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Rob Mitchell, Doug White & Paul Schervish: 2014 Fundraising Report & 2015 Forecast
The Atlas of Giving released its fundraising review for last year and initial forecast for this year. How’d we do in 2014? Plus, you need to hear the 2015 prognosis. Atlas CEO Rob Mitchell reveals the numbers. Professors Doug White and Paul Schervish opine.
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Hello and welcome to tony martignetti non-profit radio. Big non-profit ideas for the other ninety five percent. I’m your aptly named host. We’ve got a new affiliate, very excited. Km you z one hundred point seven fm in salem and keizer, oregon non-profit radio for the capital, and kaiser and other parts of the mid willamette valley. Welcome km, jozy very, very glad to have you with us. I got a listener of the week, bobby de l’art, the auctioneer in tempe, arizona. You’ve got to hear this, wait. That’s all this is for the weak bobby ellard auctioneer he heard the show on auctions and did a valuable video with more ideas. He blogged the show and he sent me a really thoughtful personal video, which was not that personal is g g rated personal video, and he loves non-profit radio he’s at bobby d auctions and bobby de auctions dot com i’ll send you a video of the non-profit radio library you pick a book and i’ll send it to you. Congratulations, bobby de l’art, our listener of the week i’m glad you’re with me i’d come down with a bad case of order, correa if i rubbed up against the idea that you missed today’s show twenty fourteen fund-raising review and twenty fifteen forecast. Yeah, lots of giving released its fund-raising review for last year and initial forecast for this year. How’d we do in twenty fourteen plus, you need to hear the twenty fifteen prognosis atlas ceo rob mitchell reveals the numbers professor’s doug white and paul schervish opine on tony’s take two your best bequest prospects responsive today by fund-raising from the heart a workshop with lin twist right before valentine’s day in new york city i’m very pleased that the twenty fourteen review and twenty fifteen forecast bye atlas of giving bring rob mitchell back to the show. He’s, the ceo of the atlas he’s at philanthropy man or philantech roman, if you prefer. I liked it that way. On twitter and also at atlas of giving, you’ll find them at atlas of giving dot com rob mitchell, ceo welcome back to the show, tony it’s, great to be with you. Pleasure what let’s let’s acquaint listeners before we get to the headline let’s acquaint listeners with what this atlas is all about. Sure, the alice of giving at the alice of giving we measure the velocity and trajectory of charitable giving in the united states. We do it monthly we so each month we produce a free monthly report that shows e-giving by nine sectors health, education, religion, the arts, environment, etcetera, four sources, individuals, foundations, corporations and bequest, and then by all fifty states in the district of columbia. And what are these numbers based on what we what we did, tony, was we originally back in two thousand ten, we took forty two years worth of published e-giving data and the hypothesis wass that giving in the united states it correlates it’s, a specific economic demographic and event factors. So we hired a team of twenty five phd level analysts and statisticians toe look at this, they examined more than seventy five different factors, and they were able to come back and identify indeed what factors our have strong correlation with charitable giving in the united states. And then we were able to build our first algorithm, which corresponds with the national giving total based on those factors and the strength of the correlation and each of those things. So it would include things like unemployment, interest rates, values of the stock market, etcetera and each of those each of those things that correlates to charitable giving has a relative strength. And so those strengths were built into the algorithm, and what we were able to come up with was an algorithm when matched up with those forty two years of previously published annual giving numbers matched at a rate of over ninety eight percent. So it’s it’s a fantastic thing. Since then, we’ve developed six sixty for additional algorithms, one for each of the nine sectors one free to the four sources and one for each of fifty states plus dc. And interestingly, the factors that are involved let’s say an individual giving are different than the factors that are involved in corporate giving or foundation giving. Similarly, how organizations raised money and who they raised it from makes a difference, and so sectors are different. The factors that affect those sectors are different, so the factors that affect gifts toe education are different from the from the factors that affect gifts to churches as an example. Okay, and we’re going toe. Hopefully we’ll have some time to talk about different macro economic factors with with our two professors that will join us shortly. Um okay, let’s. Um, thank you for explaining what? What the basis of the the review for twenty fourteen and the beginning, of course. Get to the twenty fifteen forecast. Thanks for explaining what, what they’re from and how they’re derived. Um, let’s, get to the headline. What is, uh what? What is the e-giving number