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Rob Mitchell, Paul Schervish & Doug White: 2015 Giving Report & 2016 Forecast
We don’t need to wait until June! Atlas of Giving CEO Rob Mitchell releases the Atlas’ analysis of last year’s giving and their initial forecast for 2016. Adding commentary are professors Paul Schervish from Boston College and Doug White from Columbia University.
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hello and welcome to tony martignetti non-profit radio big non-profit ideas for the other ninety five percent i’m your aptly named host oh i’m glad you’re with me i’d be hit with deacon veins teno sinusitis if if you handed me the mere notion that you missed today’s show twenty fifteen giving report and twenty sixteen forecast we don’t need to wait until june atlas of giving ceo rob mitchell releases the atlases analysis of last year’s giving and their initial forecast for twenty sixteen adding commentary are professors paul schervish from boston college and doug white from columbia university because you can’t have a report without academic commentary it’s it’s just not done we’re sponsored by pursuing full service fund-raising data driven and technology enabled you’ll raise more money pursuing dot com also by crowdster online and mobile fund-raising software for non-profits now with apple pay mobile donation feature crowdster dot com i’m very glad that the latest data brings rob mitchell back to the show and the studio he is ceo of the atlas of giving reporting on and forecasting charitable giving in the us in his past he led national fund-raising for the american cancer society they’re at atlas of giving dot com and he’s at philanthropy man dot com which could also be read as philantech roman ah that’s on twitter not philantech roman dot com at philantech roman or if you prefer philanthropy man which is probably what he prefers or we could do at atlas of giving or adverse e-giving rob mitchell don’t start talking until i say welcome robin i’m sorry welcome back i’m not going i’m not going to tolerate anarchy on the show welcome rob mitchell welcome back it’s good to have you back thanks tony it’s always good to be back very welcome and don’t correct me no you can’t you can correct me actually i’m a little off today i’ll tell you what sam why don’t you bring down a paul and doug’s mike’s because robin are going talk for a few minutes and then ah we’re going to bring paul and dug in rob mitchell before we get to the announcement the big announcement i saw the press release today and everything tell us about atlas of giving what is this thing that you’re running atlas of giving as the only measurement of charitable giving in the united states by sector source and state that has produced monthly and we are also the only forecast of charitable giving by sector source and state produced updated monthly how do you do this report and forecast well we we had a i had a situation with a boardmember when i was at the american cancer society who was looking for a benchmark on how we’re doing and he suggested that charitable giving in the united states was tied directly to certain economic demographic and event factors and if we could identify what those were we could build a benchmark so we hired a firm of twenty five phd level statisticians and analyst and we were able to and we gave them forty two years of published giving data they were able to come back to us with an out they not only found what factors were involved in charitable giving they found out what strengths for each what the strengths of those factors were relative strength relative strengths okay this is called correlation science so they came back to us with an algorithm for national giving when matched with forty two years of past history matched at ninety nine point five percent which we call a correlation of coefficient of correlation and that was great so that was that was our first algorithm ok since then we’ve built algorithm we now have sixty five algorithms we have we have one for each of nine sectors we have one for each of forced sources so individuals foundations bequest and corporations and we also have one for all fifty states plus dc okay all right cubine business the same kind of technology by the way that hedge funds use and other forecasting and analytical firm to use today different from things that were created several decades ago that were things like on econometric model perhaps so well there’s econometric data in your algorithm they’re absolutely yeah they’re having a little is but on our algorithms get better that the more the more we use them the more we’re able to find out what the strengths of the factors are and what factors are involved for example in one of our sources there is a correlation with auto parts sales now that a correlation does not necessarily mean a relationship yeah it just means that there’s a strong correlation and in that case that correlation is a very strong correlation ah we’ve also recently found that there is a strong correlation with equipment heavy equipment leasing and interesting okay correlation not cause and effect but well sometimes like you finds an effect sometimes it is but it doesn’t have to be yeah okay and there’s numbers of factors for all these different algorithms that you have for the sixty five different okay on how many years have you been doing this we’ve been doing this since two thousand ten okay all right let’s get teo to the announcement for let’s start of course with the review of twenty fifteen way had a nice increase from two thousand fourteen tio two thousand fifteen did well we did have a nice increase not as good as the one from two thousand thirteen to two thousand or two thousand fourteen to two thousand fifteen minutes