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Rob Mitchell: Giving: Looking Back And Ahead
Rob Mitchell, CEO of Atlas of Giving, tells us how giving did by sector, source and state in 2012, and how it will do in 2013. What sector increased most? How did you fare compared to the larger picture? What’s ahead? We’ll give away a few $349 Atlas of Giving subscriptions that allow you to get instant personalized forecasts for a year. You can win by listening to the show and by taking the survey below.
Please take a moment to answer three quick questions. If you want to be entered in the contest to win, fill in question 4 with your email address. You’ll find it below. Thank you! If you could also share it with other nonprofit professionals, I would appreciate it.
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Here is a link to the survey: http://www.surveymonkey.com/s/FG78NBB
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Hello and welcome to tony martignetti non-profit radio big non-profit ideas for the other ninety five percent you know me, i’m your aptly named host. I hope very much that you were with me last week don’t let me hear that you missed social media data to find advocates, leaders and hidden vips. Casey golden, ceo of small act, and mark davis, director of product marketing for blackbaud shared ways to leverage social media metrix to find hidden gems among your constituents, and that was pre recorded at the bb con conference that i was at last october and get engaged for amy sample ward, our social media scientists and regular contributor she’s, the membership director for in ten non-profit technology network, and she continued our siri’s on serious engagement through the social networks, looking at staffing, who should staff your social engagement? How much time are they going to spend and what policies do you need? This week e-giving looking back and ahead. Rob mitchell, ceo of atlas giving atlas of giving, tells us how giving did by sector source and state in two thousand twelve and how it will do in two thousand thirteen what sector increased most how did you fare? Compared to the larger picture and what’s ahead? We’re going to give away a few three hundred forty nine dollars atlas of giving subscriptions that will allow you to get instant personalized forecasts for a year, and i’m very pleased that rob is with me for the hour, about midway through tony’s take two my block this week. Is the charitable ira rollover revived? I blogged that last week also, but there’s still, the january ketchup provision that’s available for your donors to make gifts from their iras, and i’ll talk about that. It is now my pleasure to welcome to the studio and back to the show. Rob mitchell he’s, the ceo of atlas of giving, which is at atlas of giving dot com yes, thirty years working in and around non-profits as a fundraiser, executive and consultant, the atlas of giving measures analyzes and forecasts charitable giving monthly by sector source and state, and i’m glad to welcome back to the show in the studio for the first time. Rob mitchell, how are you? I’m doing fantastic, tony, how are you? I’m well to guide you. You’re visiting from texas, right? I am it’s. A we don’t get this kind of weather in texas to off yeah, we’re in the thirties way have been for a few days dahna let’s talk about the methodology let’s re acquaint listeners who may not remember from last january what’s the methodology of the atlas of giving. Ok, well, it goes back tio my experiences, a practitioner, most recently at the american cancer society running the fund-raising programs for the society and i was always frustrated that there was no benchmark that i could use to measure are giving on a contemporary basis the only measurement that was available at that time was giving yusa, which comes out in june mid june, following the giving year and our fiscal year there started in september, the giving us a numbers weren’t particularly useful to me anyway. Bottom line i had a hypothesis and a hypothesis was that charitable giving was directly tied to certain factors in the economy and demographics, and if we could identify what those factors were, we could build a measurement device for measuring charitable giving as it occurs and perhaps a forecast, and i’m happy to say, we’ve been able to do both very successfully. So what we were able to do on what we started with was we we looked at over seventy five different demographic and financial variables econometric down. Is that true? It’s condom actress it’s an album that work, this is a very highly educated all right, great it’s an algorithm, and so what happened was we gave a team of twenty five phd researchers seventy five more than seventy five variables to look at, they came back to us on a national basis. We also gave them forty two years of published e-giving data to look at, they came back to us, they said, ok, these air, the factors that affect charitable giving, and we’ve built an algorithm that when matched against forty two years of published giving data matches with a correlation of coefficient of ninety five and a half percent, which almost never occurs. Okay? And so since then, we’ve been able that was for national giving the toll picture. Since then, we’ve been able to develop specific algorithms for each of nine sectors and for each source of giving individuals, foundations, corporations and bequest and four fifty states in d c okay, excellent, and you can do this looking back and also forecasting for the future. Yes, one of the great things about the factors that we now know affect charitable giving that charitable giving is directly tied to is that we know that many of those factors have already very successful multi year forecast. So we’re able to incorporate those forecast into our our algorithms to measure cheered will giving to produce a very reliable, very accurate forecast, in fact are variants for the last two years on our twelve month forecast, which is the has the most variability it’s kind of like weather. The further out you go, the less accurate it becomes. But our variants this year, for example, was about one and a half percent okay. Ah, how many data points are we talking about? Well, there are literally dozens, it depends on which algorithm you’re talking about. Some of the algorithms are in terms of input variables our it’s on ly a handful and others are more complex, and they range everything from i think most people are aware