you handed me the mere notion that you missed today’s show twenty fifteen giving report and twenty sixteen forecast we don’t need to wait until june atlas of giving ceo rob mitchell releases the atlases analysis of last year’s giving and their initial forecast for twenty sixteen adding commentary are professors paul schervish from boston college and doug white from columbia university because you can’t have a report without academic commentary it’s it’s just not done we’re sponsored by pursuing full service fund-raising data driven and technology enabled you’ll raise more money pursuing dot com also by crowdster online and mobile fund-raising software for non-profits now with apple pay mobile donation feature crowdster dot com i’m very glad that the latest data brings rob mitchell back to the show and the studio he is ceo of the atlas of giving reporting on and forecasting charitable giving in the us in his past he led national fund-raising for the american cancer society they’re at atlas of giving dot com and he’s at philanthropy man dot com which could also be read as philantech roman ah that’s on twitter not philantech roman dot com at philantech roman or if you prefer philanthropy man which is probably what he prefers or we could do at atlas of giving or adverse e-giving rob mitchell don’t start talking until i say welcome robin i’m sorry welcome back i’m not going i’m not going to tolerate anarchy on the show welcome rob mitchell welcome back it’s good to have you back thanks tony it’s always good to be back very welcome and don’t correct me no you can’t you can correct me actually i’m a little off today i’ll tell you what sam why don’t you bring down a paul and doug’s mike’s because robin are going talk for a few minutes and then ah we’re going to bring paul and dug in rob mitchell before we get to the announcement the big announcement i saw the press release today and everything tell us about atlas of giving what is this thing that you’re running atlas of giving as the only measurement of charitable giving in the united states by sector source and state that has produced monthly and we are also the only forecast of charitable giving by sector source and state produced updated monthly how do you do this report and forecast well we we had a i had a situation with a boardmember when i was at the american cancer society who was looking for a benchmark on how we’re doing and he suggested that charitable giving in the united states was tied directly to certain economic demographic and event factors and if we could identify what those were we could build a benchmark so we hired a firm of twenty five phd level statisticians and analyst and we were able to and we gave them forty two years of published giving data they were able to come back to us with an out they not only found what factors were involved in charitable giving they found out what strengths for each what the strengths of those factors were relative strength relative strengths okay this is called correlation science so they came back to us with an algorithm for national giving when matched with forty two years of past history matched at ninety nine point five percent which we call a correlation of coefficient of correlation and that was great so that was that was our first algorithm ok since then we’ve built algorithm we now have sixty five algorithms we have we have one for each of nine sectors we have one for each of forced sources so individuals foundations bequest and corporations and we also have one for all fifty states plus dc okay all right cubine business the same kind of technology by the way that hedge funds use and other forecasting and analytical firm to use today different from things that were created several decades ago that were things like on econometric model perhaps so well there’s econometric data in your algorithm they’re absolutely yeah they’re having a little is but on our algorithms get better that the more the more we use them the more we’re able to find out what the strengths of the factors are and what factors are involved for example in one of our sources there is a correlation with auto parts sales now that a correlation does not necessarily mean a relationship yeah it just means that there’s a strong correlation and in that case that correlation is a very strong correlation ah we’ve also recently found that there is a strong correlation with equipment heavy equipment leasing and interesting okay correlation not cause and effect but well sometimes like you finds an effect sometimes it is but it doesn’t have to be yeah okay and there’s numbers of factors for all these different algorithms that you have for the sixty five different okay on how many years have you been doing this we’ve been doing this since two thousand ten okay all right let’s get teo to the announcement for let’s start of course with the review of twenty fifteen way had a nice increase from two thousand fourteen tio two thousand fifteen did well we did have a nice increase not as good as the one from two thousand thirteen to two thousand or two thousand fourteen to two thousand fifteen minutes we’re doing two thousand fourteen to fifteen fifteen but this was your little nervous we’ve been on non-profit radio before i’m scared to death tony is the because i told you not to be an anarchist is i don’t know it’s because it’s hot it’s hot studio today because the professor is in the room it’s micah’s off you can’t even say anything well you can but we’re not gonna hear it now and paul is listening now you just i mean we did this last year you okay take a breath take a deep breath i’m ready to go okay came from san antonio so we’ll give him a break all right eso from twenty fourteen to twenty fifteen we had a pretty nice increase did we not yes we did we had a four point six percent growth increase in total giving in the united states for a total of four hundred and seventy seven point five five billion dollars which is the largest amount ever recorded and shared will giving okay and what way just have like a minute and a half so before i go out for our first break but you know we have the hour together so no rush no rush what are a couple of the highlights from the twenty fifteen giving just named too i would i would say that summer giving was actually better than urine giving which would be a surprise to most people yes it would okay we’ll talk about that on dh what else you got thie other thing is that since the depth of the depression in two thousand nine charitable giving has grown fifty one percent through two thousand fifteen okay since the depths of the recession in no nine okay we’re gonna go out for our break and when we come back rob and i are going to continue talking about some highlights and then we’ll bring in dog white and paul schervish all for the twenty fifteen giving report and twenty sixteen forecast stay with us you’re tuned to non-profit radio tony martignetti also hosts a podcast for the chronicle of philanthropy fund-raising fundamentals is a quick ten minute burst of fund-raising insights published once a month tony’s guests are expert in crowdfunding mobile giving event fund-raising direct mail and donor cultivation really all the fund-raising issues that make you wonder am i doing this right is there a better way there is find the fund-raising fundamentals archive it tony martignetti dot com that’s marketmesuite n e t t i remember there’s a g before the end thousands of listeners have subscribed on itunes you can also learn maura the chronicle website philanthropy dot com fund-raising fundamentals the better way kayman duitz welcome back to big non-profit ideas for the other ninety five percent okay rob let’s let’s start with this summer e-giving very interesting so we’re talking ah june july august bigger than october november december actually it was it was may june and july okay andi what do you think accounts for this well as you remember i said we’re working off of economic factors and one of the biggest economic factors were working off of force some of our algorithms is the value of the stock market yes which was down in december way down in december and then secretary yellin of the fed announced a rate increase yeah hi didn’t help either high interest rates bad forgiving high interest rates bad forgiving and there they are a harbinger of inflation coming o k we should say hyre i mean a stark values go interest rates are still low quite low very low but hyre okay spell it out for us why why does the higher interest rate i mean ah likely decline and give charitable giving well you have to consider the fact that seventy three percent of all charitable giving in the united states comes from individuals and so it’s all about disposable income so if you’re paying more money i know that you’ve just bought a new place if you’re paying more money for your mortgage you have less money to give if you’re paying more money for your car payment you have less money to give it if the interest rates are hyre you’re going to be paying more and inflation comes into effect in much the same way you’re paying mohr for the items that you usually pay for and so you have less disposable income okay and when seventy three percent of the pop of the charitable of all charitable giving comes from individuals but that makes a huge difference and the higher interest rates you said suggest inflation they suggest coming in coming inflation okay there are there a predictor of they are predicting a leading what we say what’s the call that a harbinger but yeah that that that’s not the technical term we’re going is not propagated we got the fancy leading leading indicator is the leading indicator is that right yeah okay i only have a bachelor’s degree in economics but and rob is alluding to the fact that i’m buying a home in north carolina actually on the beach in north carolina that’s what he was talking about my home purchase um okay so wait so i assume way i presume from all this we saw a decline in charitable giving from november to december yes we did and that’s what that’s what hurt the fourth quarter and so may actually started it i actually started from october to november and then it really took a dip in december so did we see a decline from september to october yes we did and then october and then november was lower than october yes uh yeah i’m not sure about that look at your looking uh maybe i remember wrong look at your charts no november was all slightly higher than lightly okay but yes smaller decline i’m sorry smaller increase and then no and then december was down from november correct okay um all right so that accounts for our fourth quarter not so good not so good okay and we’ve had other fourth quarters that haven’t been so good to thousand won is an example charitable giving was looking good until we had september eleven yes and then if you were a non disaster charitable organization non disaster related charitable organization you’re giving dried up for six months and we’re gonna get to actually is right now that not that that was a recession in two thousand one but we’ve recovered very nicely since you said two thousand nine in the in the midst of the recession yes it’s been it’s been a remarkable recovery fueled mostly by the stock market and and for us as we analyze the data it’s not so much about it’s not so much about um what’s going on it’s where your money comes from how do you raise money colleges and universities raise money very differently from a very large chair nationwide charitable organization or a church that relies on lots of small gifts from lots of donors and when unemployment is high one thing that we know very very specifically is that when unemployment is high it really hurts those large organizations that rely on those small gifts than those those events that rely on small gifts and it takes as many as two years after one becomes reemployed or finds a new job for them to reach for them to resume their giving and if they have a hint that they’re going to