for twenty fourteen? Twenty. Fourteen was a great year for giving tony ah us charitable giving in our estimate top four hundred and fifty billion. In fact, the total was four hundred fifty six point seven. Three billion, and that is a nine point, three percent increase over two thousand thirteen, and this this extraordinary number was fueled by a verona by several favorable economic factors that dr e-giving yeah, okay, now we’re not we will be able to go into all the factors, but i know you have no employment and the stock market had to have been influential. The stock market has been great since the recession, and unfortunately, the value of the stock market for some sectors is very good, while in other sectors not so good. So organizations like churches, like large national charities that rely on lots of small gifts from lots of donors, those organizations air greatly impacted by high unemployment and those organizations have not fared as well since since the recession, as organizations like colleges and universities where donors aaron campaign are the organization’s air in campaign mode or they’re they’re receiving gifts that air based in stock real estate and ask kinds of e-giving those organizations, because of the stock market increases over the last few years, have done quite well. Okay, let’s, let’s look att donor advised funds to had how as a source of giving, how influential were they this year or last year? Well, donorsearch vice funds since the recession have been, i would say, the biggest story and charitable giving in the united states donorsearch advised funds have done extremely well, and that is that’s in large measure due to the ramp up in stock values. In two thousand fourteen donorsearch advised funds accounted for twenty nine point four billion and giving, and if you think about the total e-giving over four hundred fifty billion donorsearch advised funds, now this is gifts going into the funds and grants coming out of the funds to other organizations, but donorsearch advised funds accounted for six point, four percent of all giving in the u s in two thousand fourteen. Okay. Oh, but that’s that you’re counting giving into funds and also out from funds. But to give the money into the funds doesn’t necessarily make it to a charity in twenty fourteen. No. But you remember a donor advised funds like a fidelity of vanguard charitable are schwab charitable those air five? Oh, one c three organizations on their own. Okay, okay, not were we not your typical? Charity okay, let’s, go out for a break a little early, and of course, when we come back, rob and i are going to keep talking about twenty fourteen, twenty fifteen forecast, and we’ll be joined by professors doug white and paul schervish. Stay with us, you’re tuned to non-profit radio. Tony martignetti also hosts a podcast for the chronicle of philanthropy fund-raising fundamentals is a quick ten minute burst of fund-raising insights published once a month. Tony’s guests are expert in crowdfunding, mobile giving event fund-raising direct mail and donor cultivation. Really, all the fund-raising issues that make you wonder, am i doing this right? Is there a better way there is? Find the fund-raising fundamentals archive it. Tony martignetti dot com that’s marketmesuite n e t t i remember there’s, a g before the end, thousands of listeners have subscribed on itunes. You can also learn maura, the chronicle website philanthropy dot com fund-raising fundamentals the better way. Welcome back to big non-profit ideas for the other ninety five percent. I’m going to send podcast pleasantries first for everybody listens in the time shift. Very, very grateful to have you over ten thousand of you. Thank you so much. Live listener love. Oh, my goodness, we’re exploding. This is a very, very popular, very, very popular live show. San jose, california. Shakopee, minnesota. Korbel, indiana live. Listen. Love maspeth, new york land o’lakes, florida, dallas, texas campbell, california, atlanta, georgia live listener love to each of you and there’s more. We have a lot of live. Listen, love. Okay. Um, let’s. Bring in let’s. Bring on our one of our professors. Pull schervish he’s, the professor of sociology and director of the center on wealth and philanthropy at boston college he’s been selected five times to the non-profit times, power and influence top fifty. We got lots of somebody else just a couple weeks ago, henry tim’s lots of power and influence on non-profit radio with john havens. Professor of service co authored the nineteen, ninety eight report millionaires and the millennium, which predicted the now well known forty one billion trillion trillion dollar transfer of wealth and got enormous popular press. His next book will be aristotle’s legacy, the moral biography of wealth and the new physics of philanthropy. Paul service. Welcome to non-profit radio. Pompel e-giving this great intro when he’s not there. Let’s, go to doug white. He’s, also a professor. I am here. I am here. Okay. That’s. Okay. You muted your phone. What kind of inauspicious entrances? That’s a non-profit radio let’s. Do it again. Yeah, i hardly ever muted and it’s hard to mute me. You’re a professor it’s, not it’s. Understood. Welcome to non-profit radio. Thank you very much. Pleasure to have you do it. You, tony. Thank you. Hello, doug. And rob. Hello to you too, it’s. Good to