that charitable giving is tied in some way too gross domestic product, okay? And so many of the variables include gross domestic product. But they include everything from home sales and consumer confidence to even auto parts sales. Believe it or not, really okay, i had a guest on lately who made an analogy between e-giving fund-raising and selling cars. He had an interesting infographic, sort of whimsical, but was making making the point. So now there is an automotive off relationship, okay, unemployment, mazarene heimans huge unemployment well, it’s, it’s huge in some sectors and some sources, obviously individual for individual giving. And you know, tony, one of the things we’ve learned through the process of creating the atlas now on running it for a few years is that the charitable giving machine is very intricate. And so how an organization raises money is oftentimes mohr important related to the economy than what sector that they’re in? And one example i would give you over the last two years as unemployment’s bin as, you know, very high and by historical standards so unemployment’s been high that has a huge impact negative impact on those organizations, which primarily rely on small lots of small individual gifts. I’m by the same token, the organizations that have relied on on major gifts, colleges and universities. Is an example. Thie education sectors done very well the last couple of years, but the stock market has done exceptionally well the last couple of years, and the unemployment rate for college graduates their alumni is less than half of what the overall unemployment rate is for the u s this is all very interesting level these moving parts now you have close to a million data points. Is that right? Are is that right? Or, you know, one of the one of the things is a very high number nine hundred ninety thousand something you’ve got nine hundred ninety thousand data points and so that’s that’s about fifty years of giving history and all the variables that are involved. And so we’ve used that now to create what will be an instant custom forecast for organizations to be able to use, and the reliability is still at the ninety five point, five percent or little hyre it’s, the reliability on that particular product is going to be very high it’s going to be in excess of ninety five percent. We also have what we call atlas premiere, where we actually taken organizations multiyear, giving history and build their own algorithm. We can determine what economic and demographic factors dr giving that for that with them individually for them. Yes, ok, very interesting. We have just a minute before a break. Why don’t you, uh, thi’s two thousand twelve will just give us a broad overview of two thousand twelve, and after the break, we’ll go into the details. Two thousand twelve was a solid giving year, but i’ll parenthetically say, not for everybody, okay, but it was a very good year, right? What it was a very good year. Giving was up six point, seven percent overall in the nation right in two thousand twelve. Okay, we’re going to come back and talk in greater detail about two thousand twelve and also the forecast for two thousand thirteen. After this break, stay with us talking alternative radio, twenty four hours a day. Are you stuck in your business or career trying to take your business to the next level, and it keeps hitting a wall? This is sam lebowitz, the conscious consultant. I will help you get to the root cause of your abundance issues and help move you forward in your life. Call me now and let’s. Create the future you dream of. Two, one, two, seven, two, one, eight, one, eight, three, that’s to one to seven to one, eight one eight three. The conscious consultant helping huntress people be better business people. Are you concerned about the future of your business for career? Would you like it all to just be better? Well, the way to do that is to better communication, and the best way to do that is training from the team at improving communications. This is larry sharp, host of the ivory tower radio program and director at improving communications. Does your office need better leadership, customer service sales, or maybe better writing, are speaking skills? Could they be better at dealing with confrontation conflicts, touchy subjects all are covered here at improving communications. If you’re in the new york city area, stop by one of our public classics, or get your human resource is in touch with us. The website is improving communications, dot com, that’s, improving communications, dot com, improve your professional environment, be more effective, be happier, and make more money improving communications. That’s, the hey, all you crazy listeners looking to boost your business? Why not advertise on talking alternative with very reasonable rates? Interested simply email at info at talking alternative dot com dafs welcome back. We’re with rob mitchell’s, ceo of atlas, of giving. We’re talking about all kinds of giving last year and this year. All right, so let’s go into detail, rob about twenty twelve let’s start with the sectors who did what? What sector did the best in twenty twelve? Well, we had several sectors that were extraordinarily good. The environmental sector, though it’s, the smallest sector that we measure, had a very good year in two thousand twelve. What what’s the what’s, the proportion of giving that goes to environmental? I think environmental is about five percent of all giving. Ok? And how well did they do? They actually did very well. The environmental sector was up ten point nine percent in two thousand twelve. Okay, let’s, look it at other sectors. I’m sure you have education. Education had a good year. Education e-giving was up eight point eight percent in two thousand twelve. Okay. And disaster relief was was comparable, right? Disaster relief was comparable in large measure because of hurricane sandy or i guess superstorm storm sandy eight point eight percent also a point. Okay, religion. You had said last year that religion was a declining percentage. Of total giving it isthe continues to being continues to be so what is the proportion that goes to religion now? The proportion that goes to religion now is thirty five percent of all gifts go to religion. And was that was a thirty six last year. Was it a percent hyre or it was a percent hyre last year. Okay on dh s o education is now is declining. And how? How much religion is the client? I’m sorry. Religion