lose their job they stopped giving even before they lose their jobs there in twenty fifteen i presume unemployment what would’ve been helpful fight would have been a positive factor absolute employment was declining absolutely so that was a great spot for twenty fifteen okay and you said were up fifty one percent i think from two thousand nine from two thousand ninety okay um let’s talk about as a percentage of the gross domestic product now gdp abila e-giving says three and a half percent of gdp for charitable giving a real real gdp okay make the distinction please inflation adjusted okay thank you um the conventional Wisdom is 2 percent a lot of people out there saying two percent including e-giving yusa and a lot of others that’s the that’s the pretty common number uh is everything else wrong and atlas e-giving is right at three and a half you’re absolutely correct what’s the distinction this’s because we’re talking billions and billion many billions of dollars difference between three and five percent and two and a half percent two percent what’s really amazing tony is if you look back forty years over e-giving use a data they always come up with the same answer always two percent two percent yeah well they they and a lot of others they’re not they’re not the sole ones that they’re not outliers but there have been a it’s two percent and it’s been that for decades i believe but there have been some major things happen that haven’t that that aren’t accounted for for example technology i mean think about think about technology twenty years ago we didn’t have we didn’t have technology to support special events we didn’t have technology to support um donordigital bases we didn’t have this kind of stuff it sophisticated you’re saying the world has changed the world has changed dramatically plus where we’ve we have added a million and a half charitable organizations so not all of them are going to make it but there are a few that are going to make it and make it really big and that makes a difference also all right so the these air factors that would lead one to conclude they would they would suggest that intuitively that e-giving might have would have increased as a percentage of real gdp but that’s but that’s our intuitive sense i mean we need data that shows it’s three and a half versus two if you’re goingto ifyou’re the out you’d hear the outlier at three and a half percent so we have to we need more than just intuition okay well if you look a tte our Numbers 4:2009 they were at two percent but because of what’s happened since the recession and taking to account how how we measure um it’s it’s near three and a half percent now of gdp you’re seeing it rise you’ve seen it right now since two thousand i thought you’ve been doing this since a two thousand eleven i thought two thousand ten two thousand ten but we’ve also back wait built back at your base that goes back for sector source and state that goes back to nineteen sixty actually had the ninety nine point five percent accuracy ok just don’t keep you honest here please well there’s a professor not prohibited but that’s the least of our concerns this is non-profit radio that should be not columbia university and boston college non-profit radio should be your leading concern um okay so you’re you’re saying that since two thousand nine you have and the stoploss e-giving large has seen increases you know we’ll get to the factors okay but you’ve seen increase from two percent two three and a half percent of riel inflation adjusted gross domestic product absolutely edible giving as a percentage thereof yes okay speaking like an encyclopedia okay what are some of the fact that technology has improved mobile giving was i don’t know if we had mobile giving in two thousand nine i can’t remember but it’s certainly has become quite a bit more prevalent since two thousand nine two thousand ten what other factors do you attribute this um we wanted to have percent growth in we’ve had crowdfunding we’ve had prize philanthropy we’ve had that was the last one crowdfunding and what prize philantech price falling through what is that mrs jordan i’m putting you in george in jail prise philanthropy what is priced philanthropy i’ve never prize philanthropy a few years ago starbucks offered a four million dollar prize to the organization that could get the most votes on dh they brought okay broke it up so that your social media to get the votes and so prize philanthropy entered the equation okay other factors is a seventy five percent increase in as a percentage of gdp from two to three and a half absolutely well look at what the stock market did since two thousand ten it’s been it’s been on a terror now this year was different but it it definitely made a difference and another thing that has made a significant difference is donor advised funds if you look well fidelity fidelity announced this week just out today how many billions of dollars went toe twenty fifteen three and a half three and half billion i think help one hundred sixty six thousand one hundred sixty six thousand grants helping one hundred thousand roughly charities or so those air ball partners but the three and a half billion it was in the chronicle today now don’t advice funds are being criticized it was just also just two weeks ago or so in the chronicle there was a commentary op ed piece that enough money is not flowing out of them and very very harsh about against dahna advice funds too much money basically the the writer said parked in donor advised funds not being distributed to charities donorsearch vise funds have added more to the charitable economy than anything else has in the last i would say in the last five years and it’s because now for the commentator you’re talking about that that that did the opposite for the chronicle he provided no data and yet we have data from donor advised funds that show that donor advised funds have provided as much as four or five times as much in in terms of percentage for grants to other charitable organizations as have private foundations four to five times as much from dahna advice fundez provoc foundation absolutely all right uh not specifically on that point but we may get to it let’s that spring in our eyes our academic team doug white is here in the studio again welcome back he is director of operations at columbia university’s master of science in fund-raising management program he also teaches board governance ethics and fund-raising his most recent book is abusing donors intent chronicling the historic lawsuit lawsuit brought against princeton university by the children of charles emory robertson we covered that book with doug on non-profit radio dahna welcome back thank you for having me tony it’s good to see you thank you it’s a pleasure i love that deep deep radio voice wonderful let zoho general before we get to the details of dahna advised funds and improvement from the recession what strikes you about the twenty fifteen report from atlas of giving a lot of things first of all i think you’re right to focus on how different it is from what we’re hearing from giving yusa and what strikes me within that is we as a philanthropic community very much pay attention to what giving us a says and not very much attention to the alice of giving and i’m thinking that should change okay uh well way actually did a face off with atlas of giving and giving us a rob rob was on that show and there were representatives from the from the board and the academic team at indiana university the senator on philanthropy there and that was maybe a year and a half or two years ago so we had them we had them meeting and i’m not sure we uh well yeah i don’t think anything conclusive came of it they both believe that they’re the most accurate doug you think that atlas is more accurate well i don’t know for a fact but what i’m hearing makes a lot of sense i’m not a statistician and i think my life is better for that but i would say that the news that i’m hearing from atlas of giving that is so different from giving yusa is a little akin to me a cz if someone had told me that the way we measure the stock market growth is wrong it’s that fundamental because we rely on those numbers for so many things and it’s very much a part of our dna and our community our charitable community but i think we need to really do some investigating and find out really who’s right here and so far rob sounds like he’s got a lot of information that i think i’m hearing that e-giving yusa does not is that true rob is that what’s going on here it is true atlas of giving well e-giving yusa created their econometric model more than forty years ago they have tweaked it a couple of times um as i said they always come up with the same answer which is giving its two percent of real gdp so you’re claiming that they’re using an algorithm that’s forty years old and the factors within that algorithm algorithm have changed dramatically over that period of time and those you are on top of that’s what we’re on top come on let’s be fair that we got to be fair to giving us a sure not sure not here to say how their algorithm has evolved over and i’m not taking process has involved i’m not taking the side i just need to get out of the question i would say this is the major difference between the atlas of giving and giving yusa e-giving yusa is will not come out with their two thousand fifteen results until late june we have to wait till june right late june it’s not monthly it’s not contemporary and it contains no forecast yeah the june is a big problem because if you’re a big problem because if you’re basing your fund-raising projections and plan on what you what what happened last year although i mean i hope you have other factors besides his besides history but you have to wait till the middle of the year to get the review of last year and then there isn’t a forecast well there’s one other fundamental problem that they have and that is that they’re using irs data that is more than two years old to come up with their number for what happened in the year there measuring now i don’t know about you but i don’t know how you can predict the news or measure the news with a new york times from two thousand fourteen on this date to say what what happened today okay all right we’re going we’re going to try to leave that there we’ll see what paul service has to say i’m not comfortable going to much further because again the atlas is not here to latto defend itself essentially let’s bring in paul schervish he’s a professor emeritus and retired as professor of sociology and as director of the center on wealth and philanthropy at boston college with john havens he co authored the very well known nineteen ninety eight report millionaires and the millennium which predicted the now well known forty one trillion dollar wealth transfer from baby boomers he’s currently writing aristotle’s legacy the moral biography of wealth and the new physics of philanthropy welcome back paul schervish hello tony hi doug i’m happy to be here thank you paul what what i’ll ask the same question i asked doug what strikes you as a as a highlight of this twenty fifteen report from atlas of giving the a larger amount of giving that is chronicled by the atlas elearning in contrast to the e-giving yusa numbers um e-giving usa has about a total giving of about three hundred ah forty billion and the atlas of course is what is it uh for seventy something for seventy seven point five five seven years well yeah that’s right but paul isn’t that the that’s the twenty fourteen e-giving use a three hundred forty billion right that’s twenty fourteen they haven’t released their twenty fifteen they won’t until june that’s correct but they’re not going to go up to four seventy five ah and so ah that contrast is dramatic now we have done some research when looking into the independent sector study we were hired by kellogg foundation and by independent sector to evaluate their survey that was the benchmark for giving from the