talk about football now we all know each other. Hello, paul. What stood out for you in the twenty fourteen fund-raising numbers from atlas of giving hyre the question i have for rob because and what stuck out is nothing new. But is a question that he’s going to be asked him? It needs to explained because back-up our institute also tends to get hyre increases in giving, eh, dahna e-giving yusa does. But i wanted to ask robin what struck me. Rob was, um no. Why is that one hundred billion dollars larger? Not only a larger trend, but a hundred billion dollars larger. Uh then e-giving usa. And where is that money coming from? I know you asked me a question, and i’m not supposed to answer a question with a question, but rob, i i think that would be informative where’s that money coming from and why is that one hundred billion more, according to what we’re finding with the atlas? Sure, it’s a great question, paul, and the the answer, but in large measure is due to a couple of things. One is that to build the alice of giving to build the out now sixty five algorithms that we have, at least initially, we relied on forty two years of published data from e-giving yusa, and what we relied it relied on it for was to determine what factors actually correlate. Teo e-giving and once we determine those factors we no longer needed e-giving use a data, and so the the atlas numbers took on a life of their own, so to speak, right there, some things that that giving yusa, uh there, there, in my opinion, there’s, some there’s, some things that that need to be asked of giving yusa and our current giving environment that i don’t think that they’re keeping up. With one is donor advised funds, they make no estimate on donor advised funds, and we’re estimating that in two thousand fourteen dahna advised funds were over six percent of the giving total. The other thing is that e-giving yusa is relying on tax data that is more than two years old to make a determination about the year that they’re measuring. And as you well know, the year two thousand nine in terms of tax data very, very different from the year two thousand eleven. So, uh, tryingto trying to use tax data from two years ago to make a determination about about the year you’re measuring isa bit like reading a newspaper from this day two years ago and trying to determine what happened in the news today. Another thing that another weakness is that there is no and giving us a will say in fact they did on this show last year, they said they don’t use surveys dahna they use tax data. Unfortunately for churches, churches are not required to file any tax data, and if they’re not using surveys, we’re talking about a third of the charitable giving total, and i’m not sure where they’re extrapolating their number from but if it isn’t from a survey, it can’t be from tax data and that’s that is a huge difference. That’s uh, that’s a third of the charitable giving economy right there. All right? Uh, yeah, i think it is important to look at these trends and donor invites fundez they’re huge, and i think the listeners should know that they banned foundations that don’t give directly to charity. That was tony’s initial question when people give to a foundation that’s when the charitable gift this registered it’s a charitable gift when a foundation that gives it to a active on direct line charity, it doesn’t show up in these statistics again, same with donor advice once when you give to the donor advice once the atlas, other groups have nicer charitable giving count that it’s the gift they don’t double count the gift to what’s going on out in the world, but the growths and donor advice hyre and foundations our huge over the last ten years, and they project to be continued to be huge, as people, um, give while living can ah lot of foundation formation or a lot of the money that went into force that goes into from patients is actually showing up there earlier. Our research shows instead of waiting for the final estate when of bequests to charitable bequests creates or leads to the largest amount of money for a foundation. No, the debate that’s going on in your listeners are probably well aware of this is are these donorsearch vice funds and foundations housing too much money that he oughta be passing forward more quickly and in larger amounts to today’s needs. And that’s also been debated in congress. Yeah, you have. Yeah. I want to bring in. I want to bring in that one of the points that i think is very important as we see foundation e-giving e-giving two foundations e-giving two donor advised funds increasing as part of this package of growth in philanthropy. Go ahead. Yeah, i want to thank you. I know this guy’s a professor. Go ahead, but the anarchist anarchist is what he is. You have anarchist after your name? No. Just only know only phd. All right, i want to bring doug white. Is that okay? If we bring doug white and paul right now? I’m kidding with you all. Right. Okay. Okay. Thank you. Know, yeah. You should know. I’m joking with you while you have been on before, so maybe you don’t know. That’s. Good. Okay. Doug white, director of the master of science in fund-raising management program at columbia university. He’s been responsible for efforts that have raised more than eight hundred million dollars and he’s written four books. His latest is abusing donorsearch tent. The robertson