is declining as a percentage of total giving as a percentage of total. How did it do? Last year in religion? One thousand religion e-giving to churches and religion was still up in two thousand twelve. But it was up less than the national average and up less when compared with all the other sector. So was up four point two percent. Okay. And you had said earlier the national average is six point seven percent. E-giving that is correct. Okay? And how much is that? How much is how much is our total e-giving from all sources? Three how much was in two thousand twelve? Three hundred little over three hundred and sixty nine billion dollars was given. To charities of all kinds in two thousand twelve. Okay, let’s, let’s. Keep it let’s. Keep looking at the sectors. What other ones have you? Have you got there? We did disaster environment, religion, education. Health was up five point eight percent. The arts were up eight percent. Human needs in society was up seven point eight percent international was up seven point three percent. And what the what we call the analogue k did sector, which includes things like donorsearch vise funds was up nine percent. Okay, now this is a world premiere of these numbers, right? These have not yet been released. They have not been released. In fact, our official press release is not scheduled to go out until tuesday. Okay, outstanding. We have a way. Have some prizes to give away. You’re giving away some subscriptions to atlas of giving for a year. Why don’t you just tell people what it is? They’re they can win. Well. Starting next week, in the middle of next week, we’re going to introduce what’s called atlas custom. And so the winners of these will be able to go on our web site with a code that that you give. Them and they’ll be able by answering six questions about giving at their organization things like what was their total giving last year? What percentage of their gifts came from foundations, corporations, individuals in bequest, those kinds of questions? They answer six easy questions, and they get a twelve month forecast that has for their organization, and we’re going to be charging three hundred forty nine dollars. And by the way, our forecast is updated each month because just like with a weather forecast, we can’t predict today what the weather is going to be a year from now in new york city, whether is a bad example, i think you should find a different analogy to make them whether well, actually trust the weather are twelve month forecast is a whole lot better than the weather. Okay, we hope so. All right, so so users so winners can go in as many times as they’d like throughout the year that they’ll get the free subscription. Sure, but the numbers are only updated once a month. The numbers are updated once. Okay, excellent. And we already have a winner. The winner came from our survey results on that is her. E mail is cheryl at ascending? Non-profits so we’re going to be sending cheryl at ascending non-profits, eh? The code. We’ll give the email teo robin, he’ll give you the code. Is that how it was going to work? That’s bad is how cheryl congratulations and one of the questions that we asked on that survey that cheryl won. And by the way, did you know we have a survey often on shows? If you didn’t know that, then you should be subscribing to our weekly email alerts. They come out every thursday. Tells you the guests are going to be that week and also has a link to the survey. You can also find the survey on my blaga tony martignetti dot com one the questions we asked is, do you benchmark your charities giving against others in your sector? And about two thirds said yes on one third said no, very interested into that. All right, two thirds. And this is atlas e-giving is perfect for benchmarking it is you want to see how you did compared tto your sector, your others in your state and in different from different sources. Well, and one thing i would say is you know, we’ve talked about this new product that’s being debuted next week that we’re giving away today, but we have a free product and the free product comes out once a month and it’s the atlas of giving report and it shows e-giving by month for the last twelve months and so you’re able tto benchmark your results by sector source and state every month, and it doesn’t cost you a dime. All you have to do is go to atl e-giving dot com okay, but what we’re giving away is the custom and custom custom forecast custom forecast. Okay, we have a way for live listeners to win that custom forecast. We’re going to give away two on twitter and two on facebook going to see how this goes. I i’m asked the first to people who tweets or put on the show’s facebook page this phrase, i’m listening live too hashtag non-profit radio and we all know the hashtag is the pound sign i’m listening live to hashtag non-profit radio tweet that right now, live listeners tweet that right now if you’re one of the if you’re the first or second person to tweet it, then you’ll win, and if you’re the first or second person to post that phrase on the show’s facebook page, you also will win. I’m listening live to hashtag non-profit radio. Go to twitter, go to facebook, do it right now and this is a good time to send some live listener love we got live listeners san antonio, texas, yonkers, new york and south field michigan is that field? Sam, i can’t read your terrible writing. Southfield, michigan, yonkers, new york and san antonio, texas live listener love going out to you and yes, we have listener’s foreign as well. Valencia, valencia, spain welcome hola. Okay, rob mitchell let’s get back to some of the numbers on san will be monitoring the hashtag in the studio, but we’re also going toe check it with the show social media manager for final results will come from regina walton. Um to what do you attribute this very strong two thousand twelve giving here? Well, there, there are several things one, as i would say, the stock market had a huge impact. The dow grew at more than ten percent in two thousand twelve, the broader market, the s and p measurement of the market cruise. Sixteen percent in two thousand twelve. That was huge. Gdpr gross domestic product, really gross domestic product, was up and accelerating in the last in the last part of the year, the last half of the year. That was that’s, always good news, forgiving. Home sales home sales are r the the best they’ve been in the last five years. Home prices we have seen the