early nineteen uh nineties through about two thousand and we actually went to various households that were interviewed by the gallup organization and what we discovered as we sat there with the um uh with the interviewer and then sometimes talk to people separately was how muchmore giving when you asked the question uh more detail people are going to report so people understand more about what you’re asking and prompt them both in the in two ways one with bae is what sector they gave to you let’s say now what did you give to education and then you would prompt them again and say what would be the amount that you gave to that to education bye ah people coming to your door by being asked by an organization by answering and responding teo mail solicitation teo email solicitations and so on and we found out and this was actually research done in co ordination with i wrote it with patrick rooney and at centre on philantech being we found out that the more props you give the hyre e-giving its and the problem is invoked survey research you don’t get a chance to ask those prompts and secondly for the independent sector we found that it was underestimating e-giving and when you ask more carefully to the people that they had interviewed so some of our own behavioral research indicates that there is probably more giving than what is being picked up by the center on philanthropy which is the better which is the giving us a report you supplement the irs data with their uh center on philanthropy panel study for people who are you uh e-giving at lower levels who don’t itemize so they do have some additional data but i think that we’re missing a lot in giving okay well good that so i think that uh the atlas uh is probably more accurate and there’s some other factors we can talk about later about how we’re even even the atlas maybe under estimating e-giving okay all right we have tio take a little pause from our conversation sam maybe you can just doug’s mike because i feel like he’s you know it’s so comfortable you okay they’re all right mike mike was drooping okay don’t have droopy mic syndrome um and we’re going so we have more on this conversation coming up first pursuant they’re cloudgood based tool is one of their card based tools velocity designed to specifically help gift officers e-giving the gift officers the analytics that they need and that you need as an organization stay on task and raise more money data like number of active proposals that air out average close rate your average time to close and the all important dollars raised it’s a simple 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tuscaloosa alabama live love live listener love tto all the live listeners those and others affiliate affections gotta send affections out to the am and fm station listeners throughout the country our affiliate stations playing the show whenever they fitted into their schedule no you’re not listening live but your station has worked us in we’re very glad to be a part of your station timetable affiliate affections to the am and fm listeners and the podcast pleasantries over ten thousand people listening wherever whatever whatever time whatever device painting a house washing dishes driving subway ing training planing podcast pleasantries to be over ten thousand podcast listeners okay let’s go back to our review and uh and forecast paul i’m going to ask you about donorsearch vise funds what and then very shortly we’re gonna get to the forecast for twenty sixteen but paul service what’s what’s your take on donor advised funds i know you read that chronicle of philanthropy op ed that was critical i mean i don’t know you did but ninety nine percent likelihood of course you did okay um what’s your sense of donor advised funds eyes too much money parked in there was that a fair assessment of donor advised funds i don’t think it is um first of all we have money parked in every university endowment we have money parked in um in every charity that has an endowment and what people are doing with donor advised funds is complimenting there private foundations are like my wife and i do we park money there a little bit each year so it accumulates we make gifts from there but over the years we’re hoping to make a larger contribution to something that is very important to us and by being able to contribute each year more than we distribute from the donor advised funds we have a pool for a larger gift and i think uh that’s once after that’s very important for the wide range of people who have dahna advice funds and not just well hold uh secondly i think what’s good for the goose is good for the gander if we’re going to talk about donorsearch advice funds and it was correct doug was correct that the donor advised funds the fidelity report indicated he gave three point one billion dollars last year and if you look at the gates foundation it gives about two billion and it adds the one point but i am doing that it has to keep a way of from warren buffett each year that’s uh a three point five billion now that’s more concentrated more focus so does a little accomplish major changes across the world but in terms of sheer amounts of money this is rivaling the the the gates foundation okay doug white let’s start too you don’t know and doug also there was there’s a suggestion that donor advised funds should have ah requirement to give maybe it’s five percent the way private foundations do now from each donor advice fundez right doug what’s your what’s your sense of dahna advice funds and what do you think about putting ah mandatory donation requirement doug well if you do that you’ll be way behind the curve because the national philanthropic trust which gathers up data on all sorts of aspects of the donor advised found world reports that the average that on average sixteen or seventeen percent per year is being given out from metoo azan average as an average you know anybody who’s showing up saying that we should have a minimum will probably say five percent because that’s what the foundation minimum is s so i’m thinking okay you can make it a five percent minimum but that’s not going to really affect the real world and going after a minimum in this particular case is really the wrong argument i think we’re really wasting a lot of time on this that chronicle editorial was something i do disagree with i think there could be some mohr education on the part of donors and charities on how to distribute and what kind of organization should be getting that kind of a money that kind of broader education is a lot more important to me than having some arbitrary payout rule that’s going to be a lot less than what’s going on in reality anyway there is some there is one more thing though about that average that can aggregate average yeah but if you were to average things and take what percentage i give away so if you did the average for each fund-raising and that’s one of the arguments that made made in congressional hearings and so on right on the other side of that argument it isn’t sixteen percent that’s the aggregate average because there’s a lot of people giving away a larger percentage of what they hold but if you did an average of each fund we would be down toward six five percent okay hold on hold on paul let’s hear from doug and i totally agree with that but i think that that that point and i’m going to buy into a one hundred percent it’s still not an argument they have a mandatory minimum okay the number one but also i don’t know e i don’t know if you meant to say this paul a moment ago but you just gave a very good reason for not distributing you’re actually putting away latto smaller chunks every year based on your ability to do that so that you can aggregate it to a point at some time in the future when you can actually do something very major with that that’s not a bad argument yes thank you i’m confused about the five percent versus sixteen or seventeen doug can you sixteen years seventeen was what the national philanthropic trust that is the aggregate outlaw outlay of donor advised funds last year okay that paul’s pointing out that if you do it fundez fun there are a lot of funds that don’t come up to that number they maybe five or six percent which means a lot of them are thirty or forty percent you know it’s going to be that way so so all i’m saying is that the argument the conversation is a total waste in my view of having a minimum that’s the bottom line for me all right let’s move on gents we’re going to move to the twenty sixteen forecast which is as robb pointed out unique for the atlas of giving rob return it to you what can we expect for twenty sixteen not as good as twenty fifteen we are now keep in mind before i say what i’m about to say that we update our forecast based on based on economic demographic and event factors as they occur each month each month so this is the initial forecast this was the initial forecast for twelve months the calendar year for two thousand sixteen and our first forecast is that charitable giving will grow but only at a rate of two point six percent two point six versus the what we have four point two percent from fourteen to fifteen did you report it four point six four point six thank you okay also a two percent difference all right so let me ask you this back-up how much did your twenty fifteen forecast in january of last year differ from what we’re now reporting completely different completely completely and what well i imagine politics was a part of that the political campaign were the presidential what else what else stock market doc mark hood was hugh couldn’t predict what was going to start with anything else those those were two main okay doesn’t mean they’re not like to say well aside from the stock market in the presidential election what else you got way we’re not we were expecting we’re expecting a stock market correction earlier in the year were expecting it to be fairly sizeable ah janet yellen was also talking about raising interest rates in the first quarter of the year and she put that off until the last quarter of the year so that that made a difference to okay but way were updating the forecast every month so it kept getting it kept getting better okay the presidential election cycle yes year how does that factor in well we’ve talked about disposable income and when you talk about disposable income you talk about individuals you might be talking about corporations but if money is being channelled to political campaigns out of disposable income from individuals and corporations there is less for charity and so one of the things i’ll tell the listeners now is that we are actually working on a study going back several decades toe look at the impact of political campaigns on charitable giving from the past and we intend to release that in june okay all right so for the time being we would expect is it is simple as you know tend to be well simple minded is it as simple as we’ll see a decline in like august september and october of twenty sixteen because of the imminence of the election in november the timing i think is going to be spread mostly throughout the year okay more even okay okay um let’s see we just got about two minutes before a break uh doug you want toe not before we’re done but for a break doug you want to weigh in on ah presidential factor president presidential election is a factor of charitable giving i totally agree i think a lot of people were talking about it disposable income it could go one place or another and this has been such a an excited presidential cycle that a lot of money has gone there when we talk about that though my my mind is more on the dark money and the way c four’s air being used wrongly in my view and so a lot of money is being siphoned through our sector just not through the five o n c three portion of our sector and that is to me a very big concern all right let’s go out for a break early sam and when we come back we’re gonna continue this conversation focusing on the twenty sixteen