family’s epic lawsuit against princeton university. We talked about that on non-profit radio last may. Dog. Right. Welcome back to the show in the studio. Thank you for having me, it’s. Good to be here. And it’s. Good to see you again. And it’s. Really good to be on with these two guests that you have. Not really a lot of fun. I agree. Cold. I’m glad you shared that. What? What is significant for you in the twenty fourteen fund-raising review? Well, i was glad to hear the explanation of what the difference is between giving yusa and the atlas. I still would like to know more about how that comes about because it is such a huge amount that and i know that everyone down dallas is going. To have to talk about this a lot, but it is such a huge amount that it almost challenges indiana university to its own methodology, and i think you were saying that earlier, rob and so i’m wondering if at some point there’s going to be some sort of ah, revelation is tow the specifics about how this is really done. For the record, i’ve always been wondering about tthe e-giving yusa numbers anyway, i think that did the d a f the dafs money going in, and also the church estimates are really suspect, and so i’m glad to see other factors being brought into that algorithm, and if it really does mean that we’re raising more than about one hundred billion dollars more per year than we’re being told otherwise. That’s good what i also note is and i think you also mentioned this earlier up, is that education e-giving is increasing, and that would be one of the areas where the stock market is helping. There was a report out this past week about the top ten universities in the united states and how they have increased their giving by about twenty percent has a portion of all of the university e-giving so what that tells me is that more and more wealthy donors are giving to to the larger universities, the wealthy universities, the wealthy organizations and my question or my concern it’s not a question for now, although i’d love to hear anybody’s response to this, but my concern is that a cz we as i look at our program and we’re educating people to go out into the non-profit world to become leaders and fund-raising and leaders and non-profits i’m wondering if we’re seeing a forgive the phrase a de democratization of fund-raising in other words, we usedto work on ah, system, where eighty percent of the people gave twenty percent of the money and vice versa, and so we would spend more and more of our time on that twenty percent of the larger donors i’m afraid that number is closer to ninety or even hyre and ten percent, in other words, what i’m worried about is that as we look for these larger and larger and larger gifts from seoul individuals, are we starting to lose the idea that philanthropy is for everyone and the e-giving report in the atlas strikes me. As being a continuation of that issue, i don’t know that that’s a bad thing in terms of the money going to the charity, i think that’s that’s a separate question what i do wonder about is how charities are reaching a sze yu would say on your show here, tony, the other ninety five percent and how do we make them feel included? And our philanthropic objectives so you’re concerned about either call it a deed, democratization or concentration on the on the flip side of e-giving yeah, i would actually prefer de democratization because i think it is a negative trend, okay, i’ll take i’ll take a bit of a stab at that, doug, i think they’re and this also gets to the question of why the big difference in giving us an estimate and ours, and that is one of the things that’s happened over the past twelve years, that’s the number of non-profits in the u s has grown fifty percent and that that is a huge number because those non-profits regardless of whether they’re you know what their expenses are, they’re raising money and that that is a that’s, a gigantic number of new non-profits entering that, the fund-raising marketplace and then technology has been super fantastic. The effectiveness and efficiency of fund-raising techniques is increasing every day, and to your point about the democratization of charitable giving. There are some great signs of things like bonem well, crowdfunding is one example prize for philanthropy is another example where, where grassroots donors are getting involved online to make significant contributions, and i don’t mean by that major gifts, but make contributions to charitable organizations at the grassroots level. Well, that’s a good point, and i just wanted to ask you, when you say the fifty percent number and no it’s for five months say three’s, did you mean all five a onesie? Threes you’re talking about public charities within that i am talking about five o one c three specifically, ok, so that would include the foundations as well as because there’s been a growth and family foundations to over the years that makes sense. And and i i’m sorry. Good look like talking about okay top heaviness pompel a terrible giving, depending on whether you do it according to federal reserve numbers, by income or by wealth is very topic just to give you an idea back-up about four hundred eighty six thousand household of a million that they have a million dollars in income each year. Bonem they make eleven percent. Hyre excuse me, twenty one percent of all the charitable giving. And when