worst. It’s over home prices are on the rebound. There were there were some there’s, some great things. You know, when people think about the economy typically they think about this amorphous economy. And if you listen to too much news from the media, you get a distorted vision of what the economy is really doing because there are certain factors in the economy. I bet that most of our listeners today were unaware that start the broad stock market was up sixteen percent last i agree, i think most people aren’t aware of that. And so now the one thing that is that the year could have been a lot better, because if you consider the fact that individual giving accounts for seventy five percent of all gifts in the united states, unemployment is still a major drag. We started the year with unemployment at eight and a half percent, and now unemployment is at seven point, eight percent. So a slight improvement, but based on historical levels of unemployment still tough and here’s the thing about unemployment to when it relates to giving, if you’re out of a job or you fear becoming out of a job, you discontinue your charitable giving on for the most part, drastically reduced, and then once you become reemployed, what? What our studies show is that you are you’re giving will not continue for another couple of years after you become reemployed because you’re you and your family are making up for it, but you’ve got to catch up it’s deferred expenses, replenishing your savings, the vacations that you didn’t take, those sorts of things so charitable giving there’s a delayed effect and high unemployment and it’s huge in in in the charitable giving pie for the u s because individual giving is such a large part of that seventy five percent. One other thing i’d say on the positive side about individual giving, this was a fantastic year for what i’d call the uber gift. Warren buffett gave a three billion dollar gift this year. Mark zuckerberg, the founder of facebook, gave a gift that was a billion million dollars shy of five hundred million dollars. In fact, there were there were five gifts that accounted for almost two. Point five percent of the entire charitable giving economy, and this is a typical compared to two thousand less this is that this is the year where i would say is the the rebound of the nine figure gift and s o we haven’t had gifts this size in the last couple of years, and this has been good, okay? We have a couple of people who have tweeted the phrase durney i i’m listening live to hashtag non-profit radio looks like michael baker and jim gillette, but we’re going to confirm that the final arbiter of the prizes is the show’s social media manager, s o preliminarily it’s, michael baker and jim gillette on twitter. But we can’t say for sure on facebook. I don’t know we’re not looking at facebook in the studio, but facebook put that same phrase on the show’s facebook page. I’m listening live to hashtag non-profit radio and if your first or second you will win one of these subscriptions you rob, we’re talking about individual giving, so why don’t we talk about some of the sources of given and how those did compared to two thousand eleven let’s start with individual what happened? Individually, individual gifts were very close to the national average and gain percentagewise. Individual gifts were up six and a half percent in two thousand twelve, and we would expect that because that’s such a big proportion such a big proportion of the economy. Okay, well, your foundation’s foundations were up nine e-giving was up nine point three percent and that’s private foundations, right? You distinguish them private foundation. Okay? And and how about corporate foundation and corporate direct corporate foundation and corporate direct was up four point seven percent in two thousand twelve. Ok, and the one near and dear to my heart as a request bequest, we’re up five point nine percent below the national average, though below the national average. Unfortunately, alright, i’s, that all the sources that you, the fact we tracked four sources individuals, corporations, foundations and bequests. Okay with me is rob mitchell he’s, the ceo of atlas of giving, which you’ll find at atlas of giving dot com on. We’re talking about giving last year and later on we’ll get teo this coming year. Let’s, talk about some states. Yeah, you have. Ah, what? What’s? The most generous state in your measures. Well it depends on whether you’re talking about giving growth or total giving because total giving is directly related to population, as you might imagine, california, california, california and new york or big about texas, texas, texas is big and texas had a great year. I don’t know if this is widely known. Texas is the second most populous state, yes, rowing, because california, texas, new york yeah, you’re you’re aware thatyou gets out of that. Of course they have sex, and i’m always proud of things that are bigger and better. Text is texas living up to its number two population size in terms of overall giving it iss in fact, e-giving in texas was up over eight percent this year, and i would tell you this tony about st giving about regional giving if you look at the states that did well last year, no surprise those air, the states that that had the most robust look economies for those states and so texas’s experience as texas is an example is experiencing a huge swell and uptick in the oil business, and it has a very compared to the national average has a low unemployment rate and so other states that have done well the past year, florida, pennsylvania, illinois and so those states have done very well compared to the other states most of the other states were, you know, they’re pretty close to the national average just above or just under okay, well, what? Which state had the largest growth in e-giving from two thousand eleven to two thousand twelve? That distinction falls to let me look at my notes here for a second, okay, that distinction falls, tio see? Well, rob is looking that up. I’ll remind you if you tweet, if you post the phrase i’m listening live to hashtag non-profit radio on the facebook page shows facebook page if you’re the first or second person to do that, we will give you one of these three hundred forty nine dollars subscriptions to atlas of giving for the whole year, you’ll be able to personally predict how your fund-raising will do. Bye bye source do we have? We have that we do highest increase what? I’m