we’re doing two thousand fourteen to fifteen fifteen but this was your little nervous we’ve been on non-profit radio before i’m scared to death tony is the because i told you not to be an anarchist is i don’t know it’s because it’s hot it’s hot studio today because the professor is in the room it’s micah’s off you can’t even say anything well you can but we’re not gonna hear it now and paul is listening now you just i mean we did this last year you okay take a breath take a deep breath i’m ready to go okay came from san antonio so we’ll give him a break all right eso from twenty fourteen to twenty fifteen we had a pretty nice increase did we not yes we did we had a four point six percent growth increase in total giving in the united states for a total of four hundred and seventy seven point five five billion dollars which is the largest amount ever recorded and shared will giving okay and what way just have like a minute and a half so before i go out for our first break but you know we have the hour together so no rush no rush what are a couple of the highlights from the twenty fifteen giving just named too i would i would say that summer giving was actually better than urine giving which would be a surprise to most people yes it would okay we’ll talk about that on dh what else you got thie other thing is that since the depth of the depression in two thousand nine charitable giving has grown fifty one percent through two thousand fifteen okay since the depths of the recession in no nine okay we’re gonna go out for our break and when we come back rob and i are going to continue talking about some highlights and then we’ll bring in dog white and paul schervish all for the twenty fifteen giving report and twenty sixteen forecast stay with us you’re tuned to non-profit radio tony martignetti also hosts a podcast for the chronicle of philanthropy fund-raising fundamentals is a quick ten minute burst of fund-raising insights published once a month tony’s guests are expert in crowdfunding mobile giving event fund-raising direct mail and donor cultivation really all the fund-raising issues that make you wonder am i doing this right is there a better way there is find the fund-raising fundamentals archive it tony martignetti dot com that’s marketmesuite n e t t i remember there’s a g before the end thousands of listeners have subscribed on itunes you can also learn maura the chronicle website philanthropy dot com fund-raising fundamentals the better way kayman duitz welcome back to big non-profit ideas for the other ninety five percent okay rob let’s let’s start with this summer e-giving very interesting so we’re talking ah june july august bigger than october november december actually it was it was may june and july okay andi what do you think accounts for this well as you remember i said we’re working off of economic factors and one of the biggest economic factors were working off of force some of our algorithms is the value of the stock market yes which was down in december way down in december and then secretary yellin of the fed announced a rate increase yeah hi didn’t help either high interest rates bad forgiving high interest rates bad forgiving and there they are a harbinger of inflation coming o k we should say hyre i mean a stark values go interest rates are still low quite low very low but hyre okay spell it out for us why why does the higher interest rate i mean ah likely decline and give charitable giving well you have to consider the fact that seventy three percent of all charitable giving in the united states comes from individuals and so it’s all about disposable income so if you’re paying more money i know that you’ve just bought a new place if you’re paying more money for your mortgage you have less money to give if you’re paying more money for your car payment you have less money to give it if the interest rates are hyre you’re going to be paying more and inflation comes into effect in much the same way you’re paying mohr for the items that you usually pay for and so you have less disposable income okay and when seventy three percent of the pop of the charitable of all charitable giving comes from individuals but that makes a huge difference and the higher interest rates you said suggest inflation they suggest coming in coming inflation okay there are there a predictor of they are predicting a leading what we say what’s the call that a harbinger but yeah that that that’s not the technical term we’re going is not propagated we got the fancy leading leading indicator is the leading indicator is that right yeah okay i only have a bachelor’s degree in economics but and rob is alluding to the fact that i’m buying a home in north carolina actually on the beach in north carolina that’s what he was talking about my home purchase um okay so wait so i assume way i presume from all this we saw a decline in charitable giving from november to december yes we did and that’s what that’s what hurt the fourth quarter and so may actually started it i actually started from october to november and then it really took a dip in december so did we see a decline from september to october yes we did and then october and then november was lower than october yes uh yeah i’m not sure about that look at your looking uh maybe i remember wrong look at your charts no november was all slightly higher than lightly okay but yes smaller decline i’m sorry smaller increase and then no and then december was down from november correct okay um all right so that accounts for our fourth quarter not so good not so good okay and we’ve had other fourth quarters that haven’t been so good to thousand won is an example charitable giving was looking good until we had september eleven yes and then if you were a non disaster charitable