you get to five hundred thousand or more and income for a household, not for individuals, you get thirty percent of the charitable giving. So it’s, very top eddie. But let’s say ninety five percent of the giving is done by households under two thousand two hundred thousand dollars just because of that numbers to those people. So while there is this question of democratization of charitable giving, ninety five percent of terrible giving is still done by households under two hundred thousand and income. Now, if you want to go to back-up one hundred twenty five alison, then it’s, about ninety percent is given by people under one hundred twenty five thousand. So a lot of still going on it’s going on in the church’s, everybody would say that’s, where a large proportion of the church money comes from. But it’s important to understand that there is a vibrant, charitable life that is lower than that, and it is a risk. I think we have to be very careful that we allow people, and this is one of my cases were donorsearch advice, so that the upper affluent can’t put money aside over a period of time to make larger contributions and concentrate on impact for an organisation for which that will make a larger difference than simply a five hundred dollar gift for one hundred dollars. Give teacher paul, we have to. We have to take a break. We’re going to come back. We’ll continue the conversation. Of course, we’ll get to the twenty fifteen forecast. Also. Well, it, uh, doug white, think about what paul just said, and we’ll return to the doug white and paul schervish non-profit radio very shortly. Stay with us. Uh, thank you. We don’t go away for break. I keep talking. Um, fund-raising fund-raising from the heart. It is a workshop in new york city, coming up on february twelfth and thirteenth, right before valentine’s day, lin twist. She used to head fund-raising at the hunger project for twenty years. Her book is the soul of money, and now she coaches and trains fundraisers around the world and she’s doing the teaching at fund-raising from the heart. There’s quite a bit. To learn from her. You can get more information and register at t h p dot or ge slash f, f, th that’s, foxtrot, foxtrot, tango, hotel, lin twist and fund-raising from the heart. Tony steak to my video this week is your best bequest prospects. There are two very simple criteria for identifying the best potential donors for gift by will and ah, i walk you through them by candlelight it’s a candlelight video, not a candlelight vigil, candlelight video and you’ll find that at tony martignetti dot com and that is tony’s take two for friday, thirtieth of january fourth show of twenty fifteen doug, wait, you, uh you wanna respond? Teo paul’s ah, response about your your concern about de democratization? Well, i’m thinking of a more from the perspective of the alumni or the development office, and i think that paul’s, right? In fact, i am sure that the numbers bear out because i’ve seen those as well, that there is a very vibrant e-giving culture going on in the lower economic levels. In fact, the poorest people in the united states tend to give more of their income than the richest people do. S o in terms of people being associated or attracted to charity that’s not my concern so much, i think we’ll always have people who will be i’m thinking of it more from the other direction. From the development office and why we need to continue to pay attention to those smaller donors and not pay all of our attention, although certainly a lot of it is deserved for the larger donors. So, paul, i take your point, and i appreciate your putting it into perspective, i really do. And so i just clarify what i was thinking about from from the fund-raising perspective, not so much the fund, the donor result where the fund-raising result perspective, i’d like to take off my atlas hat and put on my practitioner hat as a fund-raising practitioner for more than thirty years, and doug’s point is a great one it’s about type line it’s the small gifts and small givers are very, very important to the pipeline because the twenty six year old individual who’s giving you, uh, ten or twenty five or fifty dollars, a year now could very easily be the next richard branson in a few years. And you’ve got to keep the pipeline stuffed so that the major gift opportunities and planned giving opportunities come up later. Now, of course, not everybody becomes richard branson, but assed people as people grow and mature and their economic conditions change it’s it is imperative for organizations to keep acquiring new donors at all age levels and and at all income levels as they go forward, because those are your prospects for the future. And, as i say, mostly major gifts and planned gifts or campaign gifts in the future, rob i’d like to i’d like to focus a lot more on the on the review before we get to the twenty fifteen forecast. Can you just run us through a couple of the sectors? How religion, education, environment does have some of those sectors fared in twenty fourteen? Sure, the sectors that did the best tony are those sectors that rely on people who are giving out out of assets rather than out of income or both. And so the the sectors that did particularly well in two thousand fourteen worthy human needs disaster services sector was up twelve point seven percent the environmental sector, which is