really disappointed, tony, because texas didn’t make it to number one, but illinois was first with seven points. Well, excuse me. Florida was first was eight point four percent. Growth eight point four percent in florida. Ok, eight point for illinois. Second was seven point seven. Texas was in third place with eight and a half percent. Okay. All right, top three. Interesting. We have just about two minutes before before our break. Do you consider donorsearch vise funds? How do they think they work into your that’s? A very big source of its e-giving. And then ultimately, hopefully sometime there’s a delay of gifts to charity had well, the way that it’s working now is very interesting because those gifts are factored in. And if you look at our largest donor advised funds the fidelity gift fund, they they’ve renamed it, but they had a they had a record year for the second year consecutively and grants made out of the fund and on new gifts into the fun really grants out. Yes. Very interesting. Yes, but we like to say and so but they’re they’re they’re gifts in group. Believe it or not. Year over year eighty nine percent from two thousand eleven to two thousand twelve. Holy cow! Are you sure? Yes, pasha it’s. Not a mistake. Positive. You can go to their website. Check me. Out eighty nine percent growth you’re over from eleven to twelve. Yes, my goodness. Okay, we’re going to continue this discussion after the break. Tony’s, take two, and then, of course, robyn, i will keep talking. Do we have there? Have anybody who facebooked thea, nobody you could still win on facebook, are still giving away to atlas of giving subscriptions on facebook. Post the phrase on the radio show on the show page. I’m listening live to hashtag non-profit radio. I hope you’re going to stay with us e-giving thinking, tooting, getting ding, ding, ding, ding! You’re listening to the talking alternative network, itching to get in. E-giving cubine hi, i’m donna and i’m done were certified mediators, and i am a family and couples licensed therapists and author of please don’t buy me ice cream are show new beginnings is about helping you and your family recover financially and emotionally and start the beginning of your life will answer your questions on divorce, family court, co, parenting, personal development, new relationships, blending families and more. Dahna and i will bring you to a place of empowerment and belief that even though marriages may end, families are forever join us every monday, starting september tenth at ten a m on talking alternative dot com are you suffering from aches and pains? Has traditional medicine let you down? Are you tired of taking toxic medications? Then come to the double diamond wellness center and learn how our natural methods can help you to hell? Call us now at to one to seven to one eight one eight three that’s to one to seven to one eight one eight three or find us on the web at www dot double diamond wellness dot com. We look forward to serving you. You’re listening to the talking alternative network. I’m leslie goldman with the us fund for unicef, and i’m casey rodder with us fun for unison. You’re listening to tony martignetti non-profit radio big non-profit ideas for the other ninety five percent. Welcome back to big non-profit ideas for the other ninety five percent time now for tony’s, take two at roughly thirty two minutes into the hour. My block this week is the i r a charitable rollover revived. I mentioned it last week, but i want to spend another a few minutes talking about it because you still have this. Your donors to still have this january catch up provisions a reminder that the ira e-giving was revived in the american taxpayer relief act that was passed on january first. It’s not really a roll over, roll over is the ah popular phrase it’s ah it’s actually a distribution and it’s called a qualified charitable distribution so that’s what i’m going to call it, i use roll over on the block just because that’s, what people are going to search for your donors have to be over seven, seventy and a half or over on the date they make their gift. They do this from a traditional or a roth ira. They have ah, maximum qualified charitable distribution of one hundred thousand dollars per ira owner and that’s across all the across all the qualified charitable distributions they might make. The different charities per year, so one hundred thousand dollars maximum per ira owner per year, and the distribution has to go directly from their ira, too. Your charity this january catch up provisioned that i mentioned is that if if they make a qualified charitable distribution to your charity in january, got to do this before february first, then they can count it toward two thousand twelve, and that will do two things for them in two thousand twelve. It will be eliminated from their taxable income, so it’s not reported as income, and it will count toward there rmd or required minimum distribution. So two thousand twelve most people have probably already met their required minimum distribution because we didn’t know we were gonna have these this catch up provisions. So by december thirty first, people probably already took what they what they needed to otherwise they would have been penalized, but this has the advantage of being nontaxable and still counting toward that required minimum distribution. There’s a lot more about this on my blogged at tony martignetti dot com, including a one page downloadable briefing that i wrote for you that you can use to brief your board use it in the newsletter or email blast. Ah, that is also part of that post on my block, continuing now with rob mitchell, ceo of atlas, of giving and rob, why don’t we talk a little about you’re twenty thirteen forecast? Well, thanks, i love talking about the forecast, although i i’m afraid i don’t have great news for two thousand thirteen so the atlas, by the way, is the only forecast for charitable giving in the us and it’s been very reliable on dh, as i mentioned before, month to month it’s it’s nearly one hundred percent reliable actually for the quarter. It’s a little less reliable than it is for the six month period but for twelve months ahead. It’s very reliable with the variants of about one and a half percent. Okay, so it’s it’s a very reliable forecasts are forecast for two thousand thirteen. We should have a drum roll because it’s the world premiere that’s the world premiere of this forecast it’s a world premiere