organization non disaster related charitable organization you’re giving dried up for six months and we’re gonna get to actually is right now that not that that was a recession in two thousand one but we’ve recovered very nicely since you said two thousand nine in the in the midst of the recession yes it’s been it’s been a remarkable recovery fueled mostly by the stock market and and for us as we analyze the data it’s not so much about it’s not so much about um what’s going on it’s where your money comes from how do you raise money colleges and universities raise money very differently from a very large chair nationwide charitable organization or a church that relies on lots of small gifts from lots of donors and when unemployment is high one thing that we know very very specifically is that when unemployment is high it really hurts those large organizations that rely on those small gifts than those those events that rely on small gifts and it takes as many as two years after one becomes reemployed or finds a new job for them to reach for them to resume their giving and if they have a hint that they’re going to lose their job they stopped giving even before they lose their jobs there in twenty fifteen i presume unemployment what would’ve been helpful fight would have been a positive factor absolute employment was declining absolutely so that was a great spot for twenty fifteen okay and you said were up fifty one percent i think from two thousand nine from two thousand ninety okay um let’s talk about as a percentage of the gross domestic product now gdp abila e-giving says three and a half percent of gdp for charitable giving a real real gdp okay make the distinction please inflation adjusted okay thank you um the conventional Wisdom is 2 percent a lot of people out there saying two percent including e-giving yusa and a lot of others that’s the that’s the pretty common number uh is everything else wrong and atlas e-giving is right at three and a half you’re absolutely correct what’s the distinction this’s because we’re talking billions and billion many billions of dollars difference between three and five percent and two and a half percent two percent what’s really amazing tony is if you look back forty years over e-giving use a data they always come up with the same answer always two percent two percent yeah well they they and a lot of others they’re not they’re not the sole ones that they’re not outliers but there have been a it’s two percent and it’s been that for decades i believe but there have been some major things happen that haven’t that that aren’t accounted for for example technology i mean think about think about technology twenty years ago we didn’t have we didn’t have technology to support special events we didn’t have technology to support um donordigital bases we didn’t have this kind of stuff it sophisticated you’re saying the world has changed the world has changed dramatically plus where we’ve we have added a million and a half charitable organizations so not all of them are going to make it but there are a few that are going to make it and make it really big and that makes a difference also all right so the these air factors that would lead one to conclude they would they would suggest that intuitively that e-giving might have would have increased as a percentage of real gdp but that’s but that’s our intuitive sense i mean we need data that shows it’s three and a half versus two if you’re goingto ifyou’re the out you’d hear the outlier at three and a half percent so we have to we need more than just intuition okay well if you look a tte our Numbers 4:2009 they were at two percent but because of what’s happened since the recession and taking to account how how we measure um it’s it’s near three and a half percent now of gdp you’re seeing it rise you’ve seen it right now since two thousand i thought you’ve been doing this since a two thousand eleven i thought two thousand ten two thousand ten but we’ve also back wait built back at your base that goes back for sector source and state that goes back to nineteen sixty actually had the ninety nine point five percent accuracy ok just don’t keep you honest here please well there’s a professor not prohibited but that’s the least of our concerns this is non-profit radio that should be not columbia university and boston college non-profit radio should be your leading concern um okay so you’re you’re saying that since two thousand nine you have and the stoploss e-giving large has seen increases you know we’ll get to the factors okay but you’ve seen increase from two percent two three and a half percent of riel inflation adjusted gross domestic product absolutely edible giving as a percentage thereof yes okay speaking like an encyclopedia okay what are some of the fact that technology has improved mobile giving was i don’t know if we had mobile giving in two thousand nine i can’t remember but it’s certainly has become quite a bit more prevalent since two thousand nine two thousand ten what other factors do you attribute this um we wanted to have percent growth in we’ve had crowdfunding we’ve had prize philanthropy we’ve had that was the last one crowdfunding and what prize philantech price falling through what is that mrs jordan i’m putting you in george in jail prise philanthropy what is priced philanthropy i’ve never prize philanthropy a few years ago starbucks offered a four million dollar prize to the organization that could get the most votes on dh they brought okay broke it up so that your social media to get the votes and so prize philanthropy entered the equation okay other factors is a seventy five percent increase in as a percentage of gdp from two to three and a half absolutely well look at what the stock market did since two thousand ten