still a very small sector of the e-giving pie, but that was up eleven point eight percent, and gifts to education were up eleven point five percent. On the downside, though nothing no sector lost ground in two thousand. Fourteen religion or gifts to churches is on ly growing at half the rate of gifts to things like education and the environment, and that the principal reason for that as fewer and fewer americans heir identifying themselves as church members and participating regularly in church activities didn’t know them it’s more of a demographic issue than it is a financial issue. So so religion didn’t lose any market share from twenty thirteen to twenty fourteen, we have religion losing one percent of market share twenty thirteen, twenty four and as i recall that there was also twenty twelve to twenty thirteen yes reported the same thing this time last year, okay, yeah, and, you know, the double whammy for church e-giving also was that when you wrote that in the environment that we’ve been in for the last few years with high unemployment, churches rely on lots of those small gifts from individuals, and when individuals fear becoming unemployed, they are unemployed are only recently employed reemployed they don’t give and that that is a that is a that’s been troubling part of church, giving a troubling part of church e-giving reality for the last couple of years, doug white that does that sound accurate to you? It sounds totally accurate. In fact, the trend is even more dramatic when you look at it. Over the last thirty years, there was a time when church giving constituted about fifty percent of that more than fifty. When was that back in the nineteen eighties, see that’s what is a result of the growing level of wealth and the e-giving areas that wealth holders tend to give to they don’t give the same proportion to their churches because they’re in churches with people like themselves. Once their churches built, they’re not making large contributions to their congregation. And so what duck pointed out earlier about education being more affected by the stock market and growth in the stock market is also a proxy war wealth holders making those large gifts to education bonem and i think that i would agree with that, but rob would agree with it. And, doug, i have to go back on one thing because we won our first research award on showing that the lower income groups do not give a greater proportion of their income than hyre income groups, that is a myth that was recently spread again by the false study in the chronicle of philanthropy. How america gives yes, yes, and when the federal reserve started asking about wealth and income, you’re able to show that at the low end what’s going on is that people are who are giving larger amounts to charity. Our retirees go to church and are giving from their wealth, and so when you look at percentage of income, you could have very low income people making continued substantial gifts, especially to religion. And so behind those numbers is the problem of how you have a very well income denominator and a large charitable gift, and you really don’t have a growth. Well, people slash little income people at that end, boosting that percentage so that’s important to realize that once you conceive of people’s, wealth and income and age at that lower end, the lower and does not give a greater percentage of income except for retirees, they’re well. So the study in the chronicle was faulty in the sense that it didn’t incorporate the study was a a master shame, and we got to do a program on it. They missed twenty percent of all the e-giving by the upper end by the methods that they used that we warned him against you, there was another story. Yeah, and that is another story, it’s a great one, but just one last comment on that there was a great book about twenty five or thirty years ago called wealthy and wise and for the first time, and i forget the author right now, but he did a fabulous job, yes, thank you, claude rosenberg and he did a fabulous job of explaining what you just said in a moment a moment ago and it’s something we need to take into account when we look at e-giving more than we do, we’re going to move to the twenty fifteen forecast from the atlas. Rob, why don’t you acquaint us with what you what you’re seeing for the future? Well, the first i’ll give a caveat and that is that what i’m about, what i’m about to give you as the initial twelve month forecast for twenty fifteen, i will change it always does that’s why we update each month, but our initial forecast for twenty fifteen is particularly bleak. The forecast suggests that giving could drop more than three percent in two thousand fifteen to four hundred forty two billion dollars. You know the projected decrease is largely function of unexpected correction in the stock market and we’ve seen some way have we have not yet we’re not in a bear market we haven’t experienced to correction, but we are seeing some weaknesses in the current bull market on expected increase in interest rates in the second half of twenty fifteen when interest rates go up, it puts pressure on discretionary income on the part of all donors, be the individuals, corporations, foundations, et cetera. Um, the eurozone trouble in weakening economies in germany, france and italy, particularly forty percent of all publicly traded stock company