the forecast for total giving for the united states two thousand thirteen will be three hundred seventy five billion, which is only a one point six sadly only a one point six percent increase over two thousand twelve. Oh, my goodness, compared to six point seven from from last year. Yes. Okay, um, you have something special about the last quarter of this year? Well, actually, the last four months of this year. Indeed, for the first time since we’ve looked at things the it’s actually more than the last quarter it’s out called the last trimester, it starts in september and so what we’re what the atlas is showing for september, october, november and december is that giving will actually be less than it was for those months in two thousand twelve. So if you’re relying on a big year end, this isn’t the year for it. And why do you predict that those four months are going to be so much worse than the corresponding months in two thousand twelve? I think a major factor is the stock market, and we’re not expecting the stock market to have the same kind of year in two thousand thirteen that it’s had the last two years, so stock market growth is certainly a part of it there’s some other factors involved, you know, we talk about individual giving, making up such a large part of the charitable pie and there’s some things that have hit americans starting in two thousand thirteen that are going to have an impact on individual giving for those of us who work and have social security deducted from our paychecks, we just had a tax hike, and so it means less disposable income consumer confidence, though, is it? It rose a bit in two thousand twelve, consumer confidence for two thousand thirteen is not looking so good, so so those are some of the factors that are that are going to drive e-giving to a lower growth point and in terms of of this last the year end for two thousand twelve, you know, we had a we had a great stock market when people are thinking about we also there’s some, there are some concerns and some of the things that drove giving in the last quarter of this year, including things like the the buffet in the zuckerberg gift who are the you know, it’s expected that taxes are going to go up in the charitable deduction is in question may be a loss of the charitable deduction it may. Be a reduction in the charitable deduction, so a lot of people were motivated to give it the end of two thousand twelve gifts of appreciated assets or set up planned gifts at the end of two thousand twelve, and that is not going to be the same case in your end this year. Okay, okay. Just in that little little niche of planned giving them. But you’re you’re measuring realized bequest? Yes, we are ok at people’s deaths. Okay. I want to take a moment to send out some more live listener love. And also we have a contest for podcast listeners. Podcast listeners the nine thousand you listen on from itunes you are not for gotten by any means. We have a contest for you also. But let’s send live listener love teo, nanjing, china ni hao taipei, taiwan. I don’t know how to say hello in oh, no, taiwan is chinese. So anyhow, i do know, of course, and i know that china chinese has spoken in taiwan. It’s, common knowledge. Inchon, inchon, korea on you go and seoul, korea also neuro haserot lots of live listener love going abroad now for podcast listeners. You, if you want to win one of the subscriptions to atlas of giving? I want you to put on the show’s facebook page, i’m i i listen to the podcast and use hashtag non-profit radio i listen to the podcast hashtag non-profit radio and i know when the podcast comes out so live listeners don’t think you can get away with this because i know very few people know when the podcast goes live so that’s on what did you say on facebook? That’s on facebook podcast listeners only i’m going to give away three to podcast listeners three atlas of giving subscriptions i listen to the podcast hashtag non-profit radio on the show’s facebook page. Okay, rob let’s, talk about how the different sectors are going to fare in twenty thirteen who who looks the best? The best is again well, not again, but the best sector forecast for two thousand thirteen is the environmental sec geever up five point nine percent now that helped that’s helpful and good, but again, the environmental sector is the smallest sector of the nine we measure so there’s. You know, i could speculate as to why the environmental sector is doing well, i think. It has a lot to do with the fact that many of us are more in tune with environmental issues than we’ve ever been before. What is that? What is the largest sector? Well, of course, the largest sector is religion, religion, e-giving your churches and religion okay, predicted to continue its declined one percent at a time. Yeah, well, actually, religion is actually going to gives to churches and religion is forecast to experience a really decrease from two thousand twelve to two, two thousand thirteen, so not only in well, is it going to decrease in percentage of overall giving that it represents also yes, another percent down to thirty probably will be another person for i think we’ll be down to thirty for ok. And how much do you predict that the overall giving to religion will decline? A little less than one percent point eight percent so nearly flat. But it is what we’re showing today is that by this time next year, gifts to churches and religion will have shown a decline. Okay, now all of these predictions get refined every month after month, right? So atlas of giving subscribers and the lucky people who win the wind the subscription khun see month after month how the different sectors are predicted to do for the for the next twelve months or in the next twelve months, right? Not just to the end of the counter here, but for the next twelve for the next twelve months. And this is important as a practitioner, because if you’re setting a budget and let’s say your fiscal year doesn’t start with january one when i was at the american cancer society, our fiscal year started september one, so you want to be able to have a forecast so that you can do your budgeting based on what you’re this whole year is? And one of the other things i’d say that’s important about the update monthly in the forecast is i was at the american cancer society in two thousand won and we were having, ah, good year and most organizations in america, we’re having a good giving year in two thousand one, and then we