it’s been it’s been on a terror now this year was different but it it definitely made a difference and another thing that has made a significant difference is donor advised funds if you look well fidelity fidelity announced this week just out today how many billions of dollars went toe twenty fifteen three and a half three and half billion i think help one hundred sixty six thousand one hundred sixty six thousand grants helping one hundred thousand roughly charities or so those air ball partners but the three and a half billion it was in the chronicle today now don’t advice funds are being criticized it was just also just two weeks ago or so in the chronicle there was a commentary op ed piece that enough money is not flowing out of them and very very harsh about against dahna advice funds too much money basically the the writer said parked in donor advised funds not being distributed to charities donorsearch vise funds have added more to the charitable economy than anything else has in the last i would say in the last five years and it’s because now for the commentator you’re talking about that that that did the opposite for the chronicle he provided no data and yet we have data from donor advised funds that show that donor advised funds have provided as much as four or five times as much in in terms of percentage for grants to other charitable organizations as have private foundations four to five times as much from dahna advice fundez provoc foundation absolutely all right uh not specifically on that point but we may get to it let’s that spring in our eyes our academic team doug white is here in the studio again welcome back he is director of operations at columbia university’s master of science in fund-raising management program he also teaches board governance ethics and fund-raising his most recent book is abusing donors intent chronicling the historic lawsuit lawsuit brought against princeton university by the children of charles emory robertson we covered that book with doug on non-profit radio dahna welcome back thank you for having me tony it’s good to see you thank you it’s a pleasure i love that deep deep radio voice wonderful let zoho general before we get to the details of dahna advised funds and improvement from the recession what strikes you about the twenty fifteen report from atlas of giving a lot of things first of all i think you’re right to focus on how different it is from what we’re hearing from giving yusa and what strikes me within that is we as a philanthropic community very much pay attention to what giving us a says and not very much attention to the alice of giving and i’m thinking that should change okay uh well way actually did a face off with atlas of giving and giving us a rob rob was on that show and there were representatives from the from the board and the academic team at indiana university the senator on philanthropy there and that was maybe a year and a half or two years ago so we had them we had them meeting and i’m not sure we uh well yeah i don’t think anything conclusive came of it they both believe that they’re the most accurate doug you think that atlas is more accurate well i don’t know for a fact but what i’m hearing makes a lot of sense i’m not a statistician and i think my life is better for that but i would say that the news that i’m hearing from atlas of giving that is so different from giving yusa is a little akin to me a cz if someone had told me that the way we measure the stock market growth is wrong it’s that fundamental because we rely on those numbers for so many things and it’s very much a part of our dna and our community our charitable community but i think we need to really do some investigating and find out really who’s right here and so far rob sounds like he’s got a lot of information that i think i’m hearing that e-giving yusa does not is that true rob is that what’s going on here it is true atlas of giving well e-giving yusa created their econometric model more than forty years ago they have tweaked it a couple of times um as i said they always come up with the same answer which is giving its two percent of real gdp so you’re claiming that they’re using an algorithm that’s forty years old and the factors within that algorithm algorithm have changed dramatically over that period of time and those you are on top of that’s what we’re on top come on let’s be fair that we got to be fair to giving us a sure not sure not here to say how their algorithm has evolved over and i’m not taking process has involved i’m not taking the side i just need to get out of the question i would say this is the major difference between the atlas of giving and giving yusa e-giving yusa is will not come out with their two thousand fifteen results until late june we have to wait till june right late june it’s not monthly it’s not contemporary and it contains no forecast yeah the june is a big problem because if you’re a big problem because if you’re basing your fund-raising projections and plan on what you what what happened last year although i mean i hope you have other factors besides his besides history but you have to wait till the middle of the year to get the review of last year and then there isn’t a forecast well there’s one other fundamental problem that they have and that is that they’re using irs data that is more than two years old to come up with their number for what happened in the year there measuring now i don’t know about you but i don’t know how you can predict the news or measure the news with a new york times from two thousand fourteen on this date to say what what happened today okay all right we’re going we’re going to try to leave that there we’ll see what paul service has to say i’m not comfortable going to much further because again