forecast will bring paul service back in stay with us like what you’re hearing a non-profit radio tony’s got more on youtube you’ll find clips from stand up comedy tv spots and exclusive interviews catch guests like seth gordon craig newmark the founder of craigslist marquis of eco enterprises charles best from donors choose dot org’s aria finger do something that worked and naomi levine from new york universities heimans center on philantech tony tweets to he finds the best content from the most knowledgeable interesting people in and around non-profits to share on his stream if you have valuable info he wants to re tweet you during the show you can join the conversation on twitter using hashtag non-profit radio twitter is an easy way to reach tony he’s at tony martignetti narasimhan t i g e n e t t i remember there’s a g before the end he hosts a podcast for the chronicle of philanthropy fund-raising fundamentals is a short monthly show devoted to getting over your fund-raising hartals just like non-profit radio toni talks to leading thinkers experts and cool people with great ideas as one fan said tony picks their brains and i don’t have to leave my office fund-raising fundamentals was recently dubbed the most helpful non-profit podcast you have ever heard you can also join the conversation on facebook where you can ask questions before or after the show the guests were there too get insider show alerts by email tony tells you who’s on each week and always includes link so that you can contact guest directly to sign up visit the facebook page for tony martignetti dot com i’m dana ostomel ceo of deposit a gift and you’re listening to tony martignetti non-profit radio big non-profit ideas for the other ninety five percent full service let’s bring you back in what’s your thoughts on twenty sixteen i think that one of the major factors that is missed in a lot of this is the growth in wealth that is independent of the staff markets the privately held firms and the amount of money that is generated by privately help firms and the contributions that are made by the people that owned firms when you get over one hundred million according to federal reserve data that we analyze fifty percent of the equity that is owned of the assets that are owned by of their net worth they’re owned by the upper end isn’t a privately held this and so the stock market is one important factor and we know that there are just dozens and dozens of variables that rob puts into the model but i think that we’re goingto have a sustained reliability and it’s going to be higher than the two point six percent and i um uh the hot medicine that i have your key recently came out with the projection probably teo reflect what uh doug what rob is doing uh they came out with the projection of about six percent growth in the coming year that’s a problem we’ll find the center and philanthropy and so my view is that we’re going to find sustained giving at a higher rate and it’s because a large proportion of the e-giving is accomplished by the very very very a small number of hyo households five hundred thousand six hundred thousand seventy thousand and the best depending on whether you do it either income or by their wealth that group gives between twenty and twenty eight percent of all the charitable giving that’s less about one that’s about a half a percent of the households in the nation and so i expect that that wealth is going to continue to grow now it does reflect the economy what happens to these private businesses but the amount of money that’s being accumulated at the very top is something that we have to consider as independent of the stock market paul that wealth that you’re concerned about in the privately held companies does that end up typically being inherited wealth to the next generation or what happens to all that wealth well it’s that’s the debate isn’t at the giving pledge is that they’re going to give at least fifty t percent and lifetime or to their state of their these air people in a billion and more yeah ah ah and some of them are ten twenty and thirty billion dollars they’re going to get out of that are more to charity now that’s in the offing and as a group ages we’re going to find some of that coming through the states if they don’t give it through their foundation to their foundation to a foundation and through a foundation so i think that we’re going to find this continuing to be a major factor in full after pete philantech pretty is very very very top heavy and so i expect there to be ah greater than two places percent but i give the atlas great credit last year we talked about a five percent drop at this point and it corrected it as the year went on when it got more information so i think the yearly prediction is less valuable than what we’re going to find out each month along the way more accurately okay excellent um rob let’s let’s go back to you for twenty sixteen what do you see from the the sources of giving so you’re looking at corporate foundation bequest and individual individual being by far the largest do you see that staying mostly stable from twenty fifteen to twenty sixteen well one of the disturbing fax is that corporate giving has continued to decline as a percentage of all giving oh and that that that’s one of the trans little continue in two thousand sixteen what have you been seeing over the past couple of years so what percentage is that we’re seeing in the decline well from five percent to three point three percent growth that i think significant growing without a smaller rate is that running a smaller right ok the other the other thing is that and this is the elephant in the room is church giving ah fewer and fewer americans are associating themselves with churches their congregations of any kind and if you look back two e-giving yusa reports from fifteen years ago church giving amounted to fifty percent of of all gifts now we’re down to thirty three percent yeah it’s been you and i have been doing this together for two years it’s been this is our third year sorry it’s been declining like a one percent a year did you see the did you see it declined from twenty fourteen to twenty fifteen yes you did okay is like a percent percent a year so slowly declining what paul did you want to weigh in on that but what can i say what that was just at the upper end doesn’t he have a great proportion of their e-giving two churches and the more top heavy wealth gets the greater total proportion of e-giving churches is going to be down just as a matter of statistics but also it’s absolutely correct that church participation is down and what the relative amounts that are going to education and health are skyrocketing and that’s in the atlas on dh er that’s in a report from the center for the study of education on kaplan’s group that showed that e-giving as is actually covers two years because twenty fourteen some of the reports are are in a fiscal year ending in june or an obvious so it’s really covering twenty fourteen and twenty fifteen and that’s dramatically up this year thie amount that’s going to higher education rob good that represents the upper e-giving and so they’re proportion of the total amount of giving two churches has to go down when you have not only congregational participation slipping but also so much more of the total amount of money going from high end groups they get the education and other cars and one of those other causes this is a very interest this has been a very interesting thing to watch is that in twenty fifteen the greatest growth and giving occurred in the environmental sector which is the smallest sector has been the smallest sector of giving for a very very long time so the proportion of the pie is being redistributed less to religion mohr to environment human services and education as paul pointed out those those things are it’s it’s you know we like to say we’re we’ve got our finger on the pulse of american philanthropy and nothing nothing is going to know nothing’s in stone everything can change at any time and that’s why we we produce a monthly report we would love to produce one that’s weekly but we haven’t figured out how to do that yet dug anything you want to add about twenty sixteen well i’m sitting here in fascination that paul service is thinking that rob mitchell is being conservative because we’re talking about how how far out on the limb thie alice of giving is and yet ah hearing rob described how that’s put together is very valid to me and i think we oughta have this debate again that you were describing happened two or three years ago because i’m like i think it’s important that we get to the bottom of the fish off yeah yeah and then paul’s bring in some factors here that he’s saying that maybe the alice hasn’t yet considered the behavioral aspects of it and what he says makes a lot of sense to me i will say i’m going to wrap it up gents we did invite the atlas and giving us a to another face off it was several months ago wasn’t it wasn’t for this show today but several months ago and didn’t hear back from giving us a robbers willing but giving us a way also didn’t come through you also extended an invitation to blackbaud for the blackbaud index toe do another face often we never heard about it yeah it was very generous of me all right and they didn’t respond either we have to leave it there paul service doug white and rob mitchell thank you so much gentlemen thank you turned in a great flood here thank you thank you paul next week gene takagi returns he’s our legal contributor and the principle of neo the non-profit and exempt organizations law group if you missed any part of today’s show please find it on tony martignetti dot com where in the world else would you go i’m still not sure about that for twenty sixteen taking my time to to make that decision we’re sponsored by pursuing online tools for small and midsize non-profits data driven and technology enabled pursuant dot com and by crowdster online and mobile fund-raising software for non-profits now with apple pay mobile donation feature crowdster dot com our creative producer is claire meyer off sam liebowitz is the line producer gavin doll is our am and fm outreach director shows social media is by dina russell and our music is by scott stein thank you for that scotty be with me next week for non-profit radio big non-profit ideas for the other ninety five percent go out and be great what’s not to love about non-profit radio tony gets the best guests check this out from seth godin this’s the first revolution since tv nineteen fifty and henry ford nineteen twenty it’s the revolution of our lifetime here’s a smart simple idea from craigslist founder craig newmark yeah insights or presentation or anything people don’t really need the fancy stuff they need something which is simple and fast when’s the best time to post on facebook facebook’s andrew noise nose at traffic is at an all time hyre on nine am or eight pm so that’s when you should be posting your most meaningful post here’s aria finger ceo of do something dot or ge young people are not going to be involved in social change if it’s boring and they don’t see the impact of what they’re doing so you gotta make it fun and applicable to these young people look so otherwise a fifteen and sixteen year old they have better things to do if they have xbox they have tv they have their cell phones me dar is the founder of idealised took two or three years 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Nonprofit Radio for January 30, 2015: 2014 Fundraising Report & 2015 Forecast

Big Nonprofit Ideas for the Other 95%

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Rob Mitchell, Doug White & Paul Schervish2014 Fundraising Report & 2015 Forecast

The Atlas of Giving released its fundraising review for last year and initial forecast for this year. How’d we do in 2014? Plus, you need to hear the 2015 prognosis. Atlas CEO Rob Mitchell reveals the numbers. Professors Doug White and Paul Schervish opine.