had september eleventh and the world change and giving came to a near stand still for six months, and so just, you know, there are events that unfold oppcoll month to month not every month and and not every day, but events effect giving. And so a dramatic event like that obviously has a big impact. But their events all over all over the u s all over the world that an impact giving and that’s the reason for checking in regularly with the atlas to see what the forecast has become. Let’s, let’s spend a little more time on the different sectors. Sector predictions for two thousand twelve why don’t you just go through a sari for two thousand thirteen just in the two minutes or so we have a break one before we have a brake lines just run down what the sectors look like for this year. Health is going to be just a bubble above flat at point three percent growth education will be two point, six percent growth, human services, and this also includes disaster services, up four point nine percent. So compared to the field, that sector is expected to do well. The arts up two point seven percent i’ve already talked about the environmental sector up five point nine percent international, up two percent. And then our unallocated sector, which includes things like donorsearch advised funds and those don’t then those charities that don’t fit well in another category up three point seven percent. Okay. And so that analogy hated would consider would include all the social service, human service agencies, grassroots agencies. No, no, no. Those those would be in our human services and disaster. Yeah, we do have human services and disaster. Yeah, i said okay, just a minute or so before the break. Why don’t we just run down? What the different sectors are in terms of which is largely no religion is the largest on that. Gets predicted to get about thirty four percent of giving. Yeah, religion. None of the other fact. How do the other sectors? Fair. Religion is the largest. Currently thirty five percent. Education is next with sixteen percent. Human services disaster services. Twelve percent of the entire giving pie. Um, the unallocated sectors ten percent society benefit eight percent international, five percent. The arts for percent. And the environmental sector is at two percent of the pie. All right. When we come back, we’ll talk about different sources. Oh, and predictions for two thousand thirteen. Stay with us. Snusz you’re listening to the talking alternative network. Duitz lorts cerini are you stuck in your business or career trying to take your business to the next level, and it keeps hitting a wall? This is sam liebowitz, the conscious consultant. I will help you get to the roof because of your abundance issues and help move you forward in your life. Call me now and let’s. Create the future you dream of. Two, one, two, seven, two, one, eight, one, eight, three, that’s to one to seven to one, eight one eight three. The conscious consultant helping conscious people. Be better business people. Dahna have you ever considered consulting a road map when you feel you need help getting to your destination when the normal path seems blocked? A little help can come in handy when choosing an alternate route. Your natal chart is a map of your potentials. It addresses relationships, finance, business, health and, above all, creativity. Current planetary cycles can either support or challenge your objectives. I’m montgomery taylor. If you would like to explore the help of a private astrological reading, please contact me at monte at monty taylor dot. Com let’s, monte m o nt y that monty taylor. Dot com. Talking alternative radio twenty four hours a day. Even more live listener. Love going out tio, gwangju, korea, on yo haserot and fu zhou, china now also tonawanda, new york and philadelphia, pennsylvania. How you doing? Another survey question that i want to share with listeners was, do you benchmark your charities giving against others in your state? The previous question was by sector by state, it’s actually reversed on ly one third said yes to that by state, and two thirds said, no, they don’t, and in a couple minutes i’ll have the answers for different types of giving that charity’s listeners are our benchmarking. Rob let’s, let’s. Look at some of the sources of giving in two thousand thirteen, individual, we’ve said a couple times is the biggest. How is individual going to fare in twenty thirteen? Well, consider the context of total giving for the u. S is projected to go up one point, six percent individual gifts. We’ll be up one point, two percent. Foundation gifts. And this is an area that practitioners might want to focus on next year. Foundation gifts are our forecast to be up four point nine percent. Okay. How did foundation do in two thousand twelve, they were up nine point three percent. Yes. Okay. All right. So so foundations is kind of the highlight by source. The low light. Well, before i get to the little light, i’ll give you the other kind of sad news. Tony, given your background is the request giving. No, we’ll only be a point. Seven percent. Now these air realized request. This is not this is not pipeline sort of stuff and plan giving. This is actually realized bequest. This is interesting. So that means that the people who created gift by will years ago are going to die at a slower rate or their gifts or smaller in their wills. What could you possibly know this? Well, there’s. Some demographic factors involved. And so yeah, i mean, the death rate, the population, the age of the population, those sorts of things matter. But more importantly, and more specifically, the value of our persons of state is what matters the most. And so, as you well know, many people leave a percentage of their estate to chair to a number of charities. And so when the value of their estate, because of the value of the stocks that are in this state or the value of the real estate that’s in the estate is is lower than the bequest, the actual realized request number becomes lower. Okay, mix mix. Good sense. I see how you could know that. Ok, why did you continue? Go ahead. S o the sources. So one left and it’s it unfortunately is going to be the low light forecast for two thousand thirteen. Corporate giving will actually decline slightly. Just it’s basically flat but it’s forecast to be down point three percent. Okay. And what would i thought? We’d said religion was going to be down. Well, you were talking about that’s, a