the atlas is not here to latto defend itself essentially let’s bring in paul schervish he’s a professor emeritus and retired as professor of sociology and as director of the center on wealth and philanthropy at boston college with john havens he co authored the very well known nineteen ninety eight report millionaires and the millennium which predicted the now well known forty one trillion dollar wealth transfer from baby boomers he’s currently writing aristotle’s legacy the moral biography of wealth and the new physics of philanthropy welcome back paul schervish hello tony hi doug i’m happy to be here thank you paul what what i’ll ask the same question i asked doug what strikes you as a as a highlight of this twenty fifteen report from atlas of giving the a larger amount of giving that is chronicled by the atlas elearning in contrast to the e-giving yusa numbers um e-giving usa has about a total giving of about three hundred ah forty billion and the atlas of course is what is it uh for seventy something for seventy seven point five five seven years well yeah that’s right but paul isn’t that the that’s the twenty fourteen e-giving use a three hundred forty billion right that’s twenty fourteen they haven’t released their twenty fifteen they won’t until june that’s correct but they’re not going to go up to four seventy five ah and so ah that contrast is dramatic now we have done some research when looking into the independent sector study we were hired by kellogg foundation and by independent sector to evaluate their survey that was the benchmark for giving from the early nineteen uh nineties through about two thousand and we actually went to various households that were interviewed by the gallup organization and what we discovered as we sat there with the um uh with the interviewer and then sometimes talk to people separately was how muchmore giving when you asked the question uh more detail people are going to report so people understand more about what you’re asking and prompt them both in the in two ways one with bae is what sector they gave to you let’s say now what did you give to education and then you would prompt them again and say what would be the amount that you gave to that to education bye ah people coming to your door by being asked by an organization by answering and responding teo mail solicitation teo email solicitations and so on and we found out and this was actually research done in co ordination with i wrote it with patrick rooney and at centre on philantech being we found out that the more props you give the hyre e-giving its and the problem is invoked survey research you don’t get a chance to ask those prompts and secondly for the independent sector we found that it was underestimating e-giving and when you ask more carefully to the people that they had interviewed so some of our own behavioral research indicates that there is probably more giving than what is being picked up by the center on philanthropy which is the better which is the giving us a report you supplement the irs data with their uh center on philanthropy panel study for people who are you uh e-giving at lower levels who don’t itemize so they do have some additional data but i think that we’re missing a lot in giving okay well good that so i think that uh the atlas uh is probably more accurate and there’s some other factors we can talk about later about how we’re even even the atlas maybe under estimating e-giving okay all right we have tio take a little pause from our conversation sam maybe you can just doug’s mike because i feel like he’s you know it’s so comfortable you okay they’re all right mike mike was drooping okay don’t have droopy mic syndrome um and we’re going so we have more on this conversation coming up first pursuant they’re cloudgood based tool is one of their card based tools velocity designed to specifically help gift officers e-giving the gift officers the analytics that they need and that you need as an organization stay on task and raise more money data like number of active proposals that air out average close rate your average time to close and the all important dollars raised it’s a simple problem solution statement you need to raise more money velocity helps you it’s one of the pursuing tools at pursuant dot com i also have to give a shout out to crowdster they have their new one of a kind apple pay mobile donation feature which helps you increase your mobile donations crowdster gives you crowdfunding campaign sites that have back office simplicity but for outward for donors outward facing elegance so your donors are seeing a very pretty and very simple site and you’re back office also has a very simple site to work with and they are at crowdster dot com you could use crowdster and velocity together crowdster for your outward facing campaign and velocity for your analytics and and back end time now for live listener love we’ve got live listeners they’re all over the world it’s unbelievable seoul south korea on your haserot tokyo japan ni hao and also nigata japan ni hao coming up coming into the u s st louis missouri new bern north carolina stamford connecticut tuscaloosa alabama live love live listener love tto all the live listeners those and others affiliate affections gotta send affections out to the am and fm station listeners throughout the country our affiliate stations playing the show whenever they fitted into their schedule no you’re not listening live but your station has worked us in we’re very glad to be a part of your station timetable affiliate affections to the am and fm listeners and the podcast pleasantries over ten thousand people listening wherever whatever whatever time whatever device painting a house washing dishes driving subway ing training planing podcast pleasantries