sales are to the eurozone in a weak eurozone economy is going to negatively affect the ability of u s corporations to make charitable gifts at the level they’ve been making them and then the unemployment has improved and is improving. There’s a problem of compensation compensation levels today for people who are in employed have not yet returned to pre recession levels and there are a huge number of americans who are still under employed. That’s that’s a problem as is rising competition, particularly from asia, for us companies, so i i would i would hope though this forecast this initial forecast is bleak our for our initial forecast for twenty fortin was not not so strong as what we ended up experiencing and that’s good news so we can hope for that again this year and perhaps the stock market won’t correct that’ll make a huge difference and some of these other things can be resolved and we’ll have another great e-giving year in twenty fifteen but right now it is it doesn’t look good for twenty fifteen help me explain something, rob, how is it that unemployment helped the twenty fourteen numbers because it had risen, but in twenty fifteen that increased employment is going to hurt the terms of what you think so far? I understand compensation is low, but compensation was low in twenty fourteen also, and we had under employment in twenty fourteen. So how does it cut upward in twenty fourteen and downward in twenty fifteen? The gains that were made in in employment in twenty fourteen were dramatic, and they won’t be so dramatic in twenty fifteen, and so the under compensation problem will be more will be more pronounced in twenty fifteen than it was in twenty fourteen. Let me just say about unemployment again, when people fear becoming unemployed or they’re unemployed, or they’re just recently re employed, they don’t give, typically and, uh, but when someone become what we have, what we’ve been able to observe is that when someone becomes reemployed after a period of unemployment, it takes a cz many as two years before they resume their previous levels of giving before they became unemployed. All right, we’re going to ponder that for a couple minutes. We have to do have to go away. This time. We do stop talking this time, and we’ll come back and continue the conversation. Stay with us. 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Hi, this is claire meyerhoff from the plan giving agency. If you have big dreams but a small budget, you have a home at tony martignetti non-profit radio. In south korea, we have sole and an young listening on your haserot in the netherlands, we have new coupe, we have our bill, iraq and suruga. Shima, japan, konnichiwa, live listener love going to all those countries abroad. I’m sorry barcelona, spain and also turkey, but we can’t see which city you’re you’re masked in turkey, but we know you’re with us live, listener, love, bring it back to the u s quarters villa, georgia, atlanta, georgia. Lancaster, ohio. Lynchburg, virginia live listener loved to you also mass with new york. New bern, north carolina. Bethlehem, pennsylvania. St louis, missouri. Tyler, texas. Los angeles, california, honolulu and washington, d c it’s remarkable that’s a lot of live listeners. We usually get roughly half that live, but that podcast audience never forget the podcast pleasantries because they are critical for us as well. Pleasantries to those listening at other times. Paul service how does that twenty fifteen forecast strike you? I wouldn’t have you said it was bleak? I think that’s too strong a word i might have said. A challenge, you see, because what rob is talking about is twelve percent ship from a nine point something up to a three point something down, and i think that, yes, a huge crisis, but the variables at each site on ly, if they all accumulate, might we have the twelve percent ships that he’s talking about? I would have probably, uh, sighted all of the influences, he indicated. I would have sighted some positive ones. As well. But i might have talked about a chance that instead of a nine percent growth, we might be between a two and a five percent growth, given the same data. You mean to five percent growth from twenty thirteen to twenty fourteen? Yes. Yeah. Okay. Now, if we have the perfect storm dahna and bleak might be the right word. But we only have some clouds on the horizon and some insecurities. And we’re far out at sea, given everything from terrorism. And we do know that economic information and data and growth in the economy is hurt by insecurity and and worry and that we do have all right, let’s, bring if you ever look up the wall of worry about all the things that could go wrong for the economy that is listed a good number from but i think there’s some positive influences, and i think we may be too strong until we know more outwards. Okay, uh, i might have said, uh, challenging all right, rob mitchell. Paul service doesn’t see nine point three percent growth from twenty thirteen to fourteen. He says more like two to five percent. No, no, no. I see. That i don’t see it reversing in twenty fifteen. Okay. Percent. Okay. Okay. What could you could you, briefly, paul, police be brief. What are a couple of positive factors that you see for twenty fifteen? Well, it’s, what you hear on the news something’s cut both ways. One is will we have? We already incorporated the higher