sector and i’m talking about me that i’m screwed up. Okay. Sorry. This is sources. Yes. Alright. So business foundations the low light down. Three tenths of a percent. Okay, now this is interesting. Individual giving is going to be up just one point two, um and overall giving will be up one point. Six. Yes. What’s ah, what’s. Boosting the overall foundation giving. Okay, it’s okay. And what’s the percentage that foundation giving represents to the to the total foundation e-giving represents rob on the spot you got me on. Ah, got its thirteen percent of all giving excellent. You have these numbers. He makes you think he’s sifting through papers, but he just he is modest. He has these numbers off the top of his head. I’ll share another survey result. The question was, what types of giving do you benchmark? If if you do benchmark what types of giving total giving? About eighty six percent of people benchmark total e-giving e-giving at specific dollar levels about forty three percent. About twenty seven percent benchmark private foundation giving and about fifty seven percent said that they benchmark corporate foundation giving and nobody benches their planned e-giving i’m dismayed by that it’s interesting there’s no competition in in the death business, which is my business. That’s why i say that my business’s plan e-giving, um, we have just a couple minutes left, rob mitchell and i want to ask you take a love moment. What is it that you love about doing the atlas of giving what is it? What? What drives you about this? It’s it’s learning essentially because all those all those decades is a practitioner. I didn’t have access to this kind of information, and if i were a practitioner today, this would definitely drive how i allocated my fund-raising resource is through the year how i did my budgeting, it’s it’s an amazing thing how how i distributed my fund-raising budget as an example diversification of the way you raise money makes a huge difference and understanding who how you raise money and who you raise it from makes a huge difference to and can increase the levels of your giving. And so we’re learning things because we have access to this information that we’ve never been able to know before, and that is what keeps me going. I really do love digging into these numbers. Rob mitchell, ceo of atlas, of giving it’s at atlas of giving dot com rob, thanks very much for coming to studio from texas being a guests pleasure loved it. Happy trails glad to have you back next week author yana jane hoexter will be in the studio for the hour talking about her book, grantwriting, revealed twenty five experts share their art, science and secrets. We have nine thousand listeners, a little over nine thousand listeners non-profit radio and fewer than twenty itunes readings. Let’s, go get the number of itunes ratings to reflect the nine thousand people who are out there listening to the podcast. Why? Why does why does tony think that’s important? Because that gives us prominence in itunes and helped expose the show to more non-profits therefore, helping the entire charity community so help raise the stature of the show, and that will help other charities. You can help. You could do that by let’s by getting the number of ratings up, and my goal that i’m setting is one hundred. We’re at a little under twenty right now, so that’s a fivefold increase there’s a goal of one hundred, i’m asking youto go to itunes and give the show a one through five star rating live listeners as soon as the show’s over go to non-profit radio dot net and then from there you can get the itunes non-profit radio dot net is the list of the shows in the archive. From there you can view the show in itunes and give us a rating one through five podcast listeners. Please do that let’s, get to one hundred ratings and help share the show with mohr charities, and i thank you very much for your help with that, our foreign language. Good luck, the way performers say it feature is over. I’m declaring it over, it has had enough. We were everywhere from serbia. Yeah, serbian, croatian, teo french, and we’ve we’ve had enough. I’m saying sayonara, chow mary-jo to that feature, our creative producer is claire meyerhoff. Sam liebowitz is our line producer. The show’s social media is by regina walton of organic social media, on the remote producer of tony martignetti non-profit radio is john federico of the new rules. I hope you’ll be with me next friday, one to two p, m eastern at talking alternative dot com, which is talking alternative broadcasting. Hyre think that shooting the good ending. You’re listening to the talking alternative network, waiting to get in. Nothing. Cubine hi, i’m donna and i’m done were certified mediators, and i am a family and couples licensed therapists and author of please don’t buy me ice cream are show new beginnings is about helping you and your family recover financially and emotionally and start the beginning of your life will answer your questions on divorce, family court, co, parenting, personal development, new relationships, blending families and more dahna and i will bring you to a place of empowerment and belief that even though marriages may end, families are forever join us every monday, starting september tenth at ten a m on talking alternative dot com are you suffering from aches and pains? Has traditional medicine let you down? Are you tired of taking toxic medications? Then come to the double diamond wellness center and learn how our natural methods can help you to hell? Call us now at to one to seven to one eight one eight three that’s to one to seven to one eight one eight three or find us on the web at www dot double diamond wellness dot com way look forward to serving you. You’re listening to talking alternative network at www dot talking alternative dot com, now broadcasting twenty four hours a day. This is tony martignetti aptly named host of tony martignetti non-profit radio. Big non-profit ideas for the other ninety five percent technology fund-raising compliance, social media, small and medium non-profits have needs in all these areas. My guests are expert in all these areas and mohr. Tony martignetti non-profit radio fridays, one to two eastern on talking alternative broadcasting are you fed up with talking points? Rhetoric everywhere you turn left or right spin ideology no reality, in fact, its ideology over in tow. No more it’s time. Join me. 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