to be over ten thousand podcast listeners okay let’s go back to our review and uh and forecast paul i’m going to ask you about donorsearch vise funds what and then very shortly we’re gonna get to the forecast for twenty sixteen but paul service what’s what’s your take on donor advised funds i know you read that chronicle of philanthropy op ed that was critical i mean i don’t know you did but ninety nine percent likelihood of course you did okay um what’s your sense of donor advised funds eyes too much money parked in there was that a fair assessment of donor advised funds i don’t think it is um first of all we have money parked in every university endowment we have money parked in um in every charity that has an endowment and what people are doing with donor advised funds is complimenting there private foundations are like my wife and i do we park money there a little bit each year so it accumulates we make gifts from there but over the years we’re hoping to make a larger contribution to something that is very important to us and by being able to contribute each year more than we distribute from the donor advised funds we have a pool for a larger gift and i think uh that’s once after that’s very important for the wide range of people who have dahna advice funds and not just well hold uh secondly i think what’s good for the goose is good for the gander if we’re going to talk about donorsearch advice funds and it was correct doug was correct that the donor advised funds the fidelity report indicated he gave three point one billion dollars last year and if you look at the gates foundation it gives about two billion and it adds the one point but i am doing that it has to keep a way of from warren buffett each year that’s uh a three point five billion now that’s more concentrated more focus so does a little accomplish major changes across the world but in terms of sheer amounts of money this is rivaling the the the gates foundation okay doug white let’s start too you don’t know and doug also there was there’s a suggestion that donor advised funds should have ah requirement to give maybe it’s five percent the way private foundations do now from each donor advice fundez right doug what’s your what’s your sense of dahna advice funds and what do you think about putting ah mandatory donation requirement doug well if you do that you’ll be way behind the curve because the national philanthropic trust which gathers up data on all sorts of aspects of the donor advised found world reports that the average that on average sixteen or seventeen percent per year is being given out from metoo azan average as an average you know anybody who’s showing up saying that we should have a minimum will probably say five percent because that’s what the foundation minimum is s so i’m thinking okay you can make it a five percent minimum but that’s not going to really affect the real world and going after a minimum in this particular case is really the wrong argument i think we’re really wasting a lot of time on this that chronicle editorial was something i do disagree with i think there could be some mohr education on the part of donors and charities on how to distribute and what kind of organization should be getting that kind of a money that kind of broader education is a lot more important to me than having some arbitrary payout rule that’s going to be a lot less than what’s going on in reality anyway there is some there is one more thing though about that average that can aggregate average yeah but if you were to average things and take what percentage i give away so if you did the average for each fund-raising and that’s one of the arguments that made made in congressional hearings and so on right on the other side of that argument it isn’t sixteen percent that’s the aggregate average because there’s a lot of people giving away a larger percentage of what they hold but if you did an average of each fund we would be down toward six five percent okay hold on hold on paul let’s hear from doug and i totally agree with that but i think that that that point and i’m going to buy into a one hundred percent it’s still not an argument they have a mandatory minimum okay the number one but also i don’t know e i don’t know if you meant to say this paul a moment ago but you just gave a very good reason for not distributing you’re actually putting away latto smaller chunks every year based on your ability to do that so that you can aggregate it to a point at some time in the future when you can actually do something very major with that that’s not a bad argument yes thank you i’m confused about the five percent versus sixteen or seventeen doug can you sixteen years seventeen was what the national philanthropic trust that is the aggregate outlaw outlay of donor advised funds last year okay that paul’s pointing out that if you do it fundez fun there are a lot of funds that don’t come up to that number they maybe five or six percent which means a lot of them are thirty or forty percent you know it’s going to be that way so so all i’m saying is that the argument the conversation is a total waste in my view of having a minimum that’s the bottom line for me all right let’s move on gents we’re going to move to the twenty sixteen forecast which is as robb pointed out unique for the atlas of giving rob return it to you what can we expect for twenty sixteen not as good as twenty fifteen we are now keep in mind before i say what i’m about to say that we update our forecast based on based on economic demographic and event factors as they occur each month each month so this is the initial forecast this was the initial forecast for twelve months the calendar year for two thousand sixteen and our first forecast is that charitable giving will grow but