interest rates into bilich into the stock market and its expectation, have we found that the oil price reductions bonem are going to encourage consumer spending and standard of living united states? Are we going to find that even though we hear continuously about bob dahna wages and so on, total compensation has gone up when you put into the mix tensions and health care as part of a total compensation? That doesn’t mean people have the money to expend, but it doesn’t mean that they are the enforced to spend it all out of their pockets. Coming from companies lousy thie obama around buy-in assurance program has helped some people with their discretionary income in solo those air some positive things that i think may be up doug, right? Twenty fifteen doug white well, i tend to agree with both people. I know that rob said something, and paul is being a little bit more optimistic, and i think either way, it’s, good news and rob is also very clear about saying, look, this is just a snapshot, and so next month we’ll have more experience and we’ll have debt, better data for the predictions, and so we were kind of nurture that through the year and given both, even if it were to be a perfect storm, and we had a drop over the next year. I don’t think that’d be the end of the world. I mean, we still have a very, very strong philanthropic society, so three percent or four percent drop over what would be this this year, which was a huge increase, i think would not be the end of the world that we should stay on top of it. We should follow this and we should analyze it and dissected, but i’m not worried. Rob and doug just made this point, you know, you have the atlas will have monthly. Is that right? Monthly revisions, teo forecast we update we update the forecasts. First of all, we provide a free report updated each months and it’s usually comes out around the twenty fifth of the month. It’s it is e-giving it’s it’s an estimate of giving for the current giving year the calendar year um and it’s a look forward as much as twelve months and the further we go along and and we’re like any forecast, the the nearer we are a month to month r r our accuracy rate is nearly one hundred percent. The further out you get, the less accurate it becomes. But all of that being said, i think both paul and make some great points. I especially like calls comment about oil prices and the effect on americans at the pump it’s like giving everyone in america and including corporations, by the way, a tax cut and sew it frees up more discretionary income, and we can only hope that that will continue. So i think i appreciate the the advice that bleep maybe too big a word also like doug’s doug’s analysis that, hey, when you’re coming off a four hundred and fifty billion dollars e-giving record giving year, and to have even a modest decline is not the end to the world, i think that’s really important. And the last thing i’d say on this subject is that the importance of keeping up with the the forecast monthly i take you back to two thousand, won two thousand one was shaping up to be are really was shaping up to be a good giving here. And then the events of nine eleven occurred. And we know now that e-giving for naan. Disaster charities basically dried up for six months, so it had a huge impact on giving for the calendar year of two thousand won and also in effect on giving in two thousand two. So it was so that those are reasons why events can make a huge difference. And why we why we like to say we’re trying to keep our finger on the pulse of american philanthropy. We have to leave it there. Rob mitchell, ceo of atlas of giving. You’ll find them at atlas of giving dot com doug white, director for the master of science in fund-raising management program at columbia university. And pull schervish professor of sociology and director of the center on wealth and philanthropy at bc boston college gentlemen. Thank you all very much. Thank you. Thank you. Pleasure. Thanks, tony. Thanks, paul. Thanks, doug it’s. Been a great pleasure. Yes, next week, a show from the archive and a rich archive it is today is our two hundred twenty fifth show, but doing this since july two thousand ten once a week. If you got a favorite, let me know what it is. Tony at tony martignetti dot com. If you missed any part of today’s show, find it at tony martignetti dot com. Fund-raising from the heart, february twelfth and thirteenth, taught by the very smart lin twist information in registration at thp dot or ge slash ff, th foxtrot foxtrot tango hotel km, jozy salem, keizer, oregon. Welcome again, our creative producer is claire meyerhoff. Sam liebowitz is our line producer shows social media is by susan chavez, susan chavez, dot com and the remote producer of tony martignetti non-profit radio is john federico of the new rules. This terrific music is by scott stein of brooklyn. You’re with me next week for non-profit radio. Big non-profit ideas for the other ninety five percent. Go out and be great. What’s not to love about non-profit radio tony gets the best guests check this out from seth godin this’s the first revolution since tv nineteen fifty and henry ford nineteen twenty it’s the revolution of our lifetime here’s a smart, simple idea from craigslist founder craig newmark yeah insights, orn presentation or anything? 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