 


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Hello and welcome to tony martignetti non-profit radio. Big non-profit ideas for the other ninety five percent. I’m your aptly named host. We’ve got a new affiliate, very excited. Km you z one hundred point seven fm in salem and keizer, oregon non-profit radio for the capital, and kaiser and other parts of the mid willamette valley. Welcome km, jozy very, very glad to have you with us. I got a listener of the week, bobby de l’art, the auctioneer in tempe, arizona. You’ve got to hear this, wait. That’s all this is for the weak bobby ellard auctioneer he heard the show on auctions and did a valuable video with more ideas. He blogged the show and he sent me a really thoughtful personal video, which was not that personal is g g rated personal video, and he loves non-profit radio he’s at bobby d auctions and bobby de auctions dot com i’ll send you a video of the non-profit radio library you pick a book and i’ll send it to you. Congratulations, bobby de l’art, our listener of the week i’m glad you’re with me i’d come down with a bad case of order, correa if i rubbed up against the idea that you missed today’s show twenty fourteen fund-raising review and twenty fifteen forecast. Yeah, lots of giving released its fund-raising review for last year and initial forecast for this year. How’d we do in twenty fourteen plus, you need to hear the twenty fifteen prognosis atlas ceo rob mitchell reveals the numbers professor’s doug white and paul schervish opine on tony’s take two your best bequest prospects responsive today by fund-raising from the heart a workshop with lin twist right before valentine’s day in new york city i’m very pleased that the twenty fourteen review and twenty fifteen forecast bye atlas of giving bring rob mitchell back to the show. He’s, the ceo of the atlas he’s at philanthropy man or philantech roman, if you prefer. I liked it that way. On twitter and also at atlas of giving, you’ll find them at atlas of giving dot com rob mitchell, ceo welcome back to the show, tony it’s, great to be with you. Pleasure what let’s let’s acquaint listeners before we get to the headline let’s acquaint listeners with what this atlas is all about. Sure, the alice of giving at the alice of giving we measure the velocity and trajectory of charitable giving in the united states. We do it monthly we so each month we produce a free monthly report that shows e-giving by nine sectors health, education, religion, the arts, environment, etcetera, four sources, individuals, foundations, corporations and bequest, and then by all fifty states in the district of columbia. And what are these numbers based on what we what we did, tony, was we originally back in two thousand ten, we took forty two years worth of published e-giving data and the hypothesis wass that giving in the united states it correlates it’s, a specific economic demographic and event factors. So we hired a team of twenty five phd level analysts and statisticians toe look at this, they examined more than seventy five different factors, and they were able to come back and identify indeed what factors our have strong correlation with charitable giving in the united states. And then we were able to build our first algorithm, which corresponds with the national giving total based on those factors and the strength of the correlation and each of those things. So it would include things like unemployment, interest rates, values of the stock market, etcetera and each of those each of those things that correlates to charitable giving has a relative strength. And so those strengths were built into the algorithm, and what we were able to come up with was an algorithm when matched up with those forty two years of previously published annual giving numbers matched at a rate of over ninety eight percent. So it’s it’s a fantastic thing. Since then, we’ve developed six sixty for additional algorithms, one for each of the nine sectors one free to the four sources and one for each of fifty states plus dc. And interestingly, the factors that are involved let’s say an individual giving are different than the factors that are involved in corporate giving or foundation giving. Similarly, how organizations raised money and who they raised it from makes a difference, and so sectors are different. The factors that affect those sectors are different, so the factors that affect gifts toe education are different from the from the factors that affect gifts to churches as an example. Okay, and we’re going toe. Hopefully we’ll have some time to talk about different macro economic factors with with our two professors that will join us shortly. Um okay, let’s. Um, thank you for explaining what? What the basis of the the review for twenty fourteen and the beginning, of course. Get to the twenty fifteen forecast. Thanks for explaining what, what they’re from and how they’re derived. Um, let’s, get to the headline. What is, uh what? What is the e-giving number for twenty fourteen? Twenty. Fourteen was a great year for giving tony ah us charitable giving in our estimate top four hundred and fifty billion. In fact, the total was four hundred fifty six point seven. Three billion, and that is a nine point, three percent increase over two thousand thirteen, and this this extraordinary number was fueled by a verona by several favorable economic factors that dr e-giving yeah, okay, now we’re not we will be able to go into all the factors, but i know you have no employment and the stock market had to have been influential. The stock market has been great since the recession, and unfortunately, the value of the stock market for some sectors is very good, while in other sectors not so good. So organizations like churches, like large national charities that rely on lots of small gifts from lots of donors, those organizations air greatly impacted by high unemployment and those organizations have not fared as well since since the recession, as organizations like colleges and universities where donors aaron campaign are the organization’s air in campaign mode or they’re they’re receiving gifts that air based in stock real estate and ask kinds of e-giving those organizations, because of the stock market increases over the last few years, have done quite well. Okay, let’s, let’s look att donor advised funds to had how as a source of giving, how influential were they this year or last year? Well, donorsearch vice funds since the recession have been, i would say, the biggest story and charitable giving in the united states donorsearch advised funds have done extremely well, and that is that’s in large measure due to the ramp up in stock values. In two thousand fourteen donorsearch advised funds accounted for twenty nine point four billion and giving, and if you think about the total e-giving over four hundred fifty billion donorsearch advised funds, now this is gifts going into the funds and grants coming out of the funds to other organizations, but donorsearch advised funds accounted for six point, four percent of all giving in the u s in two thousand fourteen. Okay. Oh, but that’s that you’re counting giving into funds and also out from funds. But to give the money into the funds doesn’t necessarily make it to a charity in twenty fourteen. No. But you remember a donor advised funds like a fidelity of vanguard charitable are schwab charitable those air five? Oh, one c three organizations on their own. Okay, okay, not were we not your typical? Charity okay, let’s, go out for a break a little early, and of course, when we come back, rob and i are going to keep talking about twenty fourteen, twenty fifteen forecast, and we’ll be joined by professors doug white and paul schervish. Stay with us, you’re tuned to non-profit radio. Tony martignetti also hosts a podcast for the chronicle of philanthropy fund-raising fundamentals is a quick ten minute burst of fund-raising insights published once a month. Tony’s guests are expert in crowdfunding, mobile giving event fund-raising direct mail and donor cultivation. Really, all the fund-raising issues that make you wonder, am i doing this right? Is there a better way there is? Find the fund-raising fundamentals archive it. Tony martignetti dot com that’s marketmesuite n e t t i remember there’s, a g before the end, thousands of listeners have subscribed on itunes. You can also learn maura, the chronicle website philanthropy dot com fund-raising fundamentals the better way. Welcome back to big non-profit ideas for the other ninety five percent. I’m going to send podcast pleasantries first for everybody listens in the time shift. Very, very grateful to have you over ten thousand of you. Thank you so much. Live listener love. Oh, my goodness, we’re exploding. This is a very, very popular, very, very popular live show. San jose, california. Shakopee, minnesota. Korbel, indiana live. Listen. Love maspeth, new york land o’lakes, florida, dallas, texas campbell, california, atlanta, georgia live listener love to each of you and there’s more. We have a lot of live. Listen, love. Okay. Um, let’s. Bring in let’s. Bring on our one of our professors. Pull schervish he’s, the professor of sociology and director of the center on wealth and philanthropy at boston college he’s been selected five times to the non-profit times, power and influence top fifty. We got lots of somebody else just a couple weeks ago, henry tim’s lots of power and influence on non-profit radio with john havens. Professor of service co authored the nineteen, ninety eight report millionaires and the millennium, which predicted the now well known forty one billion trillion trillion dollar transfer of wealth and got enormous popular press. His next book will be aristotle’s legacy, the moral biography of wealth and the new physics of philanthropy. Paul service. Welcome to non-profit radio. Pompel e-giving this great intro when he’s not there. Let’s, go to doug white. He’s, also a professor. I am here. I am here. Okay. That’s. Okay. You muted your phone. What kind of inauspicious entrances? That’s a non-profit radio let’s. Do it again. Yeah, i hardly ever muted and it’s hard to mute me. You’re a professor it’s, not it’s. Understood. Welcome to non-profit radio. Thank you very much. Pleasure to have you do it. You, tony. Thank you. Hello, doug. And rob. Hello to you too, it’s. Good to talk about football now we all know each other. Hello, paul. What stood out for you in the twenty fourteen fund-raising numbers from atlas of giving hyre the question i have for rob because and what stuck out is nothing new. But is a question that he’s going to be asked him? It needs to explained because back-up our institute also tends to get hyre increases in giving, eh, dahna e-giving yusa does. But i wanted to ask robin what struck me. Rob was, um no. Why is that one hundred billion dollars larger? Not only a larger trend, but a hundred billion dollars larger. Uh then e-giving usa. And where is that money coming from? I know you asked me a question, and i’m not supposed to answer a question with a question, but rob, i i think that would be informative where’s that money coming from and why is that one hundred billion more, according to what we’re finding with the atlas? Sure, it’s a great question, paul, and the the answer, but in large measure is due to a couple of things. One is that to build the alice of giving to build the out now sixty five algorithms that we have, at least initially, we relied on forty two years of published data from e-giving yusa, and what we relied it relied on it for was to determine what factors actually correlate. Teo e-giving and once we determine those factors we no longer needed e-giving use a data, and so the the atlas numbers took on a life of their own, so to speak, right there, some things that that giving yusa, uh there, there, in my opinion, there’s, some there’s, some things that that need to be asked of giving yusa and our current giving environment that i don’t think that they’re keeping up. With one is donor advised funds, they make no estimate on donor advised funds, and we’re estimating that in two thousand fourteen dahna advised funds were over six percent of the giving total. The other thing is that e-giving yusa is relying on tax data that is more than two years old to make a determination about the year that they’re measuring. And as you well know, the year two thousand nine in terms of tax data very, very different from the year two thousand eleven. So, uh, tryingto trying to use tax data from two years ago to make a determination about about the year you’re measuring isa bit like reading a newspaper from this day two years ago and trying to determine what happened in the news today. Another thing that another weakness is that there is no and giving us a will say in fact they did on this show last year, they said they don’t use surveys dahna they use tax data. Unfortunately for churches, churches are not required to file any tax data, and if they’re not using surveys, we’re talking about a third of the charitable giving total, and i’m not sure where they’re extrapolating their number from but if it isn’t from a survey, it can’t be from tax data and that’s that is a huge difference. That’s uh, that’s a third of the charitable giving economy right there. All right? Uh, yeah, i think it is important to look at these trends and donor invites fundez they’re huge, and i think the listeners should know that they banned foundations that don’t give directly to charity. That was tony’s initial question when people give to a foundation that’s when the charitable gift this registered it’s a charitable gift when a foundation that gives it to a active on direct line charity, it doesn’t show up in these statistics again, same with donor advice once when you give to the donor advice once the atlas, other groups have nicer charitable giving count that it’s the gift they don’t double count the gift to what’s going on out in the world, but the growths and donor advice hyre and foundations our huge over the last ten years, and they project to be continued to be huge, as people, um, give while living can ah lot of foundation formation or a lot of the money that went into force that goes into from patients is actually showing up there earlier. Our research shows instead of waiting for the final estate when of bequests to charitable bequests creates or leads to the largest amount of money for a foundation. No, the debate that’s going on in your listeners are probably well aware of this is are these donorsearch vice funds and foundations housing too much money that he oughta be passing forward more quickly and in larger amounts to today’s needs. And that’s also been debated in congress. Yeah, you have. Yeah. I want to bring in. I want to bring in that one of the points that i think is very important as we see foundation e-giving e-giving two foundations e-giving two donor advised funds increasing as part of this package of growth in philanthropy. Go ahead. Yeah, i want to thank you. I know this guy’s a professor. Go ahead, but the anarchist anarchist is what he is. You have anarchist after your name? No. Just only know only phd. All right, i want to bring doug white. Is that okay? If we bring doug white and paul right now? I’m kidding with you all. Right. Okay. Okay. Thank you. Know, yeah. You should know. I’m joking with you while you have been on before, so maybe you don’t know. That’s. Good. Okay. Doug white, director of the master of science in fund-raising management program at columbia university. He’s been responsible for efforts that have raised more than eight hundred million dollars and he’s written four books. His latest is abusing donorsearch tent. The robertson family’s epic lawsuit against princeton university. We talked about that on non-profit radio last may. Dog. Right. Welcome back to the show in the studio. Thank you for having me, it’s. Good to be here. And it’s. Good to see you again. And it’s. Really good to be on with these two guests that you have. Not really a lot of fun. I agree. Cold. I’m glad you shared that. What? What is significant for you in the twenty fourteen fund-raising review? Well, i was glad to hear the explanation of what the difference is between giving yusa and the atlas. I still would like to know more about how that comes about because it is such a huge amount that and i know that everyone down dallas is going. To have to talk about this a lot, but it is such a huge amount that it almost challenges indiana university to its own methodology, and i think you were saying that earlier, rob and so i’m wondering if at some point there’s going to be some sort of ah, revelation is tow the specifics about how this is really done. For the record, i’ve always been wondering about tthe e-giving yusa numbers anyway, i think that did the d a f the dafs money going in, and also the church estimates are really suspect, and so i’m glad to see other factors being brought into that algorithm, and if it really does mean that we’re raising more than about one hundred billion dollars more per year than we’re being told otherwise. That’s good what i also note is and i think you also mentioned this earlier up, is that education e-giving is increasing, and that would be one of the areas where the stock market is helping. There was a report out this past week about the top ten universities in the united states and how they have increased their giving by about twenty percent has a portion of all of the university e-giving so what that tells me is that more and more wealthy donors are giving to to the larger universities, the wealthy universities, the wealthy organizations and my question or my concern it’s not a question for now, although i’d love to hear anybody’s response to this, but my concern is that a cz we as i look at our program and we’re educating people to go out into the non-profit world to become leaders and fund-raising and leaders and non-profits i’m wondering if we’re seeing a forgive the phrase a de democratization of fund-raising in other words, we usedto work on ah, system, where eighty percent of the people gave twenty percent of the money and vice versa, and so we would spend more and more of our time on that twenty percent of the larger donors i’m afraid that number is closer to ninety or even hyre and ten percent, in other words, what i’m worried about is that as we look for these larger and larger and larger gifts from seoul individuals, are we starting to lose the idea that philanthropy is for everyone and the e-giving report in the atlas strikes me. As being a continuation of that issue, i don’t know that that’s a bad thing in terms of the money going to the charity, i think that’s that’s a separate question what i do wonder about is how charities are reaching a sze yu would say on your show here, tony, the other ninety five percent and how do we make them feel included? And our philanthropic objectives so you’re concerned about either call it a deed, democratization or concentration on the on the flip side of e-giving yeah, i would actually prefer de democratization because i think it is a negative trend, okay, i’ll take i’ll take a bit of a stab at that, doug, i think they’re and this also gets to the question of why the big difference in giving us an estimate and ours, and that is one of the things that’s happened over the past twelve years, that’s the number of non-profits in the u s has grown fifty percent and that that is a huge number because those non-profits regardless of whether they’re you know what their expenses are, they’re raising money and that that is a that’s, a gigantic number of new non-profits entering that, the fund-raising marketplace and then technology has been super fantastic. The effectiveness and efficiency of fund-raising techniques is increasing every day, and to your point about the democratization of charitable giving. There are some great signs of things like bonem well, crowdfunding is one example prize for philanthropy is another example where, where grassroots donors are getting involved online to make significant contributions, and i don’t mean by that major gifts, but make contributions to charitable organizations at the grassroots level. Well, that’s a good point, and i just wanted to ask you, when you say the fifty percent number and no it’s for five months say three’s, did you mean all five a onesie? Threes you’re talking about public charities within that i am talking about five o one c three specifically, ok, so that would include the foundations as well as because there’s been a growth and family foundations to over the years that makes sense. And and i i’m sorry. Good look like talking about okay top heaviness pompel a terrible giving, depending on whether you do it according to federal reserve numbers, by income or by wealth is very topic just to give you an idea back-up about four hundred eighty six thousand household of a million that they have a million dollars in income each year. Bonem they make eleven percent. Hyre excuse me, twenty one percent of all the charitable giving. And when you get to five hundred thousand or more and income for a household, not for individuals, you get thirty percent of the charitable giving. So it’s, very top eddie. But let’s say ninety five percent of the giving is done by households under two thousand two hundred thousand dollars just because of that numbers to those people. So while there is this question of democratization of charitable giving, ninety five percent of terrible giving is still done by households under two hundred thousand and income. Now, if you want to go to back-up one hundred twenty five alison, then it’s, about ninety percent is given by people under one hundred twenty five thousand. So a lot of still going on it’s going on in the church’s, everybody would say that’s, where a large proportion of the church money comes from. But it’s important to understand that there is a vibrant, charitable life that is lower than that, and it is a risk. I think we have to be very careful that we allow people, and this is one of my cases were donorsearch advice, so that the upper affluent can’t put money aside over a period of time to make larger contributions and concentrate on impact for an organisation for which that will make a larger difference than simply a five hundred dollar gift for one hundred dollars. Give teacher paul, we have to. We have to take a break. We’re going to come back. We’ll continue the conversation. Of course, we’ll get to the twenty fifteen forecast. Also. Well, it, uh, doug white, think about what paul just said, and we’ll return to the doug white and paul schervish non-profit radio very shortly. Stay with us. Uh, thank you. We don’t go away for break. I keep talking. Um, fund-raising fund-raising from the heart. It is a workshop in new york city, coming up on february twelfth and thirteenth, right before valentine’s day, lin twist. She used to head fund-raising at the hunger project for twenty years. Her book is the soul of money, and now she coaches and trains fundraisers around the world and she’s doing the teaching at fund-raising from the heart. There’s quite a bit. To learn from her. You can get more information and register at t h p dot or ge slash f, f, th that’s, foxtrot, foxtrot, tango, hotel, lin twist and fund-raising from the heart. Tony steak to my video this week is your best bequest prospects. There are two very simple criteria for identifying the best potential donors for gift by will and ah, i walk you through them by candlelight it’s a candlelight video, not a candlelight vigil, candlelight video and you’ll find that at tony martignetti dot com and that is tony’s take two for friday, thirtieth of january fourth show of twenty fifteen doug, wait, you, uh you wanna respond? Teo paul’s ah, response about your your concern about de democratization? Well, i’m thinking of a more from the perspective of the alumni or the development office, and i think that paul’s, right? In fact, i am sure that the numbers bear out because i’ve seen those as well, that there is a very vibrant e-giving culture going on in the lower economic levels. In fact, the poorest people in the united states tend to give more of their income than the richest people do. S o in terms of people being associated or attracted to charity that’s not my concern so much, i think we’ll always have people who will be i’m thinking of it more from the other direction. From the development office and why we need to continue to pay attention to those smaller donors and not pay all of our attention, although certainly a lot of it is deserved for the larger donors. So, paul, i take your point, and i appreciate your putting it into perspective, i really do. And so i just clarify what i was thinking about from from the fund-raising perspective, not so much the fund, the donor result where the fund-raising result perspective, i’d like to take off my atlas hat and put on my practitioner hat as a fund-raising practitioner for more than thirty years, and doug’s point is a great one it’s about type line it’s the small gifts and small givers are very, very important to the pipeline because the twenty six year old individual who’s giving you, uh, ten or twenty five or fifty dollars, a year now could very easily be the next richard branson in a few years. And you’ve got to keep the pipeline stuffed so that the major gift opportunities and planned giving opportunities come up later. Now, of course, not everybody becomes richard branson, but assed people as people grow and mature and their economic conditions change it’s it is imperative for organizations to keep acquiring new donors at all age levels and and at all income levels as they go forward, because those are your prospects for the future. And, as i say, mostly major gifts and planned gifts or campaign gifts in the future, rob i’d like to i’d like to focus a lot more on the on the review before we get to the twenty fifteen forecast. Can you just run us through a couple of the sectors? How religion, education, environment does have some of those sectors fared in twenty fourteen? Sure, the sectors that did the best tony are those sectors that rely on people who are giving out out of assets rather than out of income or both. And so the the sectors that did particularly well in two thousand fourteen worthy human needs disaster services sector was up twelve point seven percent the environmental sector, which is still a very small sector of the e-giving pie, but that was up eleven point eight percent, and gifts to education were up eleven point five percent. On the downside, though nothing no sector lost ground in two thousand. Fourteen religion or gifts to churches is on ly growing at half the rate of gifts to things like education and the environment, and that the principal reason for that as fewer and fewer americans heir identifying themselves as church members and participating regularly in church activities didn’t know them it’s more of a demographic issue than it is a financial issue. So so religion didn’t lose any market share from twenty thirteen to twenty fourteen, we have religion losing one percent of market share twenty thirteen, twenty four and as i recall that there was also twenty twelve to twenty thirteen yes reported the same thing this time last year, okay, yeah, and, you know, the double whammy for church e-giving also was that when you wrote that in the environment that we’ve been in for the last few years with high unemployment, churches rely on lots of those small gifts from individuals, and when individuals fear becoming unemployed, they are unemployed are only recently employed reemployed they don’t give and that that is a that is a that’s been troubling part of church, giving a troubling part of church e-giving reality for the last couple of years, doug white that does that sound accurate to you? It sounds totally accurate. In fact, the trend is even more dramatic when you look at it. Over the last thirty years, there was a time when church giving constituted about fifty percent of that more than fifty. When was that back in the nineteen eighties, see that’s what is a result of the growing level of wealth and the e-giving areas that wealth holders tend to give to they don’t give the same proportion to their churches because they’re in churches with people like themselves. Once their churches built, they’re not making large contributions to their congregation. And so what duck pointed out earlier about education being more affected by the stock market and growth in the stock market is also a proxy war wealth holders making those large gifts to education bonem and i think that i would agree with that, but rob would agree with it. And, doug, i have to go back on one thing because we won our first research award on showing that the lower income groups do not give a greater proportion of their income than hyre income groups, that is a myth that was recently spread again by the false study in the chronicle of philanthropy. How america gives yes, yes, and when the federal reserve started asking about wealth and income, you’re able to show that at the low end what’s going on is that people are who are giving larger amounts to charity. Our retirees go to church and are giving from their wealth, and so when you look at percentage of income, you could have very low income people making continued substantial gifts, especially to religion. And so behind those numbers is the problem of how you have a very well income denominator and a large charitable gift, and you really don’t have a growth. Well, people slash little income people at that end, boosting that percentage so that’s important to realize that once you conceive of people’s, wealth and income and age at that lower end, the lower and does not give a greater percentage of income except for retirees, they’re well. So the study in the chronicle was faulty in the sense that it didn’t incorporate the study was a a master shame, and we got to do a program on it. They missed twenty percent of all the e-giving by the upper end by the methods that they used that we warned him against you, there was another story. Yeah, and that is another story, it’s a great one, but just one last comment on that there was a great book about twenty five or thirty years ago called wealthy and wise and for the first time, and i forget the author right now, but he did a fabulous job, yes, thank you, claude rosenberg and he did a fabulous job of explaining what you just said in a moment a moment ago and it’s something we need to take into account when we look at e-giving more than we do, we’re going to move to the twenty fifteen forecast from the atlas. Rob, why don’t you acquaint us with what you what you’re seeing for the future? Well, the first i’ll give a caveat and that is that what i’m about, what i’m about to give you as the initial twelve month forecast for twenty fifteen, i will change it always does that’s why we update each month, but our initial forecast for twenty fifteen is particularly bleak. The forecast suggests that giving could drop more than three percent in two thousand fifteen to four hundred forty two billion dollars. You know the projected decrease is largely function of unexpected correction in the stock market and we’ve seen some way have we have not yet we’re not in a bear market we haven’t experienced to correction, but we are seeing some weaknesses in the current bull market on expected increase in interest rates in the second half of twenty fifteen when interest rates go up, it puts pressure on discretionary income on the part of all donors, be the individuals, corporations, foundations, et cetera. Um, the eurozone trouble in weakening economies in germany, france and italy, particularly forty percent of all publicly traded stock company sales are to the eurozone in a weak eurozone economy is going to negatively affect the ability of u s corporations to make charitable gifts at the level they’ve been making them and then the unemployment has improved and is improving. There’s a problem of compensation compensation levels today for people who are in employed have not yet returned to pre recession levels and there are a huge number of americans who are still under employed. That’s that’s a problem as is rising competition, particularly from asia, for us companies, so i i would i would hope though this forecast this initial forecast is bleak our for our initial forecast for twenty fortin was not not so strong as what we ended up experiencing and that’s good news so we can hope for that again this year and perhaps the stock market won’t correct that’ll make a huge difference and some of these other things can be resolved and we’ll have another great e-giving year in twenty fifteen but right now it is it doesn’t look good for twenty fifteen help me explain something, rob, how is it that unemployment helped the twenty fourteen numbers because it had risen, but in twenty fifteen that increased employment is going to hurt the terms of what you think so far? I understand compensation is low, but compensation was low in twenty fourteen also, and we had under employment in twenty fourteen. So how does it cut upward in twenty fourteen and downward in twenty fifteen? The gains that were made in in employment in twenty fourteen were dramatic, and they won’t be so dramatic in twenty fifteen, and so the under compensation problem will be more will be more pronounced in twenty fifteen than it was in twenty fourteen. Let me just say about unemployment again, when people fear becoming unemployed or they’re unemployed, or they’re just recently re employed, they don’t give, typically and, uh, but when someone become what we have, what we’ve been able to observe is that when someone becomes reemployed after a period of unemployment, it takes a cz many as two years before they resume their previous levels of giving before they became unemployed. All right, we’re going to ponder that for a couple minutes. We have to do have to go away. This time. We do stop talking this time, and we’ll come back and continue the conversation. Stay with us. 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Hi, this is claire meyerhoff from the plan giving agency. If you have big dreams but a small budget, you have a home at tony martignetti non-profit radio. In south korea, we have sole and an young listening on your haserot in the netherlands, we have new coupe, we have our bill, iraq and suruga. Shima, japan, konnichiwa, live listener love going to all those countries abroad. I’m sorry barcelona, spain and also turkey, but we can’t see which city you’re you’re masked in turkey, but we know you’re with us live, listener, love, bring it back to the u s quarters villa, georgia, atlanta, georgia. Lancaster, ohio. Lynchburg, virginia live listener loved to you also mass with new york. New bern, north carolina. Bethlehem, pennsylvania. St louis, missouri. Tyler, texas. Los angeles, california, honolulu and washington, d c it’s remarkable that’s a lot of live listeners. We usually get roughly half that live, but that podcast audience never forget the podcast pleasantries because they are critical for us as well. Pleasantries to those listening at other times. Paul service how does that twenty fifteen forecast strike you? I wouldn’t have you said it was bleak? I think that’s too strong a word i might have said. A challenge, you see, because what rob is talking about is twelve percent ship from a nine point something up to a three point something down, and i think that, yes, a huge crisis, but the variables at each site on ly, if they all accumulate, might we have the twelve percent ships that he’s talking about? I would have probably, uh, sighted all of the influences, he indicated. I would have sighted some positive ones. As well. But i might have talked about a chance that instead of a nine percent growth, we might be between a two and a five percent growth, given the same data. You mean to five percent growth from twenty thirteen to twenty fourteen? Yes. Yeah. Okay. Now, if we have the perfect storm dahna and bleak might be the right word. But we only have some clouds on the horizon and some insecurities. And we’re far out at sea, given everything from terrorism. And we do know that economic information and data and growth in the economy is hurt by insecurity and and worry and that we do have all right, let’s, bring if you ever look up the wall of worry about all the things that could go wrong for the economy that is listed a good number from but i think there’s some positive influences, and i think we may be too strong until we know more outwards. Okay, uh, i might have said, uh, challenging all right, rob mitchell. Paul service doesn’t see nine point three percent growth from twenty thirteen to fourteen. He says more like two to five percent. No, no, no. I see. That i don’t see it reversing in twenty fifteen. Okay. Percent. Okay. Okay. What could you could you, briefly, paul, police be brief. What are a couple of positive factors that you see for twenty fifteen? Well, it’s, what you hear on the news something’s cut both ways. One is will we have? We already incorporated the higher interest rates into bilich into the stock market and its expectation, have we found that the oil price reductions bonem are going to encourage consumer spending and standard of living united states? Are we going to find that even though we hear continuously about bob dahna wages and so on, total compensation has gone up when you put into the mix tensions and health care as part of a total compensation? That doesn’t mean people have the money to expend, but it doesn’t mean that they are the enforced to spend it all out of their pockets. Coming from companies lousy thie obama around buy-in assurance program has helped some people with their discretionary income in solo those air some positive things that i think may be up doug, right? Twenty fifteen doug white well, i tend to agree with both people. I know that rob said something, and paul is being a little bit more optimistic, and i think either way, it’s, good news and rob is also very clear about saying, look, this is just a snapshot, and so next month we’ll have more experience and we’ll have debt, better data for the predictions, and so we were kind of nurture that through the year and given both, even if it were to be a perfect storm, and we had a drop over the next year. I don’t think that’d be the end of the world. I mean, we still have a very, very strong philanthropic society, so three percent or four percent drop over what would be this this year, which was a huge increase, i think would not be the end of the world that we should stay on top of it. We should follow this and we should analyze it and dissected, but i’m not worried. Rob and doug just made this point, you know, you have the atlas will have monthly. Is that right? Monthly revisions, teo forecast we update we update the forecasts. First of all, we provide a free report updated each months and it’s usually comes out around the twenty fifth of the month. It’s it is e-giving it’s it’s an estimate of giving for the current giving year the calendar year um and it’s a look forward as much as twelve months and the further we go along and and we’re like any forecast, the the nearer we are a month to month r r our accuracy rate is nearly one hundred percent. The further out you get, the less accurate it becomes. But all of that being said, i think both paul and make some great points. I especially like calls comment about oil prices and the effect on americans at the pump it’s like giving everyone in america and including corporations, by the way, a tax cut and sew it frees up more discretionary income, and we can only hope that that will continue. So i think i appreciate the the advice that bleep maybe too big a word also like doug’s doug’s analysis that, hey, when you’re coming off a four hundred and fifty billion dollars e-giving record giving year, and to have even a modest decline is not the end to the world, i think that’s really important. And the last thing i’d say on this subject is that the importance of keeping up with the the forecast monthly i take you back to two thousand, won two thousand one was shaping up to be are really was shaping up to be a good giving here. And then the events of nine eleven occurred. And we know now that e-giving for naan. Disaster charities basically dried up for six months, so it had a huge impact on giving for the calendar year of two thousand won and also in effect on giving in two thousand two. So it was so that those are reasons why events can make a huge difference. And why we why we like to say we’re trying to keep our finger on the pulse of american philanthropy. We have to leave it there. Rob mitchell, ceo of atlas of giving. You’ll find them at atlas of giving dot com doug white, director for the master of science in fund-raising management program at columbia university. And pull schervish professor of sociology and director of the center on wealth and philanthropy at bc boston college gentlemen. Thank you all very much. Thank you. Thank you. Pleasure. Thanks, tony. Thanks, paul. Thanks, doug it’s. Been a great pleasure. Yes, next week, a show from the archive and a rich archive it is today is our two hundred twenty fifth show, but doing this since july two thousand ten once a week. If you got a favorite, let me know what it is. Tony at tony martignetti dot com. If you missed any part of today’s show, find it at tony martignetti dot com. Fund-raising from the heart, february twelfth and thirteenth, taught by the very smart lin twist information in registration at thp dot or ge slash ff, th foxtrot foxtrot tango hotel km, jozy salem, keizer, oregon. Welcome again, our creative producer is claire meyerhoff. Sam liebowitz is our line producer shows social media is by susan chavez, susan chavez, dot com and the remote producer of tony martignetti non-profit radio is john federico of the new rules. This terrific music is by scott stein of brooklyn. You’re with me next week for non-profit radio. Big non-profit ideas for the other ninety five percent. Go out and be great. What’s not to love about non-profit radio tony gets the best guests check this out from seth godin this’s the first revolution since tv nineteen fifty and henry ford nineteen twenty it’s the revolution of our lifetime here’s a smart, simple idea from craigslist founder craig newmark yeah insights, orn presentation or anything? 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