only at a rate of two point six percent two point six versus the what we have four point two percent from fourteen to fifteen did you report it four point six four point six thank you okay also a two percent difference all right so let me ask you this back-up how much did your twenty fifteen forecast in january of last year differ from what we’re now reporting completely different completely completely and what well i imagine politics was a part of that the political campaign were the presidential what else what else stock market doc mark hood was hugh couldn’t predict what was going to start with anything else those those were two main okay doesn’t mean they’re not like to say well aside from the stock market in the presidential election what else you got way we’re not we were expecting we’re expecting a stock market correction earlier in the year were expecting it to be fairly sizeable ah janet yellen was also talking about raising interest rates in the first quarter of the year and she put that off until the last quarter of the year so that that made a difference to okay but way were updating the forecast every month so it kept getting it kept getting better okay the presidential election cycle yes year how does that factor in well we’ve talked about disposable income and when you talk about disposable income you talk about individuals you might be talking about corporations but if money is being channelled to political campaigns out of disposable income from individuals and corporations there is less for charity and so one of the things i’ll tell the listeners now is that we are actually working on a study going back several decades toe look at the impact of political campaigns on charitable giving from the past and we intend to release that in june okay all right so for the time being we would expect is it is simple as you know tend to be well simple minded is it as simple as we’ll see a decline in like august september and october of twenty sixteen because of the imminence of the election in november the timing i think is going to be spread mostly throughout the year okay more even okay okay um let’s see we just got about two minutes before a break uh doug you want toe not before we’re done but for a break doug you want to weigh in on ah presidential factor president presidential election is a factor of charitable giving i totally agree i think a lot of people were talking about it disposable income it could go one place or another and this has been such a an excited presidential cycle that a lot of money has gone there when we talk about that though my my mind is more on the dark money and the way c four’s air being used wrongly in my view and so a lot of money is being siphoned through our sector just not through the five o n c three portion of our sector and that is to me a very big concern all right let’s go out for a break early sam and when we come back we’re gonna continue this conversation focusing on the twenty sixteen forecast will bring paul service back in stay with us like what you’re hearing a non-profit radio tony’s got more on youtube you’ll find clips from stand up comedy tv spots and exclusive interviews catch guests like seth gordon craig newmark the founder of craigslist marquis of eco enterprises charles best from donors choose dot org’s aria finger do something that worked and naomi levine from new york universities heimans center on philantech tony tweets to he finds the best content from the most knowledgeable interesting people in and around 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visit the facebook page for tony martignetti dot com i’m dana ostomel ceo of deposit a gift and you’re listening to tony martignetti non-profit radio big non-profit ideas for the other ninety five percent full service let’s bring you back in what’s your thoughts on twenty sixteen i think that one of the major factors that is missed in a lot of this is the growth in wealth that is independent of the staff markets the privately held firms and the amount of money that is generated by privately help firms and the contributions that are made by the people that owned firms when you get over one hundred million according to federal reserve data that we analyze fifty percent of the equity that is owned of the assets that are owned by of their net worth they’re owned by the upper end isn’t a privately held this and so the stock market is one important factor and we know that there are just dozens and dozens of variables that rob puts into the model but i think that we’re goingto have a sustained reliability and it’s going to be higher than the two point six percent and i um uh the hot medicine that i have your key recently came out with the projection probably teo reflect what uh doug what rob is doing uh they came out with the projection of about six percent growth in the coming year that’s a problem we’ll find the center and philanthropy and so my view is that we’re going to find sustained giving at a higher rate and it’s because a large proportion of the e-giving is accomplished by the very very very a small number of hyo households five hundred thousand six hundred thousand seventy thousand and the best depending on whether you do it either income or by their wealth that group gives between twenty and twenty eight percent of all the charitable giving that’s less about one that’s about a half a percent of the households in the nation and so i expect that that wealth is going to continue to grow now it does reflect the economy what happens to these private businesses but the amount of money that’s being accumulated at the very top is something that we have to consider as independent of the stock market paul that wealth that you’re concerned about in the privately held companies does that end up typically being inherited wealth to the next generation or what happens to all that wealth well it’s that’s the debate isn’t at the giving pledge is that they’re going to give at least fifty t percent and lifetime or to their state of their these air people in a billion and more yeah ah ah and some of them are ten twenty and thirty billion dollars they’re going to get out of that are more to charity now that’s in the offing and as a group ages we’re going to find some of that coming through the states if they don’t give it through their foundation to their foundation to a foundation and through a foundation so i think that we’re going to find this continuing to be a major factor in full after pete philantech pretty is very very very top heavy and so i expect there to be ah greater than two places percent but i give the atlas great credit last year we talked about a five percent drop at this point and it corrected it as the year went on when it got more information so i think the yearly prediction is less valuable than what we’re going to find out each month along the way more accurately okay excellent um rob let’s let’s go back to you for twenty sixteen what do you see from the the sources of giving so you’re looking at corporate foundation bequest and individual individual being by far the largest do you see that staying mostly stable from twenty fifteen to twenty sixteen well one of the disturbing fax is that corporate giving has continued to decline as a percentage of all giving oh and that that that’s one of the trans little continue in two thousand sixteen what have you been seeing over the past couple of years so what percentage is that we’re seeing in the decline well from five percent to three point three percent growth that i think significant growing without a smaller rate is that running a smaller right ok the other the other thing is that and this is the elephant in the room is church giving ah fewer and fewer americans are associating themselves with churches their congregations of any kind and if you look back two e-giving yusa reports from fifteen years ago church giving amounted to fifty percent of of all gifts now we’re down to thirty three percent yeah it’s been you and i have been doing this together for two years it’s been this is our third year sorry it’s been declining like a one percent a year did you see the did you see it declined from twenty fourteen to twenty fifteen yes you did okay is like a percent percent a year so slowly declining what paul did you want to weigh in on that but what can i say what that was just at the upper end doesn’t he have a great proportion of their e-giving two churches and the more top heavy wealth gets the greater total proportion of e-giving churches is going to be down just as a matter of statistics but also it’s absolutely correct that church participation is down and what the relative amounts that are going to education and health are skyrocketing and that’s in the atlas on dh er that’s in a report from the center for the study of education on kaplan’s group that showed that e-giving as is actually covers two years because twenty fourteen some of the reports are are in a fiscal year ending in june or an obvious so it’s really covering twenty fourteen and twenty fifteen and that’s dramatically up this year thie amount that’s going to higher education rob good that represents the upper e-giving and so they’re proportion of the total amount of giving two churches has to go down when you have not only congregational participation slipping but also so much more of the total amount of money going from high end groups they get the education and other cars and one of those other causes this is a very interest this has been a very interesting thing to watch is that in twenty fifteen the greatest growth and giving occurred in the environmental sector which is the smallest sector has been the smallest sector of giving for a very very long time so the proportion of the pie is being redistributed less to religion mohr to environment human services and education as paul pointed out those those things are it’s it’s you know we like to say we’re we’ve got our finger on the pulse of american philanthropy and nothing nothing is going to know nothing’s in stone everything can change at any time and that’s why we we produce a monthly report we would love to produce one that’s weekly but we haven’t figured out how to do that yet dug anything you want to add about twenty sixteen well i’m sitting here in fascination that paul service is thinking that rob mitchell is being conservative because we’re talking about how how far out on the limb thie alice of giving is and yet ah hearing rob described how that’s put together is very valid to me and i think we oughta have this debate again that you were describing happened two or three years ago because i’m like i think it’s important that we get to the bottom of the fish off yeah yeah and then paul’s bring in some factors here that he’s saying that maybe the alice hasn’t yet considered the behavioral aspects of it and what he says makes a lot of sense to me i will say i’m going to wrap it up gents we did invite the atlas and giving us a to another face off it was several months ago wasn’t it wasn’t for this show today but several months ago and didn’t hear back from giving us a robbers willing but giving us a way also didn’t come through you also extended an invitation to blackbaud for the blackbaud index toe do another face often we never heard about it yeah it was very generous of me all right and they didn’t respond either we have to leave it there paul service doug white and rob mitchell